In the first days after the arrival of Syrian rebel militias in Damascus to put an end to Bashar al-Assad’s regime, the Syrian capital seemed like a ghost city: closed shops, deserted streets, almost absent traffic. After the initial shock, daily life has quickly regained its pulse. For the Damascenes, however, the concept of normality is particular, far removed not only from that which prevails in Western cities, but even in the Arab Republic itself before a bitter war of more than 13 years crossed their path. The destruction of many infrastructures, the effect of a strict regime of international sanctions – which completely inhibits economic growth – and hyperinflation have turned the daily lives of millions of Syrians into an exercise in survival.
The macroeconomic data, although scarce – the International Monetary Fund, for example, has been in a statistical blackout for a decade and a half: it has not published a single figure since then – attests to this. Per capita income is almost a third of what it was in 2011: just over 1,000 dollars (970 euros), compared to nearly 3,000 then, according to the latest update from the World Bank. A collapse only comparable to that of neighboring Lebanon or Venezuela, also covered under the cloak of an endless crisis.
The UN Human Development Index, a much more complete indicator – in addition to economic variables, it includes other social variables, such as life expectancy, health or education – places Syria in 157th place out of 193 countries. It is the only nation in the world that, far from improving, has gone backwards since 1990. “Food insecurity is rampant, basic infrastructure has been destroyed and most areas of the country only have electricity for a few hours a day,” describes Steven Heydemann, specialist in Middle East political economy from Smith College, based in Massachusetts (USA). The destructive earthquake of February 2023 was the icing on a devilish cake.
Although widespread – nine out of ten Syrians lived below the poverty line in 2022, according to Unicef – this accelerated collapse of the Syrian economy is not uniform. One of the hardest hit areas is that of public workers, with an important weight in the labor market of a country with an anemic private sector after decades of Arab socialism. “It is impossible to live: all civil servants must have two or three jobs. The middle class has disappeared,” explains Mohsena Maithawi, a middle-aged woman who lives in the city of Sueida, an hour’s drive south of Damascus. Her salary as an employee of the Administration was around 20 euros per month.
The salary of the soldiers, mostly recruits who carried out military service of indefinite duration, was even worse: it did not reach nine euros per month. A figure that explains why many of them chose to flee in terror from the rebel advance that unexpectedly overthrew the Assad regime a little over a month ago.
Things are not much better in the private sector. A section head of a bank, a privileged position, does not reach $100 a month. And although it is true that prices are lower than in cities in the region such as Amman (Jordan) or Beirut (Lebanon), the difference is not that big. A kilo of apples, for example, costs 80 euro cents. And the dish par excellence of local fast food, shawarma(meat prepared on a vertical spit), does not cost less than one euro.
Sanctions, oil and remittances
“There are many reasons for the fall of Assad, but the hollowing out of the Syrian economy and state, with a mix of corruption and mismanagement, is undoubtedly one of the main ones,” emphasizes Delaney Simon, senior analyst at International Crisis Group. (ICC). “Their abuses also triggered a cascade of international sanctions that continue to hamper the Syrian economy and the country’s ability to recover from the war.” The Arab republic is, in fact, one of the most sanctioned countries in the world, along with Iran and, more recently, Russia, according to Heydemann. With restrictions – especially Western ones – that amount, in Simon’s words, to “an almost total embargo.”
Crude oil, once the mainstay of the Syrian economy, has been one of the sectors most burdened by that corset with which they have tried to suffocate the decades-long regime of the Assads, father and son. A downward trend accelerated by the start of the war in 2011. Since then, oil production has gone from more than 300,000 barrels per day to 40,000. From notable exporter to clear net importer.
With some seven million refugees abroad – more than a quarter of Syria’s pre-war population – the aid that arrives in the form of remittances is a real lifeline for thousands of families. Getting them there is, however, anything but simple. The aforementioned sanctions – present, to a greater or lesser extent, since 1979 – have disconnected banks from the international financial system, stopping these shipments, preventing money withdrawals and payments with foreign cards and making it impossible to send foreign currency through companies like Western Union, essential in developing countries. “The sanctions have destroyed the economy. They have not been a punishment against the regime, but against all the Syrian people,” complains Emile Abboud, a businessman from Damascus, in conversation with Morning Express.
The imposition of the Caesar sanctions regime, promoted by the United States in 2020 and still in force, added to the collapse of the Lebanese financial system, where the Syrian wealthy classes kept their savings, dealt a very hard blow—one more—to the local economy. Greater, even, than the war itself.
In the last five years, the local currency has depreciated sharply: the dollar has gone from being exchanged for around 500 Syrian pounds to around 15,000. Payment with greenbacks is already allowed in many businesses in Damascus, and the Turkish lira is relatively common in the northern fringes of the country. And rampant inflation forces the average citizen to leave home with bags full of bills to make daily payments.
No light
However, the main complaint of Syrians is the lack of electricity. If before the war there was power 24 hours a day, now the supply is limited to about four hours a day, forcing families who can afford it to buy diesel generators in a country rich in oil, but where getting fuel is not easy either. easy. The shortage has worsened after Iran, a close ally of Assad, stopped providing crude oil.
The solution It has arrived through smuggling. The country’s main roads are lined with vehicles carrying eight-liter, greenish-colored bottles. “In Lebanon, a liter of gasoline costs 75 cents, but in Syria it is sold for 1.20,” explains Ahmed, a driver who makes a living transporting passengers between Beirut and Damascus. Informal importation, which is not prohibited, is already of such proportion that the land border between Lebanon and Syria repeatedly collapses. One more discomfort, although not the most annoying, that a society eager for change faces.
The economy occupies a prominent place on the long list of priorities of the new Syrian Government. But, as Simon of the ICC warns, any attempt will be fruitless if the international community does not soon reverse the sanctions that are crippling its economy. “Unfortunately, it is not acting with the necessary urgency: if they want to give Syria’s transition a chance, they should immediately issue waivers that allow commercial and economic activity, remove curbs on energy and banking, and define a roadmap that offers relief in exchange for specific actions by the new leaders,” he claims. “The Syrian people deserve better.”
Along the same lines, Heydemann, from Smith College, identifies several “reasons for optimism.” “Syrians are incredibly dynamic, the diaspora has significant resources and many countries are interested in playing a role in the reconstruction. And once it is fully restored, the energy industry [el petróleo] It will be a critical source of income,” he confides. “A sanctions-free economy would open an opportunity not seen in decades.”
