Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán plans to uncork a few bottles of champagne if his ally on the other side of the Atlantic, Republican Donald Trump, wins the elections in the United States. While the majority of EU leaders are extremely concerned about the possibility of a victory for the tycoon against Democrat Kamala Harris on Tuesday and are already drawing up contingency plans to prevent and cushion the blow, the Hungarian national populist is one of the leaders who He anxiously awaits the victory of the candidate with whom he shares ultra-conservative ideology and a staunch defense of very tough measures against immigration.
He’s not the only one. Neither in Europe nor globally. A plethora of extremist parties and leaders, most cut from the same cloth of supposed strong man —from the Russian Vladimir Putin, the Israeli Benjamin Netanyahu or the Argentine Javier Milei— are waiting for the boost that a second Trump term would give to their own policies.
In Europe, Trump’s return to the White House, his influence and his connections in European ultra parties, could drive a “greater normalization” of far-right politics across the continent, says Georgios Samaras, professor of Public Policy at the King’s College London. Already in 2016 he paved the “legitimation of European parties of that kind,” he says.
And now they are stronger. They have added several victories throughout Europe—in Austria, in the Netherlands, in Italy, and they threaten to rise in Germany and France—and now the third largest group in the European Parliament is the extremist Patriots for Europe, made up of the Hungarian, Fidesz, the National Rally of the French Marine Le Pen, the Italian League, of Matteo Salvini, or the Party for Freedom, of the Dutch Geert Widers, sometimes nicknamed “the European Trump.” And they consider the Republican a “quasi-messianic” figure, says Samaras in an analysis.
In Europe, Orbán is his closest ally. The Hungarian, the only EU leader who has openly supported Trump, has invested heavily in building relationships with him and has forged deep ties with his entourage. But the truth is that, behind the scenes, there are others who are trying to become the bridge between the United States and Europe if the Republican wins a second term. Many believe that if this is the case, the reference partner in the EU will be the ultra-Italian Giorgia Meloni, who during her years in politics mentioned Trump as an inspiration.
The Italian Prime Minister has already cultivated a very good relationship with magnate Elon Musk (with companies such as SpaceX, Tesla or X), chosen by the Republican to lead “drastic reforms” of the federal government in the event of victory. Meloni, who is pragmatic and will work with whoever is in the White House, has the advantage of leading a G-7 country, but the weakness is that it dedicates less than 2% of its GDP to defense, as marked by its commitment to NATO. and something of extreme importance to Trump.
European leaders meet in Budapest on Thursday and Friday. His host Orbán – the most fractious partner of the EU and the closest to Putin – is already threatening to schedule a message or video conference from Trump if he wins. The national-populist met with the Republican in July as part of his self-proclaimed “peace mission” for Ukraine, after visiting the Russian leader in Moscow and the Chinese leader, Xi Jinping, in Beijing, and has assured that Trump has a plan to end “ quickly” Russia’s war against Ukraine.
Relationship with Putin
One of the EU’s biggest concerns is that a Trump victory would mean withdrawing US support from kyiv, forcing the invaded country to negotiate a bad deal and spurring Moscow’s imperialist desires.
Trump has maintained a relatively close relationship with Putin, even after leaving the White House, and at the time he even questioned information from his own intelligence agencies that indicated that Russia had interfered in the election campaign that gave him victory. in 2016. Veteran American journalist Bob Woodward reveals in a book that during his first term, in the early stages of the coronavirus pandemic and when there were shortages in the United States, the Republican sent the Russian a covid test. The Kremlin has confirmed this.
“A Trump victory would strengthen and embolden the leaders who defend a strong hand and cry out against multilateralism,” warns a senior community source. A reciprocal support that supports ideas that were previously considered too radical.
The Republican has also expressed his support for the Israeli Prime Minister, the conservative Benjamin Netanyahu, in his offensive on Gaza in response to the Hamas attacks of October 7, which have left the Strip demolished, and against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Netanyahu has not done badly with Democrat Joe Biden, who has supported him and has not placed restrictions on his offensives, but he remembers Trump’s strong support during his first term, when he moved the United States Embassy to Jerusalem, he acknowledged. Israeli sovereignty over the Golan Heights and withdrew from the Iranian nuclear deal.
Trump has a president in Argentina who awaits him with open arms. Javier Milei has stated that he hopes for his victory. He even said it face to face last February, during the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC), held in Washington. The Argentine intercepted Trump shouting “president!” and a photo was taken. “I hope to see you again, next time as president,” he insisted, and ended the meeting with his war cry: “Long live freedom, damn it!” Milei never saw Trump again, but every time he gets the chance he says that he is the greatest world leader, second only to himself. Beyond the Argentine’s tendency to exaggerate, his favoritism has political roots.
In Buenos Aires they are convinced that with Trump in the White House it will be easier to negotiate a new agreement with the International Monetary Fund. Argentina owes 44 billion dollars (about 40.4 billion euros) to the organization and has a payment plan that expires at the end of the year. Milei is now asking for new deadlines and about $15 billion in fresh funds to strengthen the central bank’s reserves, which are currently in the red. The far-right remembers that it was Trump who gave the go-ahead in 2018 for President Mauricio Macri to receive the largest financial rescue ever delivered to a partner from the Fund. And he intends that now, if he wins the presidency, he repeats the gesture, even if it is out of ideological affinity.
In Brazil there are also expectations among Jair Bolsonaro’s followers. The former president is prohibited for eight years from being a candidate for any elected position for having questioned the transparency of the electoral system during his administration. Bolsonaro participated in the 2023 CPAC and warned Trump that his mission “was not over.” A victory for Trump would give international oxygen to the Brazilian ultras in their battle to return to the front line of politics.
In Chile, the sector that is most attentive to the elections in the United States is that of José Antonio Kast, former candidate of the Republican Party defeated by Gabriel Boric in the 2021 elections. Kast has not expressed his support for Trump’s candidacy so far, but he feels very comfortable in the waters of the extreme right. Last August, he mixed without making too much noise in the Mexican version of the CPAC and rubbed shoulders with the region’s top ultra representatives.
