WorldTunisia: Saied's choices shrink in the face of growing internal pressures (Analysis)

Tunisia: Saied’s choices shrink in the face of growing internal pressures (Analysis)

AA / Tunis / Alaa Hammoudi

-The General Tunisian Labor Union (UGTT) called on Wednesday the Head of State to “clarify the political vision and to establish a timetable and a process of genuine restoration as well as to draw up a Roadmap which will put end to the Exception Stage and that will determine the outlook.

-Jelassi: The lack of a clear political position on social events will be one of the causes of the escalation

-Allala: Recent events and social protests could be a small snowball that is starting to take shape

-Boulbeba: The pressures are set to increase and social and economic problems will place Saied in the position of the main responsible

The internal pressures exerted against the Tunisian president, Kais Saied, accumulate, against the background, in particular, of protests in the city of Agareb (south) for several days, in parallel to external pressures which are intended for him since his exceptional measures taken on July 25, with a view to putting the country back into the orbit of the democratic process.

A double crisis, political and economic, is worsening in Tunisia, for more than a hundred days since the announcement by Kais Saied of his exceptional measures, mainly involving the suspension of the work of Parliament, the lifting of the immunity enjoyed by deputies and the abrogation of the Body for the control of the constitutionality of laws.

Saied also seized executive power by sacking the Head of Government, Hicham Méchichi, and deciding to legislate by decree.

The General Tunisian Labor Union (UGTT, the main trade union organization in the country) called on Wednesday in a press release to “clarify the political vision and to establish a timetable and a process of real restoration as well as to put a quickly end to the mystery that hangs over it ”.

The UGTT also called for the development of a Roadmap which would end the emergency phase and determine the prospects, which will be likely to bring together the conditions for stability and to continue the building democracy ”.

This appeal was launched at the same time when the city of Agareb (province of Sfax, south) has been the scene of protests since Monday, in particular in the perimeter of the controlled landfill of el-Gonna. These protests were punctuated by clashes with the police to contest the reopening of the landfill.

The demonstrations escalated on Tuesday, and protesters torched the National Guard post in Agareb, amid the death of a young protester who allegedly inhaled tear gas launched by the police, the day before, which was denied by the Interior Ministry. A general strike was observed in the city on Wednesday at the call of the UGTT.

Analysts believe, in interviews with AA separately, that President Saied’s “lack of vision” in dealing with crises will be able to widen the circle of protests against his decisions, while others observers categorically rule out that the president plans to give in to pressure and engage in dialogue.

• It is not possible to predict the positions of Saied

Sociologist Sabrine Jelassi underlined that “it is certain that the protests during the next period will be an opportunity and will encourage the opposition parties or those who have been excluded from the political landscape to reorganize and mobilize support against it. ‘current political orientation’.

In an interview with AA, the scholar said that “the lack of a clear political position on social events, such as the protests in the town of Agareb will be a cause of escalation and disruption. ‘widening of the circle of protest’.

“The absence of a clear political vision and of interaction with social events will be a reason which will push the sidelined political parties and the UGTT to move towards a social barter in order to put an end to the silence in which it is wall up the power that ignores them, ”she explained.

“If the protests worsen and internal pressure against Saied increases, it will not be possible to foresee its directions. Thus, the ambiguity remains intimately linked to the personality of the current Head of State who, since his access to power, shows attitudes and behavior different and contrary to those of classic political figures ”.

• Pressures are growing and Saied’s choices are shrinking

For his part, political analyst Mourad Allela, underlined that “the developments known by the political crisis in Tunisia are essentially motivated by the slowness of President Kais Saied who is slow to submit his political project as well as by the accumulation of pressure to against him, which increased the apprehensions and reservations of his adversaries and opponents with regard to his positions and orientations ”.

He added, in a statement made to AA, that “the position of the UGTT as to the need to establish a timetable for emergency measures and to adopt a clearly outlined Roadmap should constitute an impetus for Saied to be more inclined to dialogue and to interact with social and political developments taking place in the country ”.

The political analyst pointed out that “the latest events and social protests in the city of Agareb could be this little snowball that is starting to take shape and that could be the prelude to other parties entering a crisis that is beginning to take shape. generally will be used for political purposes hostile to the personal authority of the president ”.

Referring to the most probable scenarios and those closest to reality in view of the increase in internal pressures, our interlocutor noted that “the choices remain limited given the numerous internal and external demands”.

“So,” he said, “Saied must catch on the fly the cross-messages being sent out, essentially about restoring the democratic process and working to put an end to the social and economic crises that are raging.”
And Allela continued: “Even the parties that supported the president have announced their disagreement, like the Echaab Movement which has publicly requested during the past period to clarify the vision in order to be able to break the deadlock facing the crisis. country “.

• The president will not give in to pressure:

The political analyst, Boulbeba Salem considered that “the position of the UGTT which demands to establish a timetable to put an end to the exceptional measures in force for more than three months and to draw up a roadmap with outlines clear as well as the violent security treatment reserved for the events of the city of Agareb will only increase social tensions ”.

He added, in an interview with AA, that “the position of the UGTT is not new although it has previously welcomed the measures of July 25”.

However, he continued, “the new declarations made by the officials of the Central Syndicate contain hidden calculations, insofar as the UGTT calls for the holding of a National Dialogue while excluding certain parties (without them. designate explicitly, thus seeking a tailor-made dialogue ”.

“The parties accepted by the UGTT are microparties close to its orientations which have no weight or effective political impact,” he said.

Salem noted that “Saied’s exclusion from national organizations and parties and his refusal to initiate a National Dialogue are the factors that have motivated the position of the UGTT which does not wish to be on the sidelines of the political equation. “.

He added: “I believe that both endogenous and exogenous pressures are set to increase and social and economic problems will truly place Saied in the position of primarily responsible for the high cost of living and the worsening of the crisis. , political, social and economic for having seized, alone, the power and the decision ”.

And the analyst concludes: “However, this will not be a reason for Saied to change direction or opinions when he does not consider resorting to dialogue or giving in to pressures despite their magnitude. “.

. . (HAS), ..