IndiaThe Taliban have arrived, but will they survive?

The Taliban have arrived, but will they survive?

Ranjit Kumar

After the Taliban capture of Kabul on 15 August, a provisional government headed by the influential radical Haqqani group was announced on 7 September, but three weeks later, smooth civil administration has not been restored in Afghanistan. . There is no money in the ATM. People stand in the market to sell the valuables of the houses so that they can arrange for the evening meal. On the one hand, there is a shortage of everyday things in the markets, and on the other hand, Taliban henchmen are pushing the women protesting for their rights on the streets at gunpoint. Normal work could not be restored in the offices. The Ministry of Women’s Welfare has been renamed as Ministry of Shil and Sin. The US has banned the use of funds from Afghan banks abroad, loans from international banks have been banned and Afghanistan’s international trade has come to a standstill.

Terrified bureaucracy

The Taliban have captured the insurgent Panjshir Valley, considered impregnable, but insurgent leaders Ahmed Masood and Amrullah Saleh have not surrendered. The attacks of the Islamic State militia on the Taliban have suddenly intensified. To rule Afghanistan peacefully, the Taliban will not only have to create harmony among their factions but also must control the ‘lions of Panjshir’ and the Islamic State. Despite the announcement of the 33-member cabinet, there is no indication that the ministers of the interim government have begun to discharge official duties responsibly. Terrorized bureaucrats are absent from offices. Mullah Baradar, a contender for the post of prime minister but made deputy prime minister, has fled to Kandahar after being beaten up by the Haqqanis in Kabul. The English-speaking Taliban in Doha who were negotiating with the international community have not been able to return to Kabul to shoulder their responsibility. Stanikzai, the Taliban’s leading negotiator in Doha, who was supposed to be made foreign minister, has been declared deputy foreign minister, but his speech has stopped.

Taliban Article

The Taliban captured Kabul on the strength of Pakistani forces, but its leaders still do not understand that the regime can be run not on the strength of terror but on the support of its people and recognition from the international community. . The manner in which the Taliban was advised to abstain from terror after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement revealing the character of Taliban (to which Pakistan and China also did not object) at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit meeting in Dushanbe. Prime Minister Modi said that the Taliban should be recognized only by a collective decision, it can shatter the dreams of the Taliban’s godfather Pakistan.

The Taliban most need diplomatic recognition from the US and its allies, only then can it get international financial and other trade help. This will be possible only if the Taliban promise that while guaranteeing the human rights of the common people, it will also end all forms of discrimination against women. Without this the Taliban cannot be included in the international fraternity.

The Taliban is not only facing the silent displeasure of the people of its country, but it is also completely cut off from the rest of the world. Due to this, a serious humanitarian crisis has arisen in Afghanistan and the exercise of providing humanitarian aid through international organizations has started there. The problem is that the illiterate Taliban fighters terrorizing the common people on the streets feel that Afghanistan’s governance and society will run only by Sharia law. The Pakistan government is also advocating this, but Imran Khan fears that taking inspiration from the Afghan Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) may adopt an attacking attitude to establish an Islamic emirate there too. China’s concern that the Uighur insurgents of Xinjiang region may take inspiration from the Taliban and increase trouble for it. India fears that the jihadis, who have become unemployed and unemployed under the Taliban rule, may not turn their backs on Kashmir. America and Western countries are concerned that Al Qaeda from Afghan soil may not start raising its money again.

The Taliban has not been able to give the international community any credible assurance that all countries can restore normal relations with its government. China and Pakistan would like to take advantage of this situation, but both of them can only benefit from a flourishing Afghanistan. Pakistan thought that it would use the Taliban to gain more strategic capability than India. China felt that it would be successful in expanding its Belt and Road project to Central Asia and West Asia by making Taliban a stub like Pakistan. But these wishes do not seem to be fulfilled. What will China and Pakistan also exploit from Afghanistan, which was ruined in a month under Taliban rule?

bleak future

In this situation, a big question arises as to how long the Taliban will be able to remain in Kabul. In the Taliban, mutual discord and violent fights will also intensify as not all factions in power have got participation. Various Taliban groups are saying that they will not keep silent if they do not get rewarded for the sacrifices they have made. In such a situation, the future of Afghanistan looks very bleak. With the indirect help of Pakistan and China, the Taliban has sat on the power of Kabul, but how long will it last there?

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are those of the author.

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