President Yoon Suk-yeol’s decision to lift martial law in South Korea, six hours after having decreed it, has been welcomed with a sigh of relief in the United States, its greatest global ally, which saw a crisis bursting through its fingers. sudden when Washington is in the midst of a transition of power. The US Government will closely monitor the consequences of these events on the stability of an essential partner in its strategy to counter China, Russia and North Korea.
For the United States, instability in one of its best allies is a nightmare. Since the armistice that ended the Korean War in 1953, it has maintained a defense treaty with Seoul that obliges it to come to its partner’s military aid in the event of an attack, and it has nearly 28,500 soldiers deployed in the Asian country to protect it. of possible hostile acts from North Korea. And throughout President Joe Biden’s mandate he has further strengthened relations with this country, to make it one of the cornerstones of American influence in the Asia-Pacific.
The number two at the State Department, Kurt Campbell, had acknowledged that the United States viewed the development of events with “serious concern.” Biden, on an official visit to Angola, received frequent updates on what was happening.
The decision by the unpopular Yoon – absolutely unexpected – to impose martial law and lift it raises many questions about the political future of the South Korean president, and culminates a drastic deterioration in relations between the ruling party in South Korea, the right-wing Party of Popular Power (PPP), and the opposition of the center-left Democratic Party (PD). The latter won overwhelmingly in the legislative elections last April and enjoys a large majority in Parliament. The trigger for Yoon’s order had been the presentation in the National Assembly of impeachment motions against the state auditor and the attorney general, as well as the approval in the parliamentary budget committee of a reduced budget bill.
The South Korean president – whose management was questioned, according to polls, by 70% of citizens before what happened this Tuesday – had justified the measure by accusing the opposition of sympathizing with the North Korean regime and that it was necessary to protect the country of the “communist forces” of the neighboring country. He did not elaborate on his claims.
The proclamation of martial law was unprecedented in the democratic era of South Korea, a country where citizens are accustomed to taking to the streets to defend their rights: street protests caused the fall of the last PPP president before Yoon , Park Geun-hye, in 2017. Although the national Constitution grants the president powers to declare martial law, it is a measure that had only been applied until now during the times of the dictatorship (1953-1987), used by autocratic leaders—on 12 occasions since 1948—to seize or retain power.
Tension with Pyongyang
Political instability in Seoul explodes when tension with North Korea increases, due to the support of the Kim Jong-un regime for the Russian war machine in Ukraine, to which it has contributed by sending equipment and ammunition and, to the that nearly 11,000 soldiers have joined, sent to the Russian area of Kursk, according to Washington and kyiv.
During Joe Biden’s mandate, the United States has strengthened collaboration with South Korea and established a tripartite cooperative partnership with Seoul and Tokyo, its best partners in the Asia-Pacific, which have remained distant from each other for historical reasons.
To strengthen the partnership, the three governments agreed to create a formal secretariat, during a meeting of their respective leaders on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Lima. In his statements this Tuesday at the State Department, Undersecretary Campbell stressed: “Our alliance with South Korea is unbreakable.”
The return to the White House of President-elect Donald Trump opens a period of uncertainty about how relations with these allies will develop and what the future of the strategic partnership will be. During his first term (2017-2021), the Republican criticized the presence of American soldiers on the peninsula and demanded that Seoul pay the United States more for its defense.
Meanwhile, Yoon has tried to reach a rapprochement with Trump. According to South Korean media, he had even resumed playing golf, the favorite sport of the American president-elect.
Trump also had a unique relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. During his first year in office, tensions between the two countries soared over the North Korean nuclear program, while their respective leaders exchanged insults: “rocket man,” “old cunt.”
The change in the Government in Seoul, where Moon Jae-in, of the Democratic Party, had replaced President Park, was one of the factors in the detente between the two. With a program that advocated a thaw toward Pyongyang, Moon acted as a mediator between the two enemies. In 2018, Trump and Kim began a rapprochement that generated three meetings – in Singapore, Hanoi and the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas. Although concrete results were almost non-existent, the two leaders chose to turn the page, something to which the outbreak of the covid pandemic also contributed.
So far, Trump has not given much indication of what his policy will be towards North Korea, which has since continued to strengthen its weapons program. With Yoon in power, one thing is clear: in the event of friction, Seoul would not act as a mediator this time.
