Sharp cold has already placed the temperature below zero in Ukraine, which is preparing for its third winter of war. In its strategy of trying to freeze the country and plunge it into darkness, Russia has intensified attacks on the energy sector with 11 offensives so far this year. In the most recent one, last Thursday, it used 91 missiles and 97 drone bombs and left a million consumers without electricity. kyiv reinforces the defense of critical infrastructure with the help of Western allies ahead of the most difficult months.
In a message to Western allies, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted last week on the urgent need for air defense systems, crucial to protect key infrastructure in electricity distribution. In parallel, the country defends the energy network with passive systems, with concrete and defensive frameworks, while working to repair the damage and implement contingency plans with equipment, systems and personnel. The needs for spare equipment, turbines, cables and other components are permanent.
The allies committed this Wednesday to prioritize aid to Ukraine in this area. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte assured that there is “a clear agreement that helping Ukraine, particularly with its infrastructure, has to be a priority.” “I am sure that in the coming days and weeks the allies will ensure that they send Ukraine all the help they can,” he stressed.
The daily routine of Ukrainians includes checking the power outage times in the morning to organize themselves with basic activities such as putting on a washing machine, cooking or taking an elevator. Gas camping has become common in many houses in the country that do not have a gas installation. The sidewalks are full of generators that provide light to shops and restaurants and those who can invest in electric accumulators that do not cost less than 1,000 euros. Solar panels are also beginning to sprout on some roofs, driven by legislative changes to simplify the purchase and import of renewable energy equipment.
The media publishes service information, such as which rechargeable lamps to buy or how outages affect appliances. Ukrainians are very conscious of every light they turn on. They save every watt possible to endure another winter in the dark.
Zelensky declared in mid-November that they are better prepared to face this winter than the previous two, all during the war. “Psychologically, the country is more prepared than the first year of war, but last year we had more energy reserves than this year,” explained Olena Pavlenko, president of the think tank Dixi Group, before starting a conference on energy security this Wednesday in kyiv. Whether the winter ends up being more or less harsh will depend on the temperatures, the attacks on infrastructure and the ability to stop them with anti-aircraft defenses, and the speed with which the damage can be repaired. In the worst possible scenario, Dixi Group estimates that the outages could last between 15 and 16 hours a day, compared to the average four to six hours currently being recorded.
The United Nations estimates that Ukraine has lost 60% of its electricity generation capacity. Russian attacks have destroyed or damaged all of the country’s thermal and hydroelectric plants. Adding all energy sources, the country manages to generate about 13 gigawatts (GW), but when temperatures plummet, consumption can skyrocket to around 18-19. This week, consumption is already rising while the network has not yet recovered from the latest attack and outages are spreading across all regions.
Increase in imports
Since last Sunday, the EU has increased energy export capacity to Ukraine (from 1.7 GW to 2.1 GW) through connections with the infrastructure of neighboring countries. But synchronization with the European infrastructure is designed above all to solve emergencies. Excess export can destabilize the rest of the network. “We have to be careful,” explained Frank Reyer, vice president of the Operation Committee of the European Network of Electricity Transmission Network Managers, at the conference. The energy that Ukraine can import from the EU can cover the needs of 2.1 million consumers. “Unfortunately, that’s all we can do,” Reyer said. For her part, the president of Dixi Group stressed that the high cost limits this possibility, available only to large companies such as the Gulliver shopping center in kyiv.
The Kremlin’s attacks, most recently directed at high-voltage electrical substations, raise fears of a winter of darkness and cold. As of January 1, in addition, “everything indicates that Gazprom will close the flow of Russian gas through Ukraine,” according to Deputy Energy Minister Roman Andarak. Putin justified last week’s bombing as retaliation for the Ukrainian military’s use of long-range missiles from the United States and the United Kingdom on Russian soil. Russia had been accumulating more advanced missiles for this type of bombing for months. On November 17, Russia also launched a massive attack with 120 missiles and 90 drones, hitting a precarious energy system that received another attack of similar magnitude in August. The Ukrainian military is focused on attacking the Russian oil and gas industry.
This Tuesday, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry reported that the United States had committed to helping the Ukrainian energy sector with 825 million dollars (about 782 million euros). This amount, which is added to similar aid committed in the summer, will serve to restore critical infrastructure while working to reform the energy sector and promote a transition to a greener economy. This Wednesday, Denmark announced a six million euro aid package, according to local media.
