The liberal and pro-European opposition is making its way to power in Poland after years of ultra-nationalist rule. The official results of last Sunday’s elections confirmed this Tuesday the parliamentary majority of the liberal opposition bloc. Also, that the ultra-conservative party of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, at the head of the Government, has come first, for the third consecutive time, but without managing to gain the necessary support to govern. The Polish president, Andzrej Duda, must announce the appointment of a prime minister who will be in charge of forming an Executive, presumably from the ranks of Law and Justice (PiS) as it has been the most voted list.
Donald Tusk, leader of the center-right Civic Platform (PO) party, the country’s main liberal party, has urged Duda to make “strong and quick decisions.” In a message recorded and broadcast through the social network
With the complete scrutiny, which already includes the distribution of seats, the process for the constitution of the two chambers of the new Parliament begins, which will last several weeks. Then, the prime minister nominated by the president must submit a cabinet proposal to the House. If it is rejected, the parliamentary majority can propose an alternative. At the end of the road, which is not in sight until December, according to experts, would be the inauguration if nothing goes wrong for a liberal government that redirects the country’s relations with the European Union and other partners, and repairs the fissures in the Polish democracy and rule of law.
PiS has achieved 35.38% of votes and 194 seats, below the absolute majority of 231 deputies in the Sejm, the lower house of the Polish Parliament. The sum of the votes of the Civic Coalition, led by the center-right formation Civic Platform (30.70%, 157 seats), Third Way (14.40%, 65 deputies) and Izquierda (8.61%, 26 deputies) exceeds that threshold, with 248 deputies. The far-right Confederation party, which pre-election polls predicted a decisive third place, came in last place, with 7.16% of the vote and 18 seats.
Kaczynski’s party does not accept that its results are insufficient to form a Government. This Tuesday, after knowing the official result, the number two of the PiS parliamentary group, Marek Suski, insisted that his party is the winner. “We will try to form a Government in the first round,” he assured. “If this fails, the opposition will have its five minutes.” Confederation has insisted that it will not enter into a coalition with PiS. The agrarian formation Polish People’s Party (PSL), a member of the Third Way along with the Christian-conservatives of Polska 2050, has also flatly rejected the idea suggested in the media by PiS deputies of starting talks.
..
Subscribe
Female mobilization
The ultra-conservative party has fallen more than seven points in these elections compared to the results of 2019, when it achieved a parliamentary majority of 235 seats, which it lost during the legislature. Wojciech Przybylski, political analyst at Visegrad Insight, pointed out this Monday in a meeting on-line some elements that have influenced the fall of PiS, such as the mobilization of women’s votes, at an unprecedented level. In the previous elections, more than 43% elected this party, but the protests that occurred throughout the country, including conservative rural areas, due to the almost total ban on abortion, have been able to boost a female protest vote. Security management and the rule of law are other issues, according to Przybylski, that have boosted the vote in the elections with the highest participation in the history of Polish democracy, with more than 74%.
A limited mission from the OSCE (Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe) and the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe observed Sunday’s elections in the face of some complaints that they were not going to be fair. In an appearance in Warsaw this Monday, the organization criticized “the extensive use of intolerant, xenophobic and misogynistic rhetoric” during the campaign. For the head of the observation mission, Pere Joan Pons, the control of the ultra-conservative Executive over the judicial system and the public media “tilted the playing field, which meant that the opposition did not have full equal opportunities.”
These two areas, the independence of judges and public media, are going to be two of the priorities that the opposition sets if it manages to form a Government. PiS has filled the judicial career with magistrates, known as neojudges, appointed by a deeply politicized judiciary. As Przybylski explained, the opposition’s intention is to create a process of verifying the suitability of these appointments controlled by the courts, so that the judicial system “heals itself.” In the case of television, radio and public companies such as Orlen, which bought a chain of regional newspapers, a cleanup of positions related to PiS is expected.
These elections were considered the most important in the EU this year, because Poland ran the risk of being on the brink of the so-called PolExit, as the opposition called the possibility of the country’s departure from the Union. The Poles have largely decided that their place is in Europe, and they have gone en masse to the polls to defend those values. Visegrad Insight believes there will be a rush to see changes in the relationship with Brussels, which the Liberals hope to mend to, among other issues, unlock €35.4 billion in recovery funds. The analysts of said platform warn, however, that the Government “will be consumed by internal issues” such as the economic situation, with inflation still high, at 8.2%, and the budget, which is not at all clear after the massive purchase of weapons.
Follow all the international information onFacebook andxor inour weekly newsletter.
.
.
_