Andrii Vadaturskii, 51, says that one of the worst things about the invasion of Ukraine is waking up and seeing what might have happened while you were sleeping. The uncertainty. On one such night, July 31, 2022, a Russian missile pierced the bedroom of his parents, Oleksii and Raisa, ending their lives. The bombing devastated the southern city of Mikolaiv, facing the Black Sea. Oleksii Vadaturskii, the head of Nubilon, an agricultural giant, was one of the richest men in the country. The death of this 74-year-old businessman was condemned by the regional government and by President Volodymyr Zelensky in kyiv. There were suspicions that Russia, with whom he was not on good terms, had deliberately targeted him. Andrii, his son, took over the reins of the family empire at a time when the Russian fleet was blocking trade to the Bosphorus.
“You have to make decisions, but it’s like you’re always jumping to the last carriage of a train,” he says from the shadow of one of his silos near the town of Voznesensk. With the ports of Odessa and Mykolaiv blocked, he decided to look for an alternative route, even if it was more expensive. And he was right.
If anyone wants to damage Ukraine’s economy, they can do better than to hit the countryside. Before the war, about 70% of the land was arable; now, because of the invasion, it is farmed on an area a third smaller than before. Moscow has bombed thousands of hectares, killed farmers, launched missiles at elevators and terminals in southern ports, and blocked trade and mined the waters of the Black Sea. Because of the war, yes, but with clear effects on the economy. Russia and Ukraine are competitors in the grain market, so damage to one puts the other in a better position.
“They wanted to control the corridor,” explains Andrii Vadaturskii, with his hard features and tanned complexion, sweltering in the intense heat, “and thus be more competitive.” In the summer of 2022, Moscow and kyiv separately signed an agreement with Turkey, mediated by the UN, to guarantee the transit of grain to the Bosphorus Strait, vital for many importers in the South. A year later, Moscow abandoned the pact and reinstated the blockade.
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It is harvest time for some crops. The dust raised by the harvesting machines, in an exquisite grid of yellow and green earth, is lost on the banks of the Bog River, on the way to the port of Mikolaiv. Vadaturskii is boarding one of the jewels of his new direction, a mine-clearing ship in which he has invested four million euros. He has shared many figures with businessmen and journalists: they lost 460 million in 2022 alone, along with 25,500 hectares that fell into Russian hands; the cost of moving each ton (barley, corn and wheat) then went from 11 to about 140 euros. He says that 24 of his employees died and 654 went to combat. But he also reveals that things are improving. In the last 12 months, they have exported 3.2 million tons and reduced the logistics cost to 57-67 euros. This is largely thanks to the route via the Danube River and the Romanian port of Constanta – with considerable collaboration from Bucharest – in which Nibulon has invested more than 20 million.
Ukraine’s exports, with agricultural products at the forefront – the military occupation of the most industrial belt has torpedoed the metallurgy – currently follow three routes: by truck, to the western border of the country to cross into European Union territory, generally via Poland; again by land, to Ukrainian ports on the Danube River (Reni, Izmail), where they set sail for the Black Sea; and, thirdly, along this same sea, from the unblocked terminals of Odessa, tracing a route parallel to the pre-war one, longer and more expensive, but safer, through the territorial waters of two NATO countries, Romania and Bulgaria. The ports of Mikolaiv, located further east, remain closed for security reasons.
These last two routes have cost time and money, but they have allowed exports to recover. The data speak for themselves: according to recent information from Deputy Minister of Economy Taras Kachka, in the season that ended in June, Ukraine managed to export cereals and oilseeds worth 70 million euros, that is, more than five million per month, with corn leading in volume, but a record growth in sunflower oil – the country was the leader in exports of this product. Before the Russian aggression, agricultural sales were above six million; after the breakdown of the grain agreement, in the summer of 2023, they barely exceeded two million. The resilience, creativity, commitment and investment of companies have been essential, but the turning point for the reconquest of trade through the Black Sea is, without a doubt, in the expulsion of the Russian fleet.
TransInvestService (TIS) is another giant in Ukraine, this time as a stevedore and operator of the terminals from which cargo ships depart and arrive in the ports of Odessa. Its location on the westernmost strip of the Black Sea coast makes it the chosen starting point for maintaining the trade route to the Bosphorus. Philipp Grushko, 40, a businessman and investor, is a member of the board of directors of TIS. “The security situation has improved,” says Grushko in a video call. “During the grain deal checks, which could last up to 40 days per cargo ship,” he continues, “Russia tried to delay the departure of Ukrainian ships for a long time.” It was ruinous for the sector and for the country. Even if Moscow had maintained the pact, at that rate the drain on exports would have continued.
The Ukrainian Navy, despite not having a formidable fleet, stepped on the accelerator after the summer of 2023. Through a combined strategy of conventional attacks (missiles), sabotage and the use of sea drones, Kiev has managed to practically completely expel the Russian fleet from the Black Sea. “It now dominates the waters,” says Grushko, “Russia has understood that the price of attacking ships is very high.” As Vadaturskii also did during the talk, this businessman insists on the importance of Ukraine investing more in its naval force to ensure the safety of transport in the Black Sea.
On July 15, the Ukrainian Navy spokesman reported that the last patrol ship of the Russian fleet, based in Sevastopol, had left the area. According to Kiev, its offensive has succeeded in destroying or damaging a third of Moscow’s troops in the Black Sea. The British Ministry of Defence has reduced this to a fifth of the warships deployed in these waters. From the other side of the trench, however, Russian artillery continues to aim and hit the southern region, from Mikolaiv to Odessa and the Danube ports. While Vadaturskii shows the elevators where he stores the grain, anti-aircraft alerts sound. An instant after the last door of the shelters with the personnel inside is closed, a loud bang shakes within sight, in Voznesensk. A Russian missile has fallen in a civilian area of the town and killed one person.
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