The Prime Minister of Poland, Donald Tusk, became an example for Europe last October by managing to remove the ultra-conservative Law and Justice (PiS, in its Polish acronym) from the Government, despite the fact that they were the most voted list. . Civic Coalition (KO), the center-right formation that leads the liberal coalition government, managed this Sunday to reinforce the retaining wall against the ultras by a narrow margin: Tusk’s party has overtaken PiS in first place in the European elections in percentage of the vote, although it is tied in seats, according to the latest projections published at dawn. If the scrutiny confirms these data, it would be the first time in 10 years that KO is ahead.
After knowing the exit polls at nine at night – which gave a more resounding victory than the latest projections, also in seats -, a euphoric Tusk stressed that Poland is becoming the “new leader of the EU”, according to statements collected by local media. “The governing parties of Germany and France have no reason to be satisfied,” he added, referring to the growth of ultra parties in those two key countries for the EU. “We have shown that we are a light of hope for Europe.” The leader celebrated: “These precious months after October 15 have not been in vain.”
The prime minister tried to mobilize his electorate until the last moment in elections presented as historic. The bad news for the liberals is that the extreme right of the Confederation is positioned as the third force, with six MEPs of the 53 that the country distributes, and together with PiS, the ultras continue to be the option of more than 47.5% of the electorate Polish.
The country is not fast with electoral counts, but Ipsos estimates for the main television networks are usually accurate. According to these projections, which refine the exit polls, KO has obtained 37.4% of votes, ahead of PiS’s 35.7%, but with a very narrow margin of less than two points. Tusk’s party gains 20 MEPs, nine more than in 2019, and PiS, with the same number, loses seven of the 27 it had. The liberal bloc of KO and the government partners continue to add a majority, with 51.3% of the votes: the coalition of conservatives and Christian Democrats Third Way adds 7.3% and four seats, and the progressives of the New Left, 6, 6% and three.
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The campaign in Poland was marked by polarization, with speeches that appealed to emotions, mainly fear of the Russian threat. Tusk’s team warned of the possibility that the Kremlin would go further in its attack against Ukraine and the war would reach Poland, or that it would intensify its acts of sabotage and destabilization. He also warned that through ultras formations with authoritarian and traditionalist ideology such as Law and Justice, Moscow could undermine Western democracies, starting with European institutions. A corruption scandal with public funds related to members of the former PiS Executive also encouraged the liberal vote.
Poles show electoral fatigue. Last October they broke all records, with a participation of almost 75%, in elections that were presented as a dilemma between democracy and Europe or more Poland and Christian values. In March and April, when regional and local elections were held, abstention skyrocketed. This Sunday, 39.7% of the census voted. In the 2019 European elections, 45.68% participated, because PiS presented the elections of that year as fundamental to defend the Polish position in Brussels and it worked. European women usually have a modest participation, more similar to the 23.8% in 2014.
With this Sunday’s results, if the scrutiny confirms the polls and projections, PiS loses strength in Brussels, where it is an old acquaintance: populist, eurosceptic, and supporter of nation states. In the legislature that closes with these elections, he has been the main delegation of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group, which also includes Vox and Brothers of Italy, led by Giorgia Meloni. The party’s anti-Russia stance distanced it from other leaders of the European extreme right, such as Viktor Orbán, a traditional ally, after the invasion of Ukraine. After losing the Polish Government, he has shown himself to be much more flexible and willing to integrate Orbán into the group or to seek broader alliances with other ultra parties.
After governing for eight years and bringing the country to the brink of a legal break with Brussels in its turn towards an illiberal system, the ultra-conservative party failed to gain the majority necessary to govern last October, but remained the most voted list. In the regional elections in March, he came first again and demonstrated that his electoral base was still robust. The result was read as a warning to the Liberal government coalition, which is moving more slowly than promised in the reforms promised to restore democratic health.
Donald Tusk, leader of KO, was president of the European Council between 2014 and 2019, and of the European People’s Party (EPP) between 2019 and 2022. He has a recognized pro-European career, but although he defends European cooperation and was welcomed back to Brussels with open arms, is reluctant to reform the treaties or the migration pact. Today’s victory, if confirmed and despite the narrow margin, gives him wings to strengthen Poland’s position in the Union as an example, once again, of a dam against the extreme right. “We confirm that democracy, honesty and selflessness are important,” he said to his followers.
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