The extreme right grows divided, but Sumar and Podemos are destroyed by breaking

For the first time since Vox’s emergence in Andalusia in December 2018, another state-level force is attacking Santiago Abascal on the extreme right. What neither the historical far-right nor any of the Vox splinters – Túpatria, España Suma, Valores, Juntos por España, Libres or Caminando Juntos, the failed effort of Macarena Olona – has achieved, Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF) achieves. The spreader of hoaxes and conspiracy theories Alvise Pérez obtains more than 800,000 votes, 4.59%, and three seats.

The emergence of SALF occurs while Vox grows. Abascal’s party has seen its improvement limited, but the improvement exists: it goes from 6.21% to 9.62% and gains nearly 300,000 votes compared to 2019, despite the fact that participation was higher then, above the 60%, when now it does not reach 50%. So the space of the Spanish extreme right in the EU, which in the last five years has been limited to a solitary 6.21% of Vox, now covers an entire 14.21%. It is a more divided field, but larger, with a percentage that also exceeds that occupied by Vox in the general elections (12.39%).

In the nine autonomies in which Alvise exceeds its overall result, among them Andalusia, Madrid and the Valencian Community, Vox also does so. Where there is room for a strong far-right, there is room for two. The clearest example is Murcia. There SALF is the fourth force and achieves its best result, 6.58%. Well, Murcia is also where Vox achieves its highest percentage, 15.86%.

Political scientist Eduardo Bayón observes a “widening” of the ultra space, benefited by the “opposition strategy” of the PP, which has normalized the “dehumanization and delegitimization” of the adversary. With its line of “maximum toughness”, he adds, the PP maintains the electoral leadership, but fails to laminate Abascal and, as a collateral effect, generates the “breeding ground” from which Alvise springs. Before the elections, sociologist Iago Moreno, observer of the Alvise phenomenonalready warned of this “expansion” of the extremist terrain, similar to what occurred with the entry of Aliança together with Vox in Catalonia.

With the 9-J data in hand, Daniela S. Valencia, consultant and political analyst, believes that Alvise will not remain an anecdote because his movement is driven by a deep current: the “disenchantment” of a type of voter, especially male and young, who socialize away from the media and are permeable to fake news. Valencia sees it as possible that Alvise, “from the ideological antipodes of Podemos”, will benefit from the same phenomenon as Pablo Iglesias ten years ago, when after breaking into the European Championships he received a barrage of media attention that facilitated his growth. It is the reading that Alvise himself did on Sunday night. “If the vast majority does not know us and we have won three seats, when this great nation knows us we are going to burst the polls,” he shouted. “Now a huge propaganda is coming to Alvise,” says Valencia, for whom SALF is going to be “a very uncomfortable first cousin” for Vox.

Eduardo Bayón agrees: Vox has a problem. The political scientist points out that, despite the “widening” of the space, the division of the vote could reduce its representation in medium and small provinces in general ones. “Below 12%, the electoral system punishes you,” he summarizes. SALF also brings complications for the PP, he adds. Because? Not only because it can take away seats from its ally, but because it undermines the warning discourse against the extreme right and scares away other potential partners, Bayón responds. The PSOE has already begun to put Alvise in the reactionary bloc. This, in turn, gives you greater visibility. A vicious circle.

While the terrain to the right of the PP grows while fragmenting, in the space to the left of the PSOE there is also division, but in a shrinking space with two projects in a spiral of mutual destruction. Sumar and Podemos totaled less than 1.4 million votes on 9-J, without reaching 8%, when in 2019 the purple party and IU exceeded 10% and in the general elections Sumar went beyond 12%. The drop in the number of votes is dizzying: more than 875,000 votes with respect to Podemos and IU in the European elections five years ago, more than 1.6 million with respect to Sumar in the general elections of 2023, although these are figures that exist to be handled with caution because in both cases the participations were greater.

Daniela S. Valencia summarizes the general picture like this: “Sumar and Podemos are falling apart. Podemos, with its best electoral letter [Irene Montero], is behind Alvise. Sumar does not fulfill his objective of achieving the seat for IU.” There is a cruel detail for the team led by Antonio Maíllo: in Andalusia, the community where he boasts the greatest roots, Sumar is behind Alvise.

The departure of Yolanda Díaz is an expression of the depth of Sumar’s crisis, while it constitutes the opportunity for a possible redefinition of the project and its relationship with Podemos. If for the efficiency of the far-right vote in general elections the entry of another ballot would be problematic, in the space to the left of the PSOE, with percentages even similar to those seen on Sunday, the division would be “catastrophic,” says Bayón.

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