Just 21 days after turning the polls around, Kamala Harris is still ahead of Donald Trump in the race for the White House. Over the past few weeks, the Democratic candidate has been improving her position tenth by tenth, according to polls compiled by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) aggregator. She now has a 48.4% to achieve the presidency, against the 46.9% of the Republican.
President Joe Biden had been unable to achieve this margin for almost a year. When he announced his withdrawal as a candidate on July 21, he was 3.1 points behind former President Trump, whose forecasts were barely affected by his appearances in his court cases involving fraud or electoral interference, among others.
Nor does the withdrawal of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or his decision to support the tycoon seem to have had a significant impact on the race. Although a vote shift was initially feared, polls The New York Times reveal that it is unclear which candidate would benefit and show that Kennedy supporters are less likely to vote in November.
Favorite for 11 pollsters and in 23 states
Harris is the favorite for 11 of the 15 pollsters whose results are compiled by RCP, with advantages that reach up to 4 points. four houses The odds that give Trump victory range from 1 to 3 points. The situation by states also illustrates how close the electoral contest still is: the Democrat would have 23 States in their favor, to a greater or lesser extent, compared to the 27 States Republicans, according to forecasts by The Economist. Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are in play.
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Harris has also established herself as a favorite on Metaculus, a community of thousands of users dedicated to predicting and which has the best track record of accuracy. From July 20 to 21, the candidate went from a 17% to a 35% chance of being the next president. Since August 8, she has barely moved from the 55%.
Trump, who reached highs of 75% before Biden’s withdrawal, is now in the 46%.
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