Global warming looms as a potentially growing threat to security in the Mediterranean increasing the danger of tsunamis in the region in the coming decades. This worrying prospect emerges from two recent studies published in the journal “Scientific Reports“and in the volume”Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard and Risk Analysis” published by Elsevier, the result of collaboration between researchers at the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology (INGV).
The results of the studies, developed within the European projects Savemedcoasts2 and TSUMAPS-NEAM coordinated by INGV, indicate that Projected sea level rise, estimated at approximately 4 mm per year and accelerating, could combine with coastal geological movements to significantly increase tsunami risk. This situation could impact over 150 million people living in the coastal areas of the Mediterranean.
The increase in sea levels induced by climate warming will amplify the effects of tsunami waves on the coasts in the coming years. In particular on the low ones, today often occupied by important infrastructures and population centers. In the photo a stretch of coast in eastern Sicily. Photo credits: Marco Anzidei.
According to projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), global average sea levels could rise by up to about 1.1 meters by the end of this century.
“By the end of this century, global average sea levels could rise by as much as about 1.1 meters compared to today“, explains Marco Anzidei, researcher at INGVco-author of the study and coordinator of the Savemedcoasts2 project. “This potentially represents an increasing risk for coastal populations in the Mediterranean that we cannot underestimate“.
“In the study we considered how geological movements can add to sea rise, worsening the risk in areas where the ground tends to subside“, he comments Anita Grezio, INGV researcher and first author of the study. “Our research provides new tools to assess tsunami danger, integrating future scenarios that take into account both climate change and geological phenomena“, concludes Grezio.
