The ultra constellation, that of Eurosceptic – even Europhobic – parties, shakes the European Parliament. The rise of far-right and ultra-nationalist formations in this Sunday’s elections not only consolidates their normalization, but also leads to a high-risk legislature for the European project. The ultra forces, which advocate dynamiting the current EU model, although diverse and divided into several families, will add significant amounts of power in a new European Parliament with the threat of blockade. The rise of the extreme right and populists, with special force in France and Germany – where it leaves the governments very affected, and also the Franco-German axis, driving force of the EU – weakens the alliance formed by the pro-Europeans. However, despite the blow, they retain the majority, according to the first polls.
The European People’s Party (EPP) would win the elections, with 186 seats, but the sum of the ultra forces represents more than 148 seats; above, therefore, the second party, the Socialists and Democrats, with 133. And that is without counting the parties that, like the Fidesz of the Hungarian national populist Viktor Orbán, are now without a political family, that is, in the group of not registered. The formations of the old European coalition, popular, social democrats and liberals account for 56% of the 720 seats in the European hemicycle. With the Greens, who are called to become the key and emergency brake on the extreme right, they would represent 63%. Environmentalists have already said that they would be willing to do so if the green deal is again highlighted as a priority.
The most important elections in the history of the European Parliament, with enormous internal and external threats to the EU, have failed to mobilize the electorate: the first provisional data suggest that only 51% of the more than 360 million citizens with the right to suffrage has voted, a figure similar to that of 2019.
The European People’s Party will have before it a historic and oceanic dilemma. He must now decide whether to continue his drift even further to the right and join the ultras – at least those he considers acceptable and with whom he has been flirting for months – or try to maintain an alliance with the Social Democrats, Liberals and Greens, groups that have lost force. They will not have an easy time resisting the onslaught of the Eurosceptic and Europhobic groups.
Ultranationalist forces have made big gains in France, where Marine Le Pen’s National Rally has swept away and doubled liberal President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance, which has called early legislative elections after the fiasco. They have won in Austria, with the FPÖ, according to the polls. Furthermore, the extremists of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) have come second in Germany, where Olaf Scholz’s Social Democrats have been seriously affected by their worst result in history. With the electoral projections in hand and in the absence of definitive results, more than 50% of the EU population is now under the extreme right as the first or second European force.
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The expansion of extremists and eurosceptics in the European Parliament – where they will try to influence green, economic, foreign or immigration policies and even future enlargement – can hinder a key legislature, with Russia’s war against Ukraine and Israel’s in Loop. All at an extremely volatile moment in the face of the prospect of a hypothetical return to the White House of Republican Donald Trump, which would leave the EU in an enormously complicated situation.
The European data puts the traditional conservatives in a huge dilemma, who decided months ago to blow up the cordon sanitaire that contained the extreme right and the Europhobes by approaching some of these parties, such as that of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, Brothers of Italy, a formation with fascist roots. The results of the European Parliament elections now also mark the election process for the main European positions: presidency of the Commission, European Council, the European Parliament and the High Representation of Foreign Policy of the EU.
The German Ursula von der Leyen, of the European People’s Party (EPP), aspires to repeat as head of the community Executive. She will need the leaders to nominate her – something she seems to consider done, but which remains to be seen in light of her flirtations during the campaign with the extreme right and the consequences they may have had – and then guarantee herself 361 votes in the European Parliament in a secret ballot process.
The elections to the European Parliament this Sunday have been played in the majority of countries – such as Spain – on a national basis, without going down to the arena to discuss the big issues that will mark the future of European citizenship. They also note, in Europe, the rise of populism and brown ultras, according to the first projections. And it confirms this because although the vote for the European Parliament is usually perceived as second-order – in fact there is usually a tradition of a certain hooligan or protest vote – it offers new evidence about the expansion of an extreme right that is already in government or aid coalitions. to support it in Italy, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic, the Netherlands, Hungary and Croatia.
At stake is the credibility of the EU, of the common project that has metamorphosed into today’s community club, with 27 member states, a single market, a legal umbrella in the form of a court of justice and a solidarity mechanism to bridge the gap. between rich and poor countries.
