A little more than two years ago, in January 2022, the United States, France, the United Kingdom, Russia and China agreed that “a nuclear war cannot be won and should never be fought,” as they expressed in a joint statement. A month later, the Russian army invaded Ukraine and blew up any kind of consensus on the use of this type of weapons. Since then, the danger of a leader resorting to the nuclear button in one of the active conflicts – to which the war in Gaza was added last October – has made the nuclear powers modernize their arsenal in a global context in which each The inventory is increasingly presumed, but in which secrecy has become the norm.
This is the panorama drawn by the annual report of the Stockholm International Institute for Peace Studies (Sipri), published this Monday, which analyzes the trends of the nine countries with atomic arsenals. “We have had a taboo on nuclear weapons for 75 years [tras los bombardeos de Hiroshima y Nagasaki]but now they are so normalized in the debate that, in a crisis, leaders may feel forced to resort to them,” warns Matt Korda, a researcher at the Swedish institute.
The total number of nuclear warheads ready for use in the world continues to rise, partly due to China’s push. While the United States and Russia kept their nuclear arsenals relatively stable (with 3,708 and 4,380 warheads, respectively) during 2023, Beijing boosted its stockpile in one year from 410 to 500 warheads, above the increase of other powers such as India or South Korea. North.
This growth is explained above all by the probability that China considers that its arsenal no longer has sufficient weight compared to other powers, Korda speculates. “A few decades ago, Beijing could be satisfied with only having 200 nuclear warheads, but now it sees that the United States and Russia are building advanced missile defenses and have advanced defense capabilities that could eliminate their weapons,” the expert maintains.
The Chinese case is a good example to show the high degree of tension between the atomic powers in recent months. According to the report, nuclear weapons have not played “such a prominent role in international relations” since the Cold War. This approach has been reflected in the statements of numerous leaders in recent months, who use their nuclear power as a method of deterrence.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened on several occasions with weapons capable of “destroying civilization” and has stated that Russia is “prepared for a nuclear war.” Just a week ago, Moscow carried out nuclear exercises together with Belarus. Along the same lines, one of the ministers of Israel’s War Cabinet, in the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu, assured in November that launching an atomic bomb on the Gaza Strip was “a possibility.” Leaders of countries such as North Korea and Pakistan have also made intimidating statements.
However, Korda highlights, the role of the West cannot be left aside: “NATO has also given firm signals that it has nuclear power. She is very careful and does not make statements because she does not want to sound as belligerent as Russia. But if you look at their military exercises, many are near the Russian border.”
More secrecy
Despite these shows of force, Sipri argues that each year there is less transparency regarding atomic weapons. In February 2023, Russia unilaterally suspended the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), created in 2010 to exchange data with the United States on its nuclear forces twice a year. Washington kept its end of the deal by revealing the figures in the first half of 2023, but has since stopped doing so. London, one of its greatest allies, did the same. “For three years we have not known much about the size of the British arsenal, despite the fact that it was previously one of the most transparent countries in this regard,” denounces the expert.
“Ironically, some of the most authoritarian states are some of the least opaque,” adds the expert. One of the clearest examples is North Korea, which, although it is one of the countries with the greatest secrecy in almost any aspect, is one of those that boasts the most about its atomic capacity. “There are missile parades there, photos are shown and everything is a message of their strength,” he says.
Sipri reports that Kim Jong-un’s regime has assembled at least 50 nuclear warheads, about 20 more than a year ago (it is the country that is growing the most after China). Furthermore, since September, the Constitution enshrines North Korea’s status as a “nuclear weapons state.” Their arsenal, according to a new law, must be “ready for action” and can be used preventively, in contradiction to the widespread doctrine of no first usethat is, containment, in which countries agree to respond but not attack.
Trump’s return
The G-7 summit closed last week with complaints to North Korea and Iran for their support of Russia in the war with Ukraine and with an elephant in the room: the possible return of Donald Trump to the White House in the elections of November. But what would this mean in nuclear matters? “[Con Trump] There is always an element of unpredictability. However, we can see that during his term (2017-2021) he sent messages to his allies so that they would not leave his security exclusively in the hands of the United States,” notes Korda. As in February, when the Republican candidate questioned the functional basis of NATO, declaring that Washington will not defend those Alliance partners that do not comply with the spending objective of 2% of GDP.
The expert also highlights the case of South Korea, a country that has the technical means to forge its own nuclear arsenal and that, in addition, has the support of a large part of the population in this matter in the face of the threat from the North. “The message Trump sends is that other countries develop nuclear weapons for their own security. That would give more leaders access [al botón nuclear] and all of them are subject to their own whims and irrationality,” he adds.
Looking to the future, there is also concern about how the war tension develops in the Middle East. Iran continues to enrich uranium and is very close to the line of nuclear development, as the report points out. According to Korda, whether or not Tehran crosses that limit will depend on a political calculation, rather than a strategic one: “Nuclear weapons can be very valuable for the security of a country and that need can have internal resonance.” Israel, against calls for containment, launched a limited attack on the Iranian province of Isfahan in April in response to the unprecedented barrage of missiles and drones that Tehran had previously directed against Israeli territory. That province is home to Iran’s most important nuclear research complex.
The report highlights two advances in nuclear security. In June last year, the visit of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to China paved the way for dialogue on arms control. The same month, Washington and Tehran reached an informal agreement to de-escalate tensions between the two. However, Sipri regrets, attacks by Iranian-backed militias on US forces in Syria and Iraq put an end to diplomatic efforts.
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