Trump was just found guilty in the Stormy Daniels case, but so far his appointments with justice do not penalize his polls. Five months before the elections, his return to the White House is more than possible. The Real Clear Politics poll average gives the tycoon 0.9 points advantage about Joe Biden:
In 2023 the polls were even and both candidates exchanged first place. In 2024, however, the advantage has always been for Trump. His last sharp decline occurred in the weeks before the start of the trial for the Stormy Daniels case. Then they improved and stabilized. In the next week, when new polls arrive, we will know if the verdict ends up weakening his candidacy.
Other forecasts agree that Trump will be in the lead for the November elections. According to the Metaculus platform – a community of thousands of users dedicated to predicting – the Republican candidate has a 55% chance to return to the White House:
This community has almost continuously improved Trump’s expectations since late last year, as he prevailed in his party’s primaries. Although Metaculus put Biden ahead in early March, it then shot Trump’s chances up to 55% in the middle of the same month, coinciding with the vehement show of support from Republican Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House of Representatives.
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From yesterday to today, after Trump was found guilty, his chances at Metaculus have worsened a little, but only by one point.
What’s to come for Trump
Key events remain on the Republican candidate’s agenda, starting with his own sentencing. Stormy Daniels case, scheduled for next July 11. Below we detail the judicial and electoral appointments that the tycoon will still have to go through before the November 5 elections.
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