The surprise Ukrainian offensive in the Russian province of Kursk continues with a large number of troops, armoured vehicles and weapons involved. Meanwhile, 350 kilometres further south, in the Ukrainian region of Donbas, alarm bells have been raised by the rapid Russian advance on the city of Pokrovsk, a key base for the defence of Kiev troops in the province of Donetsk. The authorities of the municipality asked the population on Thursday to begin evacuating in view of the proximity of the invader.
The Ukrainian military resources invested in the operation to seize Russian territory are exceptional, with companies from at least 12 mechanized and assault brigades, dozens of NATO armored vehicles and thousands of troops. The Ukrainian armed forces continue to advance, although more slowly than at the start of the offensive on August 6, now moving into enemy territory about two kilometers per day, according to Oleksandr Sirski, the head of the army.
The Ukrainian military leadership claims to have control of more than 80 localities, mostly small villages, in a territory of more than 1,000 square kilometers. Sirski announced on Thursday that a military administration has been created for the occupied Russian territories, “to maintain law and order, and ensure the needs of the population.” General Eduard Moskaliev will be in charge of this command.
Intention to stay
The efforts aimed at Kursk and the fact that defensive lines are already being erected indicate that kyiv has no intention of abandoning Russian soil in the near future. Most Ukrainian and foreign analysts agree that the operation could serve as a means of future negotiations with Moscow to end the conflict. Another objective is to be a factor of political destabilisation and discontent against Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Another goal of the Kursk operation is to force Russia to transfer reinforcements from the eastern front in Donetsk and the southern front in Zaporizhia province. Soldiers from the 80th Assault Brigade interviewed by Morning Express who are fighting in the Kursk region confirm that this has not happened and that the enemy contingent they are facing is still made up of inexperienced recruits. Vitali Vitsak, spokesman for the 77th Separate Airborne Brigade, explained on Thursday to Ukrainian television Channel 24 that the transfer of Russian units from the southern and eastern fronts has been much smaller than expected.
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Time will tell whether the move to invade the Kursk region of Russia, led by President Volodymyr Zelensky, has been the right one to turn the tide of the war in his favour. The move could also backfire if Russia continues its rapid advance on Donetsk. Russian regiments have advanced 13 kilometres in the last two months towards Pokrovsk. They are now just 10 kilometres from the town. The advance has also been significant at another point in the province, on the town of Toretsk. The invading forces are already in the vicinity of Toretsk, but Pokrovsk is the main objective.
Despite the optimism that the military success in Kursk has provoked in recent days among the public and in the Ukrainian media, since Friday there have been reports of a pessimistic situation in Pokrovsk. Since the beginning of the offensive in Kursk, the Ukrainian military has said in a statement PoliticalIvan Sekach, spokesman for the 110th Mechanized Brigade of Ukraine, said: “The situation has worsened on our side of the front.” [Pokrovsk];we are receiving less ammunition than before and the Russians are pushing.”
Prisoner Exchange
Ukraine’s campaign in Kursk has left Kiev with hundreds of Russian prisoners of war in its custody. The Center for Defense Strategies, a Ukrainian military analysis institute, has put the number of captured soldiers at more than 4,000. Zelensky’s office has already made it a priority to start talks with Russia on the exchange of Ukrainian prisoners. Kirilo Budanov, head of the Defense Ministry’s intelligence services, said Thursday that the priority was to return home civilians held in Russian prisons and fighters held in Russian prison since 2014, from the Donbas war.
Since the beginning of the Russian invasion in February 2022, there have been 54 prisoner exchanges. The Ukrainian side reports that more than 3,400 fellow citizens have been released. The exchange of prisoners is the only operation in which representatives of both countries have at any time had direct communication, as Ukrainian government sources explained to this newspaper in June, especially to coordinate the date and physical location of the exchange. Negotiations on the people who benefit from the exchange are usually carried out with the mediation of third countries, with a special role this year of the United Arab Emirates.
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