On January 31, five years will be completed since the United Kingdom left the EU. Since then, the economic and academic debate on the consequences of Brexit has moved between the bad and the lousy; Among those who argue that the British economy is a car that advances with a punctured wheel, more and more flat, and those who continue to believe that it crashed irremediably against a wall. What seems evident is that, despite the obstinacy of politicians – both conservatives as Labor – to bury in a drawer a toxic issue that divided the country and the parties, each new geopolitical shake, such as the “Hurricane Trump”, will resurrect A discussion condemned to be perpetual.
“The danger to the United Kingdom resides today that Donald Trump’s actions force us to choose between the United States or the EU. For example, you can offer us an agreement on tariffs that are detrimental to our commercial relations with Brussels. Or perhaps the price is the purchase of more American defense material, something that would undermine our ability to cooperate with the EU, ”says Anand Menon, a professor of European politics and foreign issues at the King´s College in London.
Together with 40 other academics, Menon has prepared the most exhaustive report made to date on the prolegomena, development and consequences of the most painful political divorce of the 21st century: The Brexit Files (Brexit Achivos) is an attempt driven by the organization UK in a Europe to keep alive the issue that has most influenced the future of the United Kingdom, and that will continue to influence a world in constant seizure.
The new Labor Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, promised a “restart” of relations with the EU, after years of sour controversies promoted by the conservatives. Beyond good words, however, Downing Street has been unable to specify its objectives regarding Brussels. His fear to give Alas to Reform UK, the populist party led by Nigel Farage that today represents a threat to both Labor and Conservatives, has led Starmer to reject any approach, either a greater freedom of movement for young people or an alignment or alignment narrower in customs matters.
The arrival of Trump, and his indissimulated hostility towards the EU, has made Starmer’s maneuvers and his team even more uncertain and doubtful. “The immediate reaction of the British government has been to use Brexit as a potential shield. If Trump insists on charging against the EU, Starmer can remind him that the United Kingdom is no longer part of that club, and ask him not to direct the burden against the British ally, ”John Curtice, the most political sociologist and political analyst explains with irony Respected in the United Kingdom, which has also participated in the report. “Interestingly, this brings the Labor Government to the position that the previous conservative executive had, which was more interested in strengthening ties with Washington than with Brussels,” he says.
The future is Europe
Most experts, however, warn against “Trump mirage.” Starmer can be tempted to choose the best of both worlds – ”Cherry pickingIt is called in English: choosing the best cherries ”-but the lesson of history has made it clear that the destiny of the United Kingdom is in Europe.
“One of the lessons of the prolonged relationship that the United Kingdom has cultivated with the United States is that, in fact, our destiny leads us to remain aligned with the US, both in commercial terms and security and defense. But in the short term, it is understandable that the Starmer government tries to avoid what could be unnecessary collateral damage, ”justifies Curtice.
It is now, experts agree when giving advice to Downing Street, of advancing in a possible approach to Brussels without awakening the Brexit snake. Or in making an economic and subtle diplomacy with Washington to avoid friendly fire. Five years after divorce with the EU, two things have become clear. Exports of manufactured products have suffered the consequences of greater customs friction, but the United Kingdom remains a first -order power in the services sector. And the United States, its main market.
“The United Kingdom is mainly held with the export of services to the United States and products manufactured to the EU,” says Sara Hall, a geography professor at the University of Cambridge and vice -director of UK in a Europe. “That is why the Starmer government has already begun to articulate a strategy to convince Washington to take this particularity into account, and keep us out of a future commercial war with the rise in tariffs,” Hall highlights.
Not all experts believe that the British government can play a lot of time for a lot of band. “All decisions that can cause significant changes – in security matter, especially – have remained. They are decisions that suppose a greater integration of the defense industry, or a joint policy of acquisitions. All that has financial and national security implications, ”says Simon Usherwood, a professor of international policy and studies at Open University. “I’m afraid that what we have ahead will be more muddy and confusion, before the articulation of a specific strategy,” he says with resigned pessimism.
The great paradox with which the report of the experts concludes is that this aspiration with which Brexit had wings, that the United Kingdom regained control of its destiny –Take back controlit was the slogan- it is an impossible dream: “Five years after Brexit, the EU continues to profile our daily life in a very important way, although we are no longer part of the club,” he says.
