Ursula von der Leyen has tested the waters of a possible alliance with the extreme right and has noticed that they are murkier than she thought. The main candidate of the Popular European Party (EPP), who is running to repeat as president of the European Commission, is recalibrating her approach to the extreme right and is once again looking towards more moderate and pro-European forces such as the Greens, which can be decisive for her possible investiture if the leaders of the Twenty-seven propose her for the position after the elections to the European Parliament this Sunday. Von der Leyen is pragmatic: the latest polls conducted by the popular party suggest that the Greens and liberals (Renew group) are losing strength, but less than expected, and that if the pattern is maintained, a great moderate coalition like the one that has supported the EU for the last 70 years.
The head of the community Executive has been flirting for months with the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and with her ultra group, the European Reformists and Conservatives (ECR), which includes, in addition to the Brothers of Italy, the Spanish Vox and the Polish ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS). Von der Leyen considers Meloni’s party to be an acceptable far-right, compared to the National Regrouping of the Frenchwoman Marine Le Pen. But her flexible cordon sanitaire is helping to normalize extremists and is taking a toll on increasingly right-leaning traditional conservatives. Furthermore, the progressive parties have warned the German that they will not support her if she allies herself with the far right.
The Netherlands voted on Thursday in the European Parliament elections, and the exit polls coincide with the European data handled by the conservatives. The far-right of Geert Wilders – who will lead the new government coalition after winning the general elections in November 2023 – has increased in support, but the progressive alliance of social democrats and greens (GroenLinks-PvdA) resists and wins, according to the foot survey ballot box from public television NOS.
Thus, Von der Leyen now looks again towards the European group The Greens, which he considers a much more reliable and constructive formation than the ultras formations. The environmentalists, who abstained five years ago in the confirmation in the European Parliament of the head of the community Executive – when the German was inaugurated by a margin of nine votes -, do not rule out supporting her this time if with that they pull the emergency brake to avoid alliances with the ultras, says its former president Philippe Lamberts, who is not attending this year.
In exchange, Von der Leyen will have to commit to promoting the green agenda. It is something that the German prioritized during the legislature, but that has been relegated in recent times—and lightened—due to pressure from the right and the industry. With the polls in hand, and in the face of pressure from the Greens and large social democratic forces – such as Spain, which wants to place the vice president of Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, in one of the major positions and make it a green portfolio -, The conservative candidate could put on the environmentalist jacket again, although she will seek to separate agricultural issues after the sector’s protests.
The situation is extremely volatile in Europe. And the movements of Marine Le Pen – whose party can sweep France – and the Hungarian national-populist Viktor Orbán to create a great ultra alliance in the European Parliament may have results; even if it is in the medium term. A more right-wing and discordant European Parliament can make things very difficult for Von der Leyen and his Commission; although the German still does not rule out alliances with parties like Meloni’s – whose support it also needs in the European Council – for specific regulations and measures.
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To this volatility in Europe, with two wars on the horizon, Russia’s in Ukraine and Israel’s in Gaza, and with the prospect that the populist Donald Trump could return to the White House after the November elections in the United States, It is added that the Poles from PiS, Vox or even Meloni have toughened their ultra messages in recent days.
The EU is risking its credibility. And concern has been raised in part of the popular ranks. Von der Leyen, who although she is not officially attending the European elections, has embarked on an intense campaign with the EPP in several member states, came away somewhat shaken from his visit to Rome a few days ago. In sectors of Forza Italia, the party founded by Silvio Berlusconi, within the popular family, they have not liked the German conservative’s winks at her rival, Meloni, parliamentary sources acknowledge.
They are not the only ones. “I think we should not have any type of communication with these types of groups.” [de ultraderecha]”, says Christiana Xenofontos, candidate for the Democratic Rally (DISY), the main party in Cyprus and affiliated with the EPP, in an interview. “These political groups represent ideas that are very far from the democracy in which we believe and the values of inclusivity,” says Xenofontos, also vice president of the European Youth Forum.
The Cypriot candidate recognizes that in her party – as in the European group – “not everyone thinks the same” and there are important internal debates, given that one of the vice presidents of the Cypriot conservatives has left DISY to join the European lists of ELAM, the island formation linked to the former Greek neo-Nazi party Golden Dawn, which polls place as the third force and candidate for a European seat for the first time in its history. “It is time to differentiate ourselves from any element of the extreme right,” remarks Xenofontos, who warns that “limits” must be set.
The former president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker, from the moderate wing of the conservatives, has also warned against these alliances with the ultras. “I see a shift to the right within the EPP and I am fighting against it. “Anyone who supports the right too much runs the risk of falling out of the window,” he said in an interview with Luxemburger Wort.
The latest nods to far-right parties are awakening some within a popular group in which public dissenting voices about their right-wing and the whitewashing of the far-right have not been abundant. In fact, conservative parties have already allied with them to reach or sustain governments in countries such as Sweden, Austria or Croatia — and regional and local executives in Spain, with the alliances between PP and Vox.
Poland’s conservative Prime Minister Donald Tusk is also under pressure from the progressive wing of his government coalition and from PiS, which remains a strong rival. The ultra-conservative parties want to dynamit the current European project with their ultra-nationalist and Eurosceptic policies. And his populist messages are reaching a part of the electorate traumatized by the consequences of the pandemic, the uncertainty of wars and in search of identity in a world in a process of change. And that is leading these formations to scratch votes from the right.
With information from Andres Mourenza.
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