The most dangerous thing about the US elections is that, whether Donald Trump wins or loses, we will enter a swampy and unpredictable terrain. Given how close the result is expected, even if he loses, his well-known smear campaign will immediately be launched. And there is an entire army of lawyers willing to challenge the election in key places. The worst scenario is, however, that he once again encourages his troops to carry out something similar to what happened in that nefarious assault on the Capitol.
This is reason enough to be terrified of the second option, which turns out to be the winner. At the helm of the oldest democracy in the world will be a character who does not believe in this form of government. It disregards one of its most basic rules: the acceptance of defeat at the polls. Everything else, his extravagances, however irritating and astonishing, takes second place. Not to mention his thirst for revenge and his commitment to fight with all his might those he considers his “inner enemy,” whether it be officials, opposing protesters on the street, or the media. Another of the fundamental elements of democracy, respect for the political adversary, is systematically and loudly violated.
We know all this very well, the biggest unknown, what half the world is speculating about, is whether he will be able to carry out his program, whether the antibodies that nest in the rule of law will be able to stop his irrepressible desire to give an autocratic turn to the democracy of his country. It is the prevailing conviction among non-fanatical Republicans.
Regarding some of his most controversial economic proposals, among which is a substantial increase in import tariffs or controlling the Federal Reserve, it has been said that the market itself has the means to put it in its place; will want to, but that would not go economically unpunished. That is to say, the economic powers will already know how to tame it, because – with or without Trump – their power will remain almost the same (remember the case of Liz Truss, who fell as British Prime Minister after losing the favor of investors).
The question, as I say, is whether the judicial system, for example, will be able to prevent rights from being violated or whether, with the support of a Congress with a Republican majority, legislation will be passed that a Supreme Court with a large conservative majority will be unable to reverse.
However, what causes the most panic in the event of Trump’s eventual victory is that he already knows the State apparatus and has a perfect design of what steps will be taken to neutralize opposition to his measures. He will stop doing his classic antics and the hesitations that he exhibited in his first phase to now concentrate on his reforms and cutting off the heads that are necessary to achieve the desired objective.
The novelty is that in this new phase the inconsistency of the character will not matter. The MAGA movement (Make America Great Again) and his aides will work behind the scenes to implement their plan to reconvert American society towards the revitalization of conservative values, national isolation and direct confrontation with China without resorting to military means. What makes this even more explosive is that he will face at least half of American society. Polarization in a state of incandescence and without any hint of redemption.
As a journalist from that country said, we will wait for the electoral outcome like someone waiting for the result of a biopsy, with the same anguish. And, I add, waiting to hear those two blessed words: “It is benign.”
