The forecasts have barely changed this week, and the little they have moved has been to increase equality: Donald Trump’s victory has risen slightly, going from 44% to 45% in probability, according to the average of predictions that we are updating.
As the table shows, the Republican’s numbers have improved a little in the FiveThirtyEight and in prediction markets.
In reality, the change is small and the race is almost frozen. Since the electoral debate, a couple of weeks ago, there has hardly been any movement. In national polls Harris is three points up, just a few tenths better than in August. Furthermore, the determining fight, which is the so-called key states, barely registers changes in its data.
The situation in key states
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As we already explained, the election actually depends on the result in each State. To win the presidency, candidates need 270 delegates, or electoral votes, adding those distributed by each place, which all go to the winning candidate of the constituency.
One more week, Harris has 226 probable or certain electoral votes, almost the same as Trump, who has 219. The remaining 94 correspond to the seven key states, the most disputed and right now the determining ones.
Among the colored states—the probable or safe ones—include some like Virginia, Minnesota, Texas or Florida, which could change color if a candidate wins or if there is a local surprise. But the outcome of the elections would still be unpredictable even if we knew with certainty that the polls would get it right.
The reason? A small deviation is enough to change the outcome of the seven key states. The following table summarizes the situation there:
Right now, Harris and Trump share the leadership in the decisive states, four to three. And not only that: their support is equal in all. An error of two points in the polls – which is perfectly normal – is enough for the seven decisive territories to all end up in red or blue. That’s why the predictions I talked about at the beginning describe a probabilistic tie.
The movements in the States have also been small. Trump has improved in the FiveThirtyEight model, and is slightly more favored in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. But Harris has not backed down in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Nevada, the States that give her the advantage and that she practically needs.
