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In Spain we will vote on June 9 to configure the next European Parliament, in elections that, inevitably, will also be read in a national key. Our average of polls places the Popular Party as the first force, with 34% or 35% of the votes, followed by the PSOE, which is around 30%. Behind them are Vox (10%), Sumar (6%) and Podemos (3%).
Nationalist parties participate in coalitions. Now Repúblicas is around 4.4% of the vote (with ERC, EH Bildu and BNG), and the Coalition for a Solidarity Europe is around 1.6% (with PNV and CC). The Junts independentists would achieve around 2.4%.
Finally, the polls point to the entry of another candidate, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SAF), led by the agitator Alvise Pérez. They place it above 2%, which is a considerable force. According to my calculations, the probability of having a seat is over 70%.
The following graph shows our estimate of seats based on previous votes. The transfer is very proportional, due to two characteristics of the electoral system that governs the European elections: the constituency is a single one, instead of the provinces, and there is no requirement to exceed any vote threshold to be eligible to obtain representation.
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The PP would have around 23 seats, four up or down, followed by PSOE (20), Vox (6) and Sumar (4). Irene Montero’s entry with Podemos also seems almost certain: she achieves it in 93% of the simulations. On the other hand, Ciudadanos, which has around 1% in votes, only gets seats with a probability of 35%.
Trends
The numbers above may still change. I dare say more than usual. First, because these elections have received little attention and there will be many voters still undecided. And second, because in reality the polls have been moving for weeks. The PSOE has risen in the last six weeks, going from 27% to 30% in voting intention, while Sumar fell a couple of points.
On the right, what we see is a decline of the PP, which has dropped a couple of points in the last month. His downturn coincides with the emergence of Pérez Alvise’s candidacy, although the raw data from the CIS says that the new party absorbs, above all, Vox voters and abstentionists from 2023.
The election night figure
The best national thermometer for June 9 will be to look at the total votes of the right. In the 2023 general elections, the sum of PP and Vox reached 45%, a figure that did not allow them to get close to the majority. Now, the European polls give them progress, although relative: they add up to 48% with Ciudadanos and SAF.
In any case, the level reached by the right-wing vote will serve to measure where the pendulum is now between left and right. As with the single European district, in general elections small national forces have a difficult time winning seats. In view of the formation of majorities, for the popular ones those votes are better in their hands, or in those of a potential partner, than not thrown away.
In any case, the level that the right-wing vote reaches will serve to see where the pendulum between left and right is now.
Methodology. Our calculation of seats results from a three-step process: 1) we start from the vote estimated by an average of surveys; and 2) we calculate the seats according to the D’Hondt method. For probability calculations, we incorporate the uncertainty of the surveys taking into account their historical accuracy; and we simulate 20,000 elections. Canread more about it here.
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