Trump’s lies and exaggerations: more migrants, more crime and the world on the brink of World War III

The speeches heard in the first three days of the Republican national convention, which concluded this Thursday in Milwaukee (Wisconsin), have been punctuated by statements that are not always accurate, often lacking context. There have also been flagrant cases of falsehoods, normalized in the new narrative of the MAGA movement —acronym for Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again”—, such as the unfounded claim that the Democratic Administration will grant the right to vote to foreigners in the country, or the linking of immigration with crime without evidence. Donald Trump’s acceptance speech as a candidate for reelection has not been able to escape this trend and has left a string of hoaxes, exaggerated or misleading statements and data taken out of context. These are the main ones, grouped thematically.

Foreign policy

“Our planet is on the brink of World War III.” A statement that lacks evidence, despite the ongoing wars (especially Ukraine and Israel-Hamas). “I will end every single international crisis that the current Administration has created, including the horrible war with Russia and Ukraine, which would never have happened if I were president, and the war caused by the attack on Israel, which would never have happened if I were president.” This statement is impossible to prove, since it refers to a hypothetical condition — that Trump would have been president at that time — and events that are already past. What the Republican candidate did do during his term, such as weakening NATO or resisting the sale of Javelin missiles to Ukraine in 2019, does not point in that direction.

“We defeated 100% of ISIS in Syria, something that was going to take five years, and I did it in two months.” That’s an exaggeration. The U.S.-led coalition’s campaign against the Islamic State (ISIS) began in 2014. ISIS lost about a third of its territory from January 2015 to January 2017. Trump maintained and built on a strategy that began under Obama, and ISIS lost its last territories in March 2019 — two years after Trump took office, not two months.

“We left $85 billion worth of military equipment” in Afghanistan when the U.S. withdrew from the country in August 2021. The figure is false. The equipment was valued at about $7.1 billion, part of the roughly $18.6 billion in supplies provided to Afghan forces between 2005 and 2021. The “$85 billion” is a rounded figure for the total amount of money Congress appropriated during the war to support Afghan security forces.

2020 Elections

“We had that horrible outcome that we will never let happen again. The election result. We will not let that happen again. They used Covid to cheat.” False. Trump continues to falsely claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him. The former president has since cited baseless examples of fraud and spread conspiracy theories.

Immigration

“Under my presidency, we had the most secure border and the best economy in the history of the world.” That’s an exaggeration. Apprehensions of unauthorized border crossers in fiscal year 2017, which includes several months of the Obama administration, fell to the lowest point since the 1970s, but rose in subsequent years. In 2019, apprehensions topped 800,000, the highest in a decade. And in 2020, they surpassed those of 2011, 2012, and 2015. As for the economy, when Trump left the White House in January 2021, there was a 6.4% unemployment rate. But even before then, average annual growth was lower under his watch than under Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan.

“You know who is taking the jobs? The jobs that are being created? Illegal aliens.” False. Official employment estimates do not support Trump’s claim.

“We built most of the wall [con México]”. False. During the 2016 campaign, Trump promised to build at least a 1,000-mile wall along the southern border and make Mexico pay for it. That didn’t happen. His administration built 450 miles (737 kilometers) of border barriers, most of which upgraded or replaced existing structures. Officials put up new primary barriers along just 75 miles (120 kilometers).

“The largest invasion in history is taking place right here. They are coming from every corner of the earth, not just South America, but Africa, Asia, the Middle East. They are coming at levels we have never seen before, it is a de facto invasion and this Administration is doing nothing to stop them.” Wrong. Illegal border crossings fell 29% in June following the Biden Administration’s restrictions on asylum, along with other measures to curb illegal immigration.

“The Biden Administration demolished Title 42.” Context missing. The Biden Administration kept in place the Trump-era policy known as Title 42, which allowed border agents to quickly turn back migrants and cut off access to asylum protections for more than a year. The current administration did not take action to eliminate Title 42 until spring 2022. The move was later blocked by a federal judge, who forced the policy to remain in place.

Immigration and crime

“In Venezuela, crime is down 72%” because, Trump has said, that country is sending criminals to the United States. Trump greatly exaggerates the decline in crime in Venezuela during the Biden era. Although some criminals may have joined the migration flow, there is no evidence that the Venezuelan government has deliberately emptied prisons or intentionally sent former prisoners to the United States.

“Our crime rate is going up, while crime statistics around the world are going down.” False. Official FBI data shows that violent crime decreased significantly in the United States in 2023 and in the first quarter of 2024, although there were increases in some communities. Violent incidents are now less than in 2020, Trump’s last year in office.

Inflation

“An inflation crisis is crushing our people – nothing like it has ever been seen before.” False. It peaked at 9.1% in the summer of 2022, but even that is down from the peak of nearly 15% in the early 1980s. Economists reckon inflation was lower in 2022 than it was four decades earlier.

“Under this administration, groceries are up 57% and gas is up 60 and 70%.” False. Grocery prices have risen a lot since Biden took office in early 2021, but not 57%. The CPI for food has risen about 21%. Gas prices have risen about 35%.

“We had no inflation during my term.” False. Inflation was low, but not nonexistent. The CPI rose about 8% during Trump’s four years in office. In January 2021, his last partial month in office, it rose 1.4% from the previous year. Under his watch, the inflation rate as measured by the CPI hovered around 2%.

Tax Reform

“We made the biggest tax cuts ever.” False. The $1.5 trillion tax cut, enacted in December 2017, ranks below at least a half-dozen tax cuts by other administrations. Reagan’s 1981 tax cut was the largest in percentage terms and in its reduction of federal revenues. Obama’s 2012 tax cut was the largest in inflation-adjusted dollars: $321 billion (295 billion euros) a year.

Energy

“We will drill and drill, and in doing so we will cause a massive drop in oil prices.” This claim is misleading. More production does not always mean that gasoline prices will plummet. The US is producing much more crude under Biden than under Trump, but prices are still higher than they were four years ago because they depend on the global market. For example, one of the main reasons for the price increase in 2022 was the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted the flow of crude oil around the world. The US currently produces more oil than any other country on the planet, about half a million barrels per day more than the previous annual record in 2019.

“I will end the electric vehicle mandate on Day 1, thereby saving the American auto industry from complete obliteration, which is happening right now, and saving American customers thousands upon thousands of dollars.” [de dólares] per car”. Misleading statement. First of all, there is no mandate on electric vehicles. The Biden administration has imposed rules requiring automakers to meet new emissions limits, but it is up to manufacturers how to comply. There is also no evidence that policies aimed at encouraging electric vehicles are driving the auto industry toward “demise.”

“Just three and a half years ago, we were energy independent. Soon we will be energy dominant and supply the rest of the world.” Under Trump, the US began for the first time to export more oil than it imported, but this was not due to his policies but to the boom in the fracking (hydraulic fracturing), which began during the George W. Bush administration and skyrocketed under President Barack Obama. And it continues to happen. In fact, under Biden, the United States has become the world’s largest oil producer and is producing more natural gas than ever before.

Social Security

“Democrats are going to destroy Social Security and Medicare.” False. Biden has pledged not to make any cuts to social safety net programs. Trump, by contrast, signaled earlier this year that he was willing to cut them, though he later backtracked. Government reports released earlier this year projected that Social Security and disability insurance programs combined would not have enough money to pay all their obligations in 2035. Medicare will be unable to pay all of its hospital bills starting in 2036.

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