Seven weeks before the vote, and after months of ups and downs, the election to choose the president of the United States remains absolutely open, with the vote in seven or eight states still in the hands of the vote.
Our average predictions say Kamala Harris has a 53% chance of winning, but that means her rival, Donald Trump, has almost the same chance, 47%. The figures come from combining six forecasts that we find reliable, from the model based on polls of The Economist (52% of options for Harris), the Polymarket prediction market (51%), betting (52%) or the forecasters of the Metaculus platform (55%).
Another reason for caution is that expectations have been on a downward spiral over the past three months, as illustrated by the evolution of forecasts:
In June, Trump’s chances of victory were at 55%, according to forecasters, who raised their chances to 75% in mid-July, at their peak, after the disastrous debate with Joe Biden, then his rival, and just after the attack on the Republican. Then Kamala Harris came along and turned the tables. The vice president made her final breakthrough this week, when she had a good debate.
The first sign that the odds are so close are the national polls. In those polls, Harris is three points ahead, with an estimated 49% of the vote, compared to Trump’s 46%. However, the election will actually be decided in certain territories.
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The situation in key states
Occupying the White House requires obtaining 270 delegates or electoral votes on election day, adding up those distributed by each state, with the particularity that the candidate who wins a territory takes all of its delegates. For Harris and Trump, it is essential to win in as many places as possible, but it does not matter if they do so by one vote or a million. In addition, with the current distribution of forces, it is normal for the Democrats to need more votes to reach the presidency. In 2020, Biden beat Trump by 4.5 points in the national vote, and won the presidency with 306 delegates. However, four years earlier, in 2016, Hillary Clinton lost to Trump, although she won the national vote by 2.1 points.
That is why a handful of states are essential.
There are seven that are expected to be decisive: Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina. These territories allocate 93 electoral votes (out of 538 total), and their electorates are divided, so they can fall to the Republican or Democratic side. In addition, in Nebraska, which has a particular system of apportionment, there is another electoral vote that could change hands and that, although unlikely, could end up being decisive.
The rest of the states are very much to be considered; they can be considered safe or likely for the Democrats (225 electoral votes), or safe or likely for the Republicans (219).
In 2016, Trump won six of the seven key states (all but Nevada), and Biden did so in 2020 by winning another six (all but North Carolina).
The situation now? All seven states are up for grabs. Trump has a lead in North Carolina (60% chance of winning, according to Metaculus) and Harris has a lead in Michigan (63%) and Wisconsin (60%). But predicting the winner of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania is practically a toss-up.
The tremendous equality in these four states explains why the elections are currently unpredictable. Moreover, unless there is a profound change, due to an unexpected event or news, the uncertainty will continue until election night and the US presidency will be decided by a handful of votes in one part of the country.
