A series of favourable political circumstances has shaped over the last year what may be the last European train before the night. Its profile can be seen in the late evening of the first days of summer, and it is intuited that it is possible, perhaps probable, that there will not be another one like it for some time. Let us hope that it manages to leave the station and set off on a journey to a better place. Let us see.
In France, a significant popular mobilisation and the electoral system have prevented the shock of the far right Le Pen coming to power. The importance of the second factor, the electoral system, cannot be underestimated in this as in other cases. The National Rally won 32% of the votes in the first round. Practically the same result obtained by the British Labour Party, which has thus swept the board, dislodging the populist and Europhobic Tories from power, another piece of good European news, which allows for an improvement in relations between the EU and the United Kingdom. In France, the activation of a solid cordon sanitaire in the second round mechanism meant that this percentage of entries ended up settling into a modest third place.
With the same share of votes, 33%, a year ago, the Spanish PP was unable to form a shameful government alliance with the retrograde far-right Vox. The PSOE took advantage of the situation and, through a crude exchange with the Catalan independence movement, which is prone to trampling on the constitution and other democratic norms when it believes it suits it, it reaffirmed its power by forming a pro-European Executive. Now, relations between the PP and Vox are breaking down.
Between the Spanish elections of a year ago and the recent French and British elections, the Polish ultras were happily relocated to the opposition and, in the European Parliament, the pro-European majority held on in the June elections, albeit with scrapes. Now, as was to be expected, the internal inconsistencies of the European ultras, which are anything but a homogeneous entity, have divided them not into two, as in the last legislature, but into three parliamentary groups, and we will see what else the road holds.
All this is what traces the outline of that possibility, that profile of a European train that can get underway before a night that seems to be closing in on us. It is fragile, it has problems and it can derail. But it exists and we must take advantage of it.
We must not give in to catastrophism. Life, and politics too, teaches us that, more often than not, the apocalypse does not come, and that anguished pessimism is not healthy. However, the state of denial that catastrophic risks exist is not usually wise.
First, because sometimes they materialise. The financial crisis, Brexit, Trump, the pandemic, Bolsonaro, Meloni, the war in Ukraine have all been tremendous shocks. Just ask those who have suffered them most directly. And think also about what a second Trump presidency would mean for Europe and the entire world.
Secondly, because, even if they do not materialise, a certain sense of urgency, of emergency, helps to concentrate minds, sharpen reflexes, understand what is essential and renounce selfishness. This is what the political forces of the left and the centre did in France. Much more of this kind of attitude is needed. You can call it nobility. Or rationality.
For all these reasons, we must take advantage of the favourable circumstances. There are two immediate events that require this kind of attitude. Next week, the plenary session of the European Parliament is scheduled to vote on the candidacy of Ursula von der Leyen to repeat as President of the Commission. It is a secret vote. Hopefully, there will not be too many hidden verses in the forest of the secret vote that end up hurting or killing this candidacy that is the most reasonable for the EU. And, in France, although the first obstacle has been overcome, a government still needs to be formed and be effective, which will require compromises. The left-wing bloc has obtained the highest number of seats, but its distance from the absolute majority (large: it has 182 out of a total of 577) and that from the centre bloc (minimum: 14 seats) obviously call for a negotiation in good faith that recognises an almost equal balance of forces between these two blocs. Otherwise, if there is no effective consensus, Le Pen’s tide will continue to rise in the next election.
Furthermore, although we have now managed to defuse explosive risks, the context of the West leads us to seriously consider that the wave of rejection, weariness and radicalism that the ultras are riding has not been tamed with these electoral results, it has not ended here. A Trump victory is probable. If it happens, it will be a dark night of national populism with a serious shock wave in terms of geopolitics and democratic quality. The global environment, in any case, is not promising. Europe needs more integration to guarantee security, freedom and prosperity to its citizens. It needs more social cohesion to prevent angry losers of modern times from embracing radicalism, and the elites of predatory capitalism should understand that it is not in their interest to continue with their predation either. There is a train at the station that can make that journey. It is worth taking it. We are not sure that there will be another one like it afterwards. And if certain nights are painful in themselves, the remorse of a lost opportunity makes them heartbreaking.