Reuters yesterday (18.3) reported that gold price surpassed $ 3,000/ounce, reaching a new record – namely the price of 3,017.64 USD/ounce.
Unpredictable developments
Accordingly, gold price increased by 15% compared to 2,623 USD/ounce at the end of December 2024. That is not to mention the 27% increase in only 2024. The above movements make the global financial industry quickly change the forecast of gold price in the near future.
Many factors are causing gold prices to rise
Specifically, ANZ Bank forecasts that in the next 3 months, the price of gold increases to 3,100 USD/ounce and in the next 6 months will be US $ 3,200/ounce. For gold prices, ANZ representatives announced: “We maintain the viewpoint of price increase, in the context of strong winds from geopolitical and escalating trade tensions, monetary policy loosen and strong buying from central banks.”
Similarly, UBS Bank has raised the gold price forecast from now until June that can reach $ 3,200/ounce, while the previous forecast for the same period is only $ 3,000/ounce. “With the gold price that has now achieved the goal before we set out of $ 3,000/ounce, the main question is whether the gain to continue. We think we will continue to increase when the policy risks and trade conflicts continue to increase, making gold a” shelter “safe for investors,” according to the representative of UBS strategist group.
In fact, gold price increased after US President Donald Trump ordered the country’s army to attack Houthi forces’s facilities in Yemen. At the same time, the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip seemed to be broken, Israel attacked again against this land, and the peaceful signal for Ukraine has not flourished.
Many reasons “push” gold prices
One of the important reasons for gold becomes a “shelter” for the present time is that the US economic situation is quite pessimistic.
Recently, the US stock market has been seriously reduced. CNBC cited statistics showing that the US stock market has lost more than $ 5,000 billion in market value in just 3 weeks. Specifically, the market value of S&P 500 at the highest level on February 19 was 52,060 billion USD but on March 13, the continuous decline made the market only 46,780 billion USD. By yesterday, according to American media, the stock market of this country has not shown signs of prosperity, even continues to decline, but the reason is that investors are concerned about the risk of economic downturn.
On the same day, March 18, The Hill quoted a number of sources of analyzing the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in this week’s meeting that will continue to postpone the change of operating interest rates for concerns about the country’s economic situation.
Not only that, investors are also worried about the global supply chain fault caused by the trade policy of President Donald Trump’s administration.
Analysts have evaluated the policies to increase the import tax that Mr. Trump is imposing goods to some economies that can increase the US inflation because the reality of the country has not been able to control a lot of consumer goods. This is one of the reasons why analysts of financial groups Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs all forecast that the US inflation will increase and economic growth will decrease. Not stopping there, the GDPNOW analysis model of the Federal Reserve Bank in Atlanta (USA) also predicts that the country’s economy not only does not grow, but may also be reduced in the first quarter of 2025.
According to a recent report sent by Moody’s Analysis Company (under the Moody’s Financial Service Group) to young people, tariff policies, warriors and governments to reduce spending, leading to inflation showing signs of increasing again in the US, causing the Fed to delay the cutting of operating interest rates. When the Fed is more cautious, it will lead to the loosening of the global currency that will take place slower than expected. This affects the global economy. Thus, gold increases the role of “shelter”.
In terms of supply and demand, many investment funds have also increased gold purchase. Bloomberg quoted customs data that the value of gold import and other precious metals into the US reached US $ 30.8 billion in January 2025, while this figure was only 10.7 billion USD in the last month of 2024. Further comparison, the import average of this portfolio in 2022 and 2023 only reached an average of about US $ 1.7 billion/month.
