Who will Spain face in the round of 16? This is what our prediction model says

Spain has finished the group stage as first classified and awaits an opponent in the round of 16. We once again turn to our statistical model to try to answer this question: Who will Luis de la Fuente’s team play against?

Slovakia and Ukraine, with 32%, are the most likely rivals for the model. They are followed by Romania (15%) and Belgium (8%), all from group E. With fewer options there are teams from other groups, such as Turkey, Austria or Georgia.

Slovakia and Romania would be the most affordable rivals, according to Morning Express’ ranking, which takes into account the strength of the team – measured with an Elo method – and the value of its players. Slovaks and Romanians have 45 points in this classification, far from Spain’s 80. Ukraine, who we could also face, has 64 points.

In the table above there are teams from several groups, but the four most likely are from E. This is explained by UEFA’s selection method for the cross-overs, which foresees different matchups depending on which third parties qualify. For our model, the most likely thing is that the third parties from groups A, D, E and F (45%) or those from A, C, D and E (42%) advance to the round of 16. In both cases, the UEFA table indicates that Spain’s rival would leave group E.

What options does each team have to be in the round of 16?

With Germany, Switzerland, Spain, Italy and Portugal mathematically in the round of 16, there are still 11 teams left to meet. In the following graphs you can see what probability each selection has of reaching the next round according to the model.

France, the Netherlands, England and four other teams have more than a 90% chance of advancing according to our model. Croatia still has options, but it depends on a carom that for our model only has 3% options.

Which teams are now the favorites of the tournament?

With eight games remaining in the group stage, our model maintains its preferences without major alterations. There have been no surprises and the best teams will be in the round of 16 without any setbacks. Their chances of winning the tournament remain similar to those at the beginning:

And how is the Copa América going?

Last week we also launched a prediction model for the American tournament. The methodology is essentially the same, but with only 16 teams competing in the tournament. After the first day, Argentina is confirmed as favorite: it started the tournament with a 34% chance of winning and now has 38%. Brazil has fallen back in its expectations after its 0-0 draw against Bolivia and has gone from 27% to 21%.