Halfway between bobbin lace and a civilized battle for power, this Monday European leaders meet to elect the senior officials who will govern the EU in the coming years. This afternoon’s conclave will be the beginning of a process that will last several months until the European Parliament ratifies, but it already has quite clear favorites, at least, in the two most notable: the presidency of the European Commission and the of the European Council. It would be a surprise if the German Ursula von der Leyen did not repeat her position at the head of the European Executive between 2024 and 2029 and something similar if the Portuguese Antonio Costa does not complete the tandem, community sources point out. But it is worth noting that in these conclaves the strange thing is that there are no surprises.
Both are the most relevant positions that are distributed after the European elections on Sunday, June 9. However, there are two other senior officials who complete the poker that will lead the Union for the next five years: the high representative for EU Foreign and Security Policy and the presidency of the European Parliament. The Estonian Prime Minister, Kaja Kallas, is strongly considered for the position that could be assimilated to the position of EU Foreign Minister, and the Maltese MEP Roberta Metsola to repeat at the head of the European Chamber.
The profiles of the favorites – a German Christian Democrat, a Portuguese socialist, a Baltic liberal and a Maltese conservative – demonstrate why it is a piece of cake to choose who will occupy the top jobs, the English expression used in Brussels to talk about high-ranking officials. The distribution usually respects an unwritten rule that seeks multiple balances: the classic political families (conservatives, social democrats and liberals) must be represented; It is convenient that the origin of those chosen takes into account the four cardinal points; It is not convenient for large countries to share power, leaving out medium and small countries; and it is much better that there is gender balance.
The pieces would fit with the poker mentioned. For this reason and, above all, because of the rise of the extreme right, it seems that this time there will soon be white smoke. However, this Monday’s meeting is “informal”, on paper, and it would be logical that no official decisions would be made. That would happen within 10 days at the next European Council, this one “formal”. During that time, the leaders will try to gain the maximum share of power for representatives of their countries within the next European Commission (the Competition Commissioner does not have the same weight as the Transport or Youth Commission) or influence the political program that will be deployed. the next Commission.
All of these factors will be on the table tonight to choose the next top jobs:
European Commission: all the numbers for Von der Leyen
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The European Council, that is, the leaders of the Member States meeting in plenary session, nominates the person who will preside over the European Commission by a qualified majority: 55% of the countries that represent at least 65% of the population. But that does not guarantee the position, the election must subsequently be ratified in the European Parliament by an absolute majority (361 MEPs out of 720). This vote will be held in the plenary session from July 16 to 19.
The Treaty says that the Council must take into account the result of the European elections. And the victory of the European People’s Party (EPP) has been incontestable: 190 MEPs and the first group quite far from the second, the social democrats (136). The current president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, led the EPP poster and would therefore comply with the recommendation of the treaties. It also seems that the German Government will launch her as its candidate, despite the fact that she is not part of any of the parties of the German Executive. To this we must add the 14 Member States with governments headed by their political family.
With these members, plus their endorsement of five years of management in Brussels, the negotiators of the major pro-European parties (the Spanish president Pedro Sánchez, and the German chancellor, Olaf Scholz, on the part of the social democrats; the Greek prime ministers, Kyriakos Mitsotakis , and Polish, Donald Tusk, for the conservatives; and the Estonian Kaja Kallas and her Belgian counterpart, Alexander de Croo, for the liberals) would work with Von der Leyen as a more than priority option. Although as the now head of the Executive of the Union knows well from her own experience, everything can change: no one in 2019 thought that the then German Minister of Defense would lead the Commission at this point in the process that begins this Monday.
European Council: António Costa, with permission of the Portuguese judges
It has been many months, even more than a year, since the name of former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa has been considered in Brussels as the next president of the European Council. The Social Democrats covet a position that since it was created in 2009 has been held by two liberals (Herman van Rompuy and Charles Michel) and one conservative (Donald Tusk). Costa has been part of the European Council for nine years, until a case of corruption among people on his close team led him to resign. This chapter caused him to lose everything, but as the case in the courts has deflated, his candidacy has taken shape again.
The fact that he is no longer part of the European Council plays against Costa. He has a good relationship with almost all of its members, but he is not one of them. The previous three were active heads of government when they were elected. That could give options to what appears to be his main rival, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, also a socialist. She will indeed be in the room in which Michel’s successor will have to be elected by qualified majority.
Foreign Policy: in search of Borrell’s successor
As in the two previous positions, the High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy of the European Union is elected by the European Council by a qualified majority. This position also requires ratification by Parliament, since the high representative is, in turn, ex-officio vice president of the European Commission and this must be ratified by the European Parliament.
For this position, the liberal Prime Minister of Estonia, Kaja Kallas, is very popular. The politician from the small Baltic country neighboring Russia has been campaigning for a high position in Brussels for a long time and every time she appears in the capital of the Union she does not miss the opportunity to meet with journalists from the community bubble to raise your media profile. But this does not guarantee the position. His marked anti-Russian profile and lack of experience with other areas of the globe (Latin America or Africa) raise doubts among his colleagues, who are also considering his co-religionist and Belgian Prime Minister, Alexander de Croo.
European Parliament: Metsola with many options to repeat
They are two different institutions, which, furthermore, view each other with suspicion. But the presidency of the European Parliament may also be on the table of the European Council this Monday. It happened five years ago. The leaders of the States wanted to launch the candidacy of the Bulgarian social democrat Sergei Stanishev, but this irritated the parliamentarians who chose to promote the Italian David Sassoli, from the same political family, as their president. Now the favorite to preside over this body is the woman who succeeded Sassoli, the Maltese conservative Roberta Metsola.
The custom is that socialists and popular ones divide the high magistracy during the five-year period: two and a half years for some and the other half for others. In the past the tandem in the last legislature was Sassoli-Metsola. In this, everything indicates that the Maltese will be the one chosen by the absolute majority of Parliament in its first plenary session, in July, with the popular ones inaugurating the traditional turn.
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