The Venezuelan political conflict has accelerated in the last month as it has not done since 2019. The holding of presidential elections on July 28 triggered a chain reaction with multiple effects: Chavismo faltered and chose to entrench itself in the face of the demands of the opposition, which claims the victory of Edmundo González Urrutia and demands that the Government publish the electoral records. The purpose of the Bolivarian apparatus is to corner its adversaries, led by the disqualified María Corina Machado, and play attrition as it has done on other occasions. However, suspicions of serious irregularities in a day that, according to the authorities, ended with the victory of Nicolás Maduro caused an enormous shake-up in the foundations of Chavismo. Venezuela is once again in the focus of the international community, the president and his hard core are increasingly isolated, while tension increases and fear of repression spreads. In this climate, both the opposition and the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) will mobilize this Wednesday in Caracas in two parallel marches.
Machado and González Urrutia have been holed up in a safe place for weeks to avoid judicial or police reprisals. Their teams have been decimated by arrests and police harassment. The opposition candidate was summoned twice this week by the Prosecutor’s Office, which accuses him of, among other crimes, “conspiracy” for publishing on a website the minutes that dismantle the official version and support his victory. The Chavista leaders are trying to corner opposition supporters through judicial and propaganda means, to take away their visibility, so the call for this Wednesday, announced days ago by Machado, has precisely that objective: to keep the pulse on the street, as five years ago. There are similarities, but also substantial differences with what happened in 2019, when Juan Guaidó proclaimed himself interim president. Firstly, in this case elections have been held and Maduro has not shown the world the evidence of a victory.
The coordinates of the rally are public, despite fears. It will be on Francisco de Miranda Avenue, in the eastern end of Caracas, at the gates of Petare, one of the most populated slums in Latin America. Already during the last march, those who attended expressed their concern about the controls and the militarization of the city. The deployment of the so-called “Bolivarian Fury,” a social device in defense of the revolution with which the PSUV activates its bases, has also contributed in recent days to making the atmosphere more tense.
Chavismo, on the other hand, is seeking to settle the dispute over the election results. For the first time, it has called on its supporters to “celebrate the victory” instead of rejecting an attempted coup d’état. In other words, the slogan is to take for granted the victory that was announced on the night of July 28 by the National Electoral Council and that weeks later was validated by the Supreme Court, the highest judicial body in the country, controlled by the Executive. Nevertheless, Maduro refuses to present the minutes, despite the growing pressure from the international community and the attempts at mediation promoted by leftist presidents such as the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Colombian Gustavo Petro and the Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador.
On Monday, during the virtual summit of the Bolivarian Alliance for the Peoples of Our America (ALBA), Hugo Chávez’s successor even put the focus on a new electoral process, announcing that in 2025 a “mega-election” will be held for the National Assembly, the governorships and the mayoralties of the Caribbean country. However, he took advantage of the announcement to launch a threat to those who question him. That is, those who do not recognize and abide by “the powers of the State” will not be able to participate in these elections. The functioning of these powers is precisely the central core of the conflict, since all the springs of public management and administration are in the hands of Chavismo.
The complaints of the CNE’s principal rector, Juan Carlos Delpino, who reported a “lack of transparency and veracity” in the vote, provoked the sudden reaction of Diosdado Cabello, who asked for his dismissal and replacement. In practice, it is an announced removal. But beyond the dispute over the vote, it remains to be seen how the crisis evolves in the coming months. The paths are still unpredictable and Maduro has just remodeled the Government to try to turn the page and ensure direct control of strategic sectors such as oil and the police forces. However, the long transition planned also opens up new scenarios.
Maduro is expected to officially take office in January 2025. There are more than four months left in which many factors can change. Until then, attempts at mediation driven from abroad will continue. The consequences of the November elections in the United States, in which the current vice president, Kamala Harris, will face former president Donald Trump, are still unclear. But there are no signs that Chavismo is willing to give in. The latest signs show a willingness to redouble pressure on the opposition and, at the same time, Maduro has refused to open up to a possible dialogue. He even accused the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, of “pointing his rifles and cannons” at Caracas. Borrell’s sin was to ask for transparency, a word that on July 28 became taboo in the circles of power of Chavismo.
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