Edmundo González has a voting intention of 59.1% compared to 24.6% for Nicolás Maduro: Delphos and UCAB pollster
According to a study by the Center for Political and Government Studies at the Andrés Bello Catholic University (CEPyG-UCAB) and the pollster Delphos, presidential candidate Edmundo González Urrutia would win the presidential elections on July 28 with 59.1% of the voting intention. Nicolás Maduro would come in second with around 25% of the vote.
During the presentation of the results of the study, the director of Delphos, Félix Seijas, explained that in any of the scenarios of participation, high or moderate, the difference between both candidates will move between 20% and 34% in favor of the opposition.
Specifically, regarding the probability of voting, the study states that it is high: 48.2% of the sample; 5.5% medium-high and 23.5% moderate. The current potential to vote is 53.7% (approximately 9.1 million people), which added to the four million who belong to the moderate group, amounts to 13 million voters (77.1% of the electoral roll).
The director of the CEPyG of the UCAB, Benigno Alarcón, added that the probable scenario of the presidential elections of July 28 points in two directions: political transition or conflict due to electoral fraud. “The opposition seems to be at its best political and electoral moment today, while the government seems to be at its worst situation with an electoral gap that cannot be overcome through traditional fraud practices,” he indicated. If the electoral participation of the opposition remains the same, what statisticians call a “stunning election“with the victory of the opposition and the dilemma of the government to recognize the results or impose a fraud by force.
Finally, Seijas explained that of the 1,200 people surveyed, 30.6% defined themselves as Chavistas, 40% as oppositionists and 29.5% said they did not identify with any faction. Likewise, 71.3% of the sample thinks that a change of government is necessary or very necessary.