The war may end next year if Ukraine is invited “now” to join NATO. This was stated this Wednesday by its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, before the Rada. Zelensky presented his so-called “plan for victory” in the plenary session of the Ukrainian Parliament. The first point of this document is to immediately formally ensure that Ukraine will be the next member of the Atlantic Alliance. The Ukrainian leader added that in exchange for this entry into NATO and greater military intervention by the allies, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will provide their soldiers after the end of the war to defend the territory of other European States. To convince the future president of the United States, Zelensky specifically proposes that part of the American military contingent in Europe be replaced by Ukrainian troops.
Criticism of Zelensky intensified in Ukraine because the president had already revealed this “plan for victory” to the political leaders of the United States, Germany, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, but not to the society of his country. Zelensky addressed the Rada a day before he presents the plan to the European Council. To defend this order of priorities, the Ukrainian president has argued that the end of the war depends in the first instance on his allies: his argument is that only if his partners support the measures in the document, Russia will be forced to negotiate peace.
“The plan for victory is a guarantee that the madmen in the Kremlin lose the opportunity to continue the war. The plan for victory is a bridge to the implementation of the peace formula and the path to honest diplomacy,” Zelensky said. The peace formula is the plan that Ukraine develops to establish the rules to seal the end of the war with the invader along with 80 countries, a proposal that Russia does not accept.
The five main lines of the plan
Much of the plan remains secret, but the Ukrainian leader has confirmed his five main lines:
First. Ukraine should immediately be formally invited to join NATO. It is the starting point, Zelensky said: “Because it is our partners’ way of demonstrating their determination for the security of Ukraine.”
There is a consensus among the Alliance States that Ukraine’s future lies in NATO, but there has been no formal request for it to join. Zelensky has demanded that this invitation be processed “now” so that it materializes in the near future. “We know that joining NATO is in the future, not in the present, but Putin has to see that his geopolitical calculations are losing,” said the Ukrainian president.
Second. Ukraine must continue to conduct military operations inside Russia, either by land, as is now happening in the Kursk province, or by air, with its periodic drone attacks. This is the only way to prove to the Kremlin that Russia is vulnerable, Zelensky repeated. The president has indicated that for this it is essential that the United States gives authorization to use long-range missiles on Russian soil and that the Pentagon provides kyiv with access to its satellite intelligence information.
Third. The third point of the plan for victory calls for the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, France and Italy to establish “deterrence” weapons in Ukraine, another level of arms support. Although without actually installing nuclear weapons, Zelensky said.
Room. The fourth point focuses on guaranteeing the economic development of Ukraine with incorporation into the European Union and a special program for the exploitation of minerals of key importance for the global industry such as lithium, uranium, titanium and graphite.
Fifth. Zelensky has proposed that once the war ends, his Armed Forces will replace part of the US military contingent based in Europe. This idea, which is the most striking of those known so far, is designed to convince the American political class that supporting Ukraine is also reducing the defense responsibility of the United States in Europe. The Republican majority in Congress and its candidate for the presidential elections, Donald Trump, are committed to turning off the tap on war assistance for Ukraine. Zelensky’s approach would also serve to keep part of the million members of his army active.
“When the war ends, Ukraine will have one of the largest and most experienced armies,” the president stressed, “Ukrainian experience must be used to strengthen the defense of NATO and the security of Europe.” “If the partners accept it, we contemplate replacing certain contingents of the United States forces in Europe with Ukrainian units,” he stressed.
pessimistic situation
Zelensky is seeking one last coup to reverse the increasingly difficult situation on the war front and the increasing pressure from the Allied ranks to close a war that faces “growing European fatigue,” as he admitted on Tuesday in the Financial Times the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Finland, Elina Valtonen. Fatigue is not only detected in the increase in the influence of populist parties that are committed to ending support for Ukraine, but also in the budget accounts of France and Germany. French Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu admitted on Tuesday that his government will not comply this year with the 3 billion euros of military assistance for kyiv that it had committed. Germany, Ukraine’s second largest defense partner after the United States, has significantly reduced supplies to stop the Russian invader, with the exception of air defense systems.
The main risk for kyiv is in the United States. An electoral victory for Trump would be a shakeup in the Western Alliance in favor of Ukraine. But even Joe Biden’s Administration has leaked to the media that Zelensky’s “plan for victory” does not convince them, especially because it is not very concrete. “The general consensus in Washington is that the plan for victory must be better formulated, more specific. “If Washington, London and the West provide certain weapons, what will they be used for and in what period of time?” he told the Ukrainian media. N.V. Melinda Harlin, analyst at the Atlantic Council geopolitical think tank.
The Ukrainian Government has assured that London has committed to delivering the plan for victory with new proposals. But British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, in favor of striking Russian soil with long-range missiles, warned Zelensky last week that this weaponry will not be decisive in turning the war around.
Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a veteran British diplomat, warned on October 14 in an analysis for RUSI, the United Kingdom’s main defense analysis institute, that the greatest risk is that Ukraine feels “betrayed” by the West. It would be in this situation where Euroscepticism and corrupt political forces close to Russia would emerge. Willasey-Wilsey does not cite another threat that Zelensky’s party has pointed out, in the event of a war defeat: the rise of ultranationalist groups.
“Despite decades of debate on European defense, it has been shown that it was too comfortable to depend on the American weight,” the expert noted. “This has made Europe a prisoner of the American elections.” Zelensky will talk about these risks and how to save Ukraine this Thursday at the European Council.
