On September 26, 2022, the waters of the Baltic Sea witnessed a sabotage of a magnitude not seen since World War II. One of the Nord Stream pipelines, which transported natural gas directly from Russia to Western Europe without passing through Ukrainian territory, was destroyed with explosives in an area of intense maritime traffic. Since then, various journalistic revelations have tried to shed light – sometimes with opposite conclusions – on one of the most shocking events that followed Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Who blew up the Nord Stream, according to the latest journalistic investigation?
The exclusive published by The Wall Street Journal This Thursday, the US newspaper pointed to Ukraine, saying that its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, initially authorized the operation. Then, when the CIA found out about it and asked to cancel it, it tried to stop it and couldn’t. The idea of sabotage arose one night in May 2022, six months before the explosions, during a dinner filled with alcohol in which a group of senior Ukrainian military officials and businessmen were celebrating their country’s success in stopping the Russian invasion, according to the American newspaper.
The plan was executed by a small group of military and civilian divers, financed (at an approximate cost of 273,000 euros) by businessmen and supervised by Ukrainian army officers (including Colonel Roman Chervinsky), according to the testimony of four direct sources who participated in the operation or had direct knowledge of it.
What facts corroborate this story?
The day before, on Wednesday, three German media outlets had published the first major breakthrough in the judicial investigation into the events: the German prosecutor’s office issued an arrest warrant last June against one of the team members, a Ukrainian citizen who lived in Poland until his recent disappearance; it is believed that he has fled to Ukraine.
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The identity of the man, a professional diver named Volodymyr Z., has been confirmed, as have those of two other suspects, a Ukrainian couple who run a diving school. Polish authorities have confirmed that they have received the German request.
What is known about how the attack was organized?
The German authorities – the only country still investigating the events after Denmark and Sweden abandoned their inquiries earlier this year – are completely silent, but several journalistic investigations have revealed details of the investigation.
A team of six people with diving skills was created for the sabotage, including a woman, who provided the cover that they were a group of friends sailing in the Baltic. They set sail from Rostock, on the northern coast of Germany, on the sailing ship Andromedachartered through a Polish travel agency and using forged passports. The investigation has allowed the approximate route and stops to be reconstructed. The boat was returned in a hurry and was not thoroughly cleaned, which allowed the German police to find traces of explosives and DNA samples.
Why did most experts initially point the finger at Russia?
Firstly, because the attack fits into the so-called hybrid war that Russia is waging against the West through sabotage, disinformation and confusion. Because of the depth of the gas pipeline, which lies on the seabed more than 70 metres below the surface, experts also did not believe that the operation could be carried out without the support of a state, that is, without sophisticated military means.
Over time, it has been shown that the amount of explosives needed was not as high as originally thought, and it has been proven that civilian divers with experience in deep water can access the area. A German media consortium rented a boat and a team of divers and reconstructed the scene for an award-winning documentary (Tatort East Sea; Crime scene Baltic Sea).
Will it ever be known exactly what happened?
Probably not. The judicial and police investigation is very limited. The only suspect for whom the German prosecutor’s office has issued an arrest warrant has disappeared and Ukraine is not extraditing its nationals. Poland did not execute the warrant within the 60 days required by European regulations. According to sources quoted by German media, “Warsaw seems never to have been really interested in solving the case.”
He Süddeutsche Zeitung has revealed that the recordings of the port of the Polish city of Kolobrzeg, where the saboteurs docked with the Andromeda From September 19 to 20, they had already been deleted when German investigators requested them.
Is a false flag operation excluded?
No, and there are still media outlets that insist that this theory (an operation carried out with the intention of accusing a third party of being the author) is still valid, although the latest news makes it less credible.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly denied that he had any knowledge of or authorised the operation. The first indications of alleged Ukrainian authorship were published in March 2023, based on the nationality of the submariners.
What are the consequences of the exclusivity for aid to Ukraine?
If it is proven that kyiv ordered the pipeline to be blown up, it could call into question the future of European support for Ukraine, both military and financial. Especially in the case of Germany, since the infrastructure was its own and it is the continental partner that contributes the most to the Ukrainian defence effort.
Berlin continues to support Ukraine against the aggressor power and insists that nothing has changed. Geert Wilders, the far-right leader whose Party for Freedom (PVV) heads the new Dutch government, has submitted three questions to parliament raising the possibility of reviewing aid to kyiv if it is confirmed that it was behind the sabotage.
How will it impact the upcoming German regional elections?
The news that Zelensky himself initially authorized the operation will undoubtedly be a focus of election campaigns in the three regions of the former East Germany (Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg) that hold elections in September. The WSJ exclusive favors the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the left-wing populist Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, which reject arms deliveries to Ukraine and advocate abandoning sanctions against Russia. AfD has even called for the reconstruction of Nord Stream and the resumption of Russian gas imports. AfD leads the polls in all three regions.
Could Nord Stream get back up and running?
The pipeline, which runs at a depth of around 70 metres, runs along a 1,200-kilometre route through the territorial waters of five countries: Russia, Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Germany. Nord Stream 1 was inaugurated in 2011 by the then German chancellor, Angela Merkel. Nord Stream 2 was the newest and largest pipeline. Its construction was completed in 2021 and it had not yet come into operation: Berlin halted it just days before Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. One of the Nord Stream 2 lines – each pipeline consists of two parallel pipes – is intact and could theoretically pump gas again.
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