This article is a shipment from thenewsletter by Kiko Llaneras, a newsletter for Morning Express subscribers:sign up here.
The polls in Spain maintain the Popular Party as the leading force, with 33% or 34% of the votes, still ahead of the PSOE (30%). They are followed by Vox (10%), Sumar (6%), Podemos (3.7%), Junts (2.3%) and the coalitions Ahora Repúblicas (4.5%) and Por una Europa Solidaria (1.7% ).
Furthermore, almost all polls give representation to a new candidate, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SAF), led by the agitator Alvise Pérez. With an estimated 2% or 3% vote, my calculations are that some MEP will win with a probability of 85%. Maybe more than one.
The graph below shows my seating estimate. The PP will have around 23 MEPs, followed by PSOE (20), Vox (6) and Sumar (4). The entry of Irene Montero with Podemos seems almost certain. That of Ciudadanos is possible, but difficult (30%).
The ranges are wide—up to four seats—but they are not capricious: they reflect the precision that polls have had in the past. We cannot rule out, for example, that the PSOE continues its positive trend and achieves a better result. In fact, according to these simulations: there is an 8% chance that PSOE and PP will tie for seats, and a 20% chance that the socialists will come first.
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Who will control the European Parliament
Although it is inevitable to read the results in a national key, what is really at stake this Sunday are the majorities to control the European Parliament. There community laws are made and the budget is approved. In addition, MEPs will be in charge of electing the president of the European Commission.
But what do the polls say?
I have made an average of three projections, which are prepared with country-by-country surveys. The European People’s Party will be the largest group in the chamber, with 170 or 180 MEPs, followed by the Social Democrats (140), the liberals of Renew (81), the right-wing and far-right forces of ECR (77) and Identity and Democracy ( 67), the Greens (51) and the Left (36).
They are approximate figures. First, due to the normal uncertainty of the polls; but also because it is expected that about 100 seats will be for forces that, at least for the moment, are not attached to any group.
But these indicative figures are enough to think about the chamber’s agreements, which will be decisive. For example, a majority is needed to decide the presidency of the European Commission. Five years ago, Ursula Von der Leyen, who is now seeking re-election, was elected in a government agreement between three groups: popular, social democrats and liberals.
What majorities will be possible after Sunday’s vote? The polls almost rule out a left-wing pact (with social democrats, Greens and the Left), because they have about 226 MEPs and are far from the 361 necessary. A pure right-wing agreement (with PPE, ERC and ID) also does not seem likely, politically, although it adds up to about 320 seats and it is not impossible for it to be arithmetically viable.
That leaves two main options. The first is an agreement between the EPP and the liberals of Renew and the extreme right of ECR. According to estimates, they will be around 330 or 340 seats, which means that their chances of reaching the majority do not reach 50%. And then they would have to agree.
The alternative is that the great coalition between popular and social democrats is reissued. With the support of Renew, the three groups are approaching 400 seats, which would be a comfortable majority. They could also add the Greens, or lean on them instead of the Liberals. One of these grand coalition formulas seems the most likely result, due to its numbers and the precedent of 2019.
Methodology. Our calculation of seats results from a three-step process: 1) we start from the vote estimated by an average of surveys; and 2) we calculate the seats according to the D’Hondt method. For probability calculations, we incorporate the uncertainty of the surveys taking into account their historical accuracy; and we simulate 20,000 elections. Canread more about it here.
🇪🇺 2. More about the Europeans
My colleagues Yolanda Clemente and Javier Galán have prepared a visual guide to the elections, with six key graphics to understand what and how to vote.
We have also analyzed the growth of the extreme right in Europe. In the nineties, these forces barely accounted for 3% of the vote in national elections. They grew from there, and in 2015 they took a leap forward: in a decade they have doubled their support, going from 9% to 19%. We analyze this trend and the strength of each party, country by country.
🇲🇽 3. Elections in Mexico
On Sunday Claudia Sheinbaum became the first woman to preside over that country. We publish a map with the results in each census section. And also an x-ray, widely shared on networks: Who voted for Sheinbaum? And Gálvez? This is how her support was by age, sex and income.
🏆 4. What does Madrid have against statistics?
Real Madrid has played nine Champions League finals to win them all, producing a probabilistic abnormality. As I said on Sunday, that streak was only supposed to happen one in three hundred times.
I did the numbers using an Elo rating, but Madrid’s triumphant sequence also surprises the betting market. If someone had bet on the whites in the last five finals, they would have multiplied their money 25 times.
Another sign that the streak is very rare? It’s been three times since I wrote that article! The sequence of victories was already improbable in 2018, even more so in 2022 and even more so now. Here we continue.
This article is a shipment from thenewsletter by Kiko Llaneras, a newsletter for Morning Express subscribers:sign up here.
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