The world reaches the highest peak of conflicts since World War II

Ukraine, Gaza, Sudan, Ethiopia, Afghanistan, Syria, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Colombia… And so on up to 56 active conflicts in the world, the largest number since World War II. In addition, they increasingly have a greater international component, with 92 countries involved in wars outside their borders. These are data from the latest Global Peace Index prepared annually by the think tank Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), in which it analyzes everything from military investment and the cost of violence to military laws or deaths in combat in 163 States and territories. “Obtaining the information is a challenge, but it allows us to compare dynamics. And what we see is a deterioration of peace in the last decade, especially in the last five years,” analyzes Michael Collins, executive director of the IEP.

“At a socioeconomic level, the world improves, people live longer and better; However, we see an increase in gaps between countries, both economically and in terms of peace,” the expert details by video call last Friday. In such a way that 97 countries worsened their levels of peace in 2023, more than in any other year since the creation of this index in 2008. This means that, mainly, there has been a deterioration in their militarization indicators “because there is more export and imports of weapons, more military investment, when in previous years it had been reducing,” explains Collins.

The risk of low-intensity hostilities erupting into open conflict has also grown. In addition, Collins warns, “this year is high risk because half of humanity votes and the world is increasingly polarized.” “We see the risk of conflicts spreading. We see sparks that can light a fire,” she notes. “There are many conflicts without resolution, but without awakening,” says Collins. At any moment, the report warns, these can break out into major wars. This has happened, the authors cite, with cases such as Sudan or Gaza, which in last year’s edition of the study were on the list of unstable territories, with low-intensity hostilities, and have escalated to the category of wars.

In addition to the little attention these tensions receive, Collins recalls that the world is also “distracted” by conflicts such as those in Sudan or Ethiopia, in which “many people die, but they are not reported,” he denounces. “It is imperative that governments and companies around the world intensify their efforts to resolve the many minor conflicts before they become major crises,” asks Steve Killelea, founder and CEO of the IEP.

Violence has a price, both personal and economic. In the chapter on human losses, the increase in conflicts translated into 162,000 deaths in 2023, the second highest figure in the last 30 years, the authors of the study note. “And it is possible that a record will be reached in 2024,” Collins advances based on the data they have collected in the first four months of the year, in which 47,000 deaths have been recorded, the majority in Gaza. Additionally, 95 million people are refugees or internally displaced due to violent clashes; 16 countries each host more than half a million refugees, which represents a human and economic cost for both their communities and the host communities.

Regarding the economic impact, the IEP highlights that the global cost of violence (from wars, clashes with gangs, for example, or low-intensity hostilities) amounted to 17.5 trillion euros in 2023, 13.5% of world GDP. “Exposure to conflict poses a significant risk to the supply chain of governments and businesses,” the authors write. “When lives are lost in the context of violence or conflict, productivity is lost,” adds Collins. Likewise, the more peaceful a country is, the fewer resources it has to allocate to maintaining peace and the more it can invest in other areas such as education or health, adds the expert.

“The most peaceful countries dedicate 3% of GDP to containing violence, while the most violent countries dedicate 30%. If they reduced that violence, they would unlock that budget. War does not lead to economic growth at all,” the director of the IEP states bluntly. “There will always be a need to invest in security, but dedicating more and more to military or security technologies means that there is more violence to contain, a lack of peace.” Thus, greater spending on these items subtracts points in the classification of the most peaceful countries, led by Iceland, Ireland and Austria, in that order.

Europe is the most peaceful region, according to the study. And even with the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, Eurasia is the one that increases its levels of peace the most thanks to the improvement of the situation in the rest of the countries in the area. “All other regions are experiencing a deterioration in their levels of peace, especially sub-Saharan Africa, with 36 of 46 countries involved in conflicts outside their borders, and jihadist terrorism on the rise in the Sahel. Only Mauricio is not involved in any internal or external conflict.” North America is, however, the one that worsens the most on the index due to the increase in violent crime and fear of violence.

In the world, countries like Mauritius “are an exception,” laments Collins. However, there are those that improve their indicators. This is the case of Afghanistan, which, despite registering the worst levels of peace (last position in the index), has improved its score compared to the previous study. Spain has risen seven positions to number 23 in the classification, preceded precisely by Mauritius. Despite complaints of violation of human rights and having the highest incarceration rate in the world, the report considers that El Salvador improves 21 places (to 107th in the ranking) by clearly reducing homicides.

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