The battle for portfolios begins in the European Commission, the executive body of the EU. The power auction in which Member States demand a good position for their commissioner is heating up. Several leaders have already demanded from Ursula von der Leyen, who has yet to be confirmed by the European Parliament in her re-election as president, a portfolio with substantial economic powers. It is the price that the heads of State and Government asked last Thursday to nominate her and to help her with the voting discipline of her parties in the European Parliament. If she overcomes the parliamentary vote, which she may reach very close, the German conservative will demand two names per country, a man and a woman, to fit the appointments with better gender balance. Some leaders have already refused. At the moment, the majority of commissioner candidates are men.
The German Christian Democrat will not have it easy to close the puzzle. “She is promising similar portfolios to different Member States in exchange for their support,” says a high-ranking EU source. The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, who has cried out against the negotiation process of the EU leadership in which the three main political families – popular, social democrat and liberal – have isolated her for belonging to the ultra group, is negotiating an executive vice-presidency for Italy. The far-right leader abstained from nominating Von der Leyen last Thursday, at a high-voltage summit in Brussels, while she voted against the Portuguese socialist António Costa for the European Council and against the Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, as the new head of community diplomacy. This was to avoid going directly against the president of the Commission, but to express her rejection of the appointment process.
Some diplomats believe the gesture could be detrimental to her, but it was not a vote against her in any case. And Von der Leyen has long been courting Meloni – whom she considers to be an acceptable far-right party, unlike Marine Le Pen’s French party or the Alternative for Germany (AfD). Her MEPs from Brothers of Italy, a party with neo-fascist roots, could be decisive in the vote to confirm Von der Leyen, and the support of the Italian leader could also make a difference in a legislative period that is predicted to be extremely turbulent and difficult. Moreover, Italy is not only one of the founding countries of the EU; it is also the third largest economy in the community club.
The battle for the portfolios may heat up even more after the early legislative elections in France, with the first round this Sunday and the second on July 7, in which the polls give good results to the extreme right of the National Regroupment (RN) by Le Pen. If the ultras manage to form a government and there is a cohabitation of an RN prime minister (Le Pen’s dolphin, Jordan Bardella) with President Emmanuel Macron, the clash over powers could reach Brussels with the nomination of its commissioner. In the Elysée they warn that the competition is theirs and Macron has already said that he believes that Thierry Breton, who has been responsible for the Internal Market since 2019, should repeat the position. RN assures that the appointment would be up to the Government: “It is the prerogative of the prime minister,” claimed Le Pen, who is already eyeing the position for his party.
Breton is not the only name on the table. Among the countries that have already chosen their candidate for commissioner is, for example, Latvian Valdis Dombrovskis, now vice-president of the Commission, who has already spent 10 years in high-profile posts in the capital and will add another five years. The former prime minister of his country knows well the insides of the “gentle monster in Brussels”, as the German intellectual Hans Magnus Enzensberger contemptuously called the institutional framework of the EU, and that is worth a lot for a small country like Latvia, which to influence requires the skill of its representatives more than their light weight. A similar case is that of Slovakia, with the veteran Maros Sefcovic.
The majority of those who have already presented themselves, with the exception of Spain or Finland, are for now men. Something that can make it difficult for Von der Leyen to build the balance he seeks. If so, the German will demand a change from the Member States. Already in 2019, when he was building the community Executive, he claimed two names from the leaders. Some ignored it and others sent two, but not publicly, so as not to burn the candidates. Some also placed a very fragile candidate as a contrast to the one they really wanted to send. But the designations of each country are not subject to the needs of the German one, or do not only adhere to them. The internal balances of the governments, many of them coalitions, the national policy of each country or the preferences of those who have the power to designate the representative of each Member State in the Executive of the Union greatly determine the elections.
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Spain should also send two names, although the third vice-president and Minister for Ecological Transition, Teresa Ribera, who is seeking a vice-presidency related to energy and climate, has excellent credentials due to her technical profile, her knowledge of institutions and the balance of power. But the issues she will deal with, if she is finally appointed, will be conditioned by at least two elements: the competition between States for these departments and the action programme itself that Von der Leyen will draw up to obtain the support of Parliament. In the first, the crowded race of candidates for this type of portfolio with a strong economic content is evident. Lithuania, Slovenia, France, Ireland, Italy or the Czech Republic are among those known to be seeking these competencies.
Among those who reject the formula requested by Von der Leyen is Ireland, which has already said that it will not send two candidates. “On this occasion, respectfully and in accordance with the treaties, we have made the decision to submit a name. And we do it because we will send our finance minister [Michael McGrath]”Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said on Thursday. He also wants Michael McGrath in an economics portfolio (mostly related to Financial Services). The Government appoints him, who is part of the Fianna Fáil party, because when the political coalition that supports the Irish Executive was formed, it was agreed that the election would correspond to this group.
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