The Republican candidate, Donald Trump, has managed to finish this first debate without clearly answering any of the journalists’ direct and specific questions, nor explaining a single proposal of what he would do if he wins the next elections. His strategy of constantly attacking Joe Biden’s ability and results, labeling them as a disaster compared to his mandate, as well as a staging with a clearly more dynamic body energy have shown that, at least, Trump had a better strategy and perhaps better preparation than his opponent. Trump has come to make a long and repetitive electoral spot. Surely effective.
Trump has also won the non-verbal debate. And Joe Biden does not seem to have won the verbal debate, nor has he managed to highlight the supposed dangers of Trump’s return. Biden’s moments of lapses, if not of lack of clarity – even confusion – have contributed to fueling the great initial question of this debate: Can Biden resist Trump’s onslaught and aggressiveness? He said he came to stop him. But tonight he has not shown it, despite the fact that he has gone from less to more. Paradoxically, it has taken Trump a long time, and Biden seemed to resist the passage of time better.
The moment in the debate when the age of both men and their possible limitations for carrying out “the hardest job in the world” were discussed was comical and almost ridiculous. The debate about their cognitive abilities ended in a challenge to play golf, to show who has the best handicap. Both men offered an outdated, elitist image of idle retirees who challenged each other to see who could hit their clubs harder and better. In a CBS and YouGov poll, only 28% of the electorate considered Biden “strong,” compared to 66% who think the same of Trump.
Joe Biden came into the debate having stepped up the harshness of his message against Trump: his campaign invested $50 million in a spot describing his rival as a “crazy man” who will do anything for power, and Kamala Harris and other Democratic spokespeople have emphasized the president’s ability to “fight.”
For the first time in several months, Biden has begun to lead voting intentions in some polls. His advantage, however, is small, it is not yet reflected in the close states that will define the election and the most recognized polling averages, such as Real Clear Politics, still have him behind, although only by one point. The situation, however, is an improvement compared to the first five months of the year and reflects that Trump’s conviction in the only trial that will take place before the elections may have affected him among the most moderate voters.
Despite his weakening in the polls and a possible setback among moderate voters, Trump’s verdict in late May has further mobilized his support base. His campaign has used this momentum to increase fundraising, an area in which it had been lagging behind the Democratic Party all year.
Today’s debate will have confirmed the prejudices and apriorisms of each candidate’s hard-core voters. But it will have left the undecided perplexed and immersed in many doubts about the meaning of their vote. Trump’s aggressiveness – although today he has seemed less aggressive and has shown himself to be less dangerous – may be his weakness. And Biden’s weakness may be his strength by showing traits of resistance that generate a bond of affection, even if it is condescending and without enthusiasm. Undecided voters sometimes lean towards the losers. Especially when the winners seem arrogant and intend to humiliate or ridicule their opponents.
Biden has lost his characteristic sense of ironic humor. We have only seen a few glimpses of it, such as when he called Trump a “crybaby.” But those flashes also illuminated the many foggy moments that have accompanied him in the debate. Trump, on the other hand, has gone to nail all the arguments that he knows do harm and sow doubts among the still reluctant Democrats and the undecided.
The final balance is very poor: both have shown their limitations. The choice is defined. Voters must choose the least bad of the two. And this lack of mobilizing energy can seriously harm the Democrats. Voting resigned is voting defeated. That is why, despite everything, Trump manages to win, because Biden cannot forcefully open the hope that there is a fight, yet.
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