Volodymyr Zelensky has embarked on a three-week marathon of foreign visits seeking seamless international support for the defense of Ukraine according to his plans, without ceding a political or military inch to Russia. The Ukrainian president recognized on May 21 The New York Timesthat its Western allies “are hesitating” and that “everyone is leaving the door ajar for Russia.” Six days later, on May 27, Zelensky began an intense agenda of meetings in Spain that included visiting at least 10 countries.
Zelensky was among the rulers invited this Thursday at the commemoration of the 80th anniversary of the Normandy Landings. The message was twofold, of remembrance of the victory against Nazism and now, of a common front against Russian imperialism. But even in the run-up to the anniversary of D-Day, kyiv’s fear that its partners would leave the door ajar to Moscow was exposed: the French Government announced in April that it would invite a Russian delegation to the commemoration; The proposal was finally canceled after criticism received from the United States, the United Kingdom and also Ukraine.
Zelensky will meet this Friday in Paris with the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in a meeting that is expected to be full of symbolism. Although French military aid to Ukraine is notably less than that of Germany or Britain, Macron has adopted a more challenging discourse with Russia and is closer to the Ukrainian leader than that of other great powers. “Zelensky has sought to create a moment of opportunity for his European policy, placing France with a greater initiative to support Ukraine,” according to Léonie Allard, a researcher at the Atlantic Council, in an analysis this Wednesday.
Europe, with Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz at the helm, is showing less hesitation with Ukraine than the United States, locked in the early stages of the presidential elections. The probable Republican candidate, Donald Trump, is in favor of turning off the tap on military aid for Ukraine. And the Democrats, as reported by US media such as Politicalprefer that the invasion take a backseat during the presidential elections for fear of an electoral bill.
For all these reasons, Zelensky was in Madrid on May 27, on the 28th in Lisbon and Brussels, and on May 31 in Stockholm, where he signed 10-year bilateral defense treaties with the governments of Norway, Sweden and Iceland. He did the same in Portugal and Belgium, and before that in Spain. President Pedro Sánchez committed to record military assistance from Spain, of more than 1.1 billion euros this year, plus the support of the Executive in Ukraine’s aspirations to access NATO, the biggest red line that Western powers are facing. avoiding crossing for fear of escalating the conflict with Russia into a world war.
Tension with Washington
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The Ukrainian president was able to meet on the beaches of Normandy with his American counterpart, Joe Biden, after two weeks of bilateral tensions. Biden’s personal resistance to allowing the weapons provided by his army to kyiv to be used to destroy military positions on Russian soil has fueled “the greatest moment of tension and distancing in relations between the United States and Ukraine,” as indicated last week. passed to Financial Times sources from both governments. The veto was finally lifted, but Biden continues to deny that the Ukrainian Armed Forces use their long-range ATACMS missiles on Russian soil, which is precisely the military resource that kyiv most strongly demands to be able to use against enemy targets.
Zelensky spoke words on May 28 in Brussels that made the White House uncomfortable. Biden has ruled out his presence at the Peace Summit to be held on June 15 and 16 in Switzerland. It is a meeting in which more than 100 States will participate to discuss forms of support for Ukraine and Zelensky’s 10-point plan for hypothetical peace negotiations with Russia. The US president will not attend because on those dates he will attend a fundraising event for his campaign in California. Biden’s absence, Zelensky said, “will only be applauded by Vladimir Putin, and it will be a standing ovation.” “I think the Peace Summit needs Biden,” Zelensky added, “and other countries need Biden because they will be watching the decisions of the United States.”
The American president will not be in Switzerland, but he will meet Zelensky again at the G-7 summit of heads of state and government, which will be held in Italy from June 13 to 15. One of the points that will be discussed is the transfer of part of Russia’s assets frozen in Ukraine’s allied countries to finance the defense and reconstruction of this country. The obstacles to this are not only in the legal complexity of the operation, but also in the misgivings about taking the clash with Russia to another level.
China is Russia’s main ally on the international stage, both economically and diplomatically. Beijing will not attend the Swiss Peace Summit, following the logic that any discussion on ending the war is only productive if Moscow participates. Zelensky has played a risky card in these weeks of international travel: directly attacking China. On June 1, from Singapore, the Ukrainian leader accused the Beijing authorities of sabotaging his peace proposals to favor Russia. From Singapore Zelensky traveled to the Philippines, a country that has tense territorial disputes with China. On June 5, on his return trip to Europe to attend the events of the Normandy Landings, the Ukrainian president met in Doha with the emir of Qatar, Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, one of the few States, along with Turkey and to other Arab countries, which are mediating between Russia and Ukraine.
The chances of expelling Russia from Ukraine by military means are slim. Mikola Bielieskov, a leading analyst and researcher at the National Institute for Strategic Studies, a center dependent on the Ukrainian presidency, published a study last week in which he pointed out that a “realistic strategic victory for Ukraine” will be having sufficient resources to defend the territory. not occupied by Russia in the next year and a half.
Both Zelensky and other representatives of his Government have publicly admitted that the more months of war that pass, the more complex it is to negotiate military support from allies that could turn the situation around. The clearest example was the more than half a year that Republicans and Democrats needed to finally agree in April on the last multi-million dollar shipment of weapons for Ukraine.
In an interview with Morning Express on May 31, researcher at the University of Bern Oksana Mishlovska confirmed that “in contrast to what happens in Ukraine, where non-dominant voices in favor of an agreed exit or a Korean scenario are silenced [un alto el fuego que deje una Ucrania partida en dos realidades opuestas], in the European Union and beyond opinions are visibly divided.” Zelensky’s agenda focuses precisely on persuading the international community that it cannot give in to Russia even an iota. Time and a war front favorable to the Kremlin are working against them.
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