In the European Union there is already active talk of peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. To put an end to the imperialist war launched by the Kremlin that has lasted three years and that has dynamited the European security architecture and shaken the global one. Spurred by the imminent inauguration of Donald Trump as the new US president, who has promised to move to end the conflict quickly and is already putting pressure on Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European leaders are seeking to significantly increase their support for kyiv. to begin any diplomatic dialogue from a position of greater strength.
Europe fears that Trump will force an agreement that will not only be bad for Ukraine but will pose serious security problems for the continent and open rifts between its partners, especially in the Eastern and Baltic countries. The big issue on the table is what European allies can offer kyiv. Especially if Washington is withdrawing. At the moment, waiting to see what Trump will do, in Brussels the different scenarios are being analyzed with growing alarm at finding an agreement already cooked up and forced by Washington, according to the European sources consulted, who request anonymity.
Time is short. Germany’s leaders, Olaf Scholz; Italy, Giorgia Meloni, Poland, Andrej Duda, Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, the Netherlands, Dick Schoof, the foreign ministers of France, Jean-Noël Barrot, and the United Kingdom, David Lammy, the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, and that of the Council, António Costa, meet this Wednesday night with Zelensky and with the Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte, the organizer, in a key meeting. They seek to coordinate the response of European allies to the uncertainty on the other side of the Atlantic. It will be the preview of an EU summit, the last of the year, which will be very focused on Ukraine and in which Zelensky will also participate. “It is about ensuring that Ukraine is in the best position, one day, when it decides, to begin peace negotiations,” Rutte concluded. “It is a good opportunity to talk about security guarantees for Ukraine, for today and tomorrow, and to show unity, to have the same position,” the Ukrainian president remarked upon his arrival at the meeting.
The moment is critical. The situation on the Ukrainian front has deteriorated and another very harsh winter is approaching. More with the perspective of Trump’s arrival at the White House on January 20. European allies are not pressuring Zelensky to come to the negotiating table, although the mere fact that negotiations are being discussed is a change in tone. “It has to be kyiv that sets the times and Europe will be by its side all the way,” remarks a veteran diplomat. But Trump is pushing. “[Ucrania] “You must reach an agreement, there are too many dead already,” Trump launched on Monday in a speech at Mar-a-Lago, his Florida club. “It’s nice to say that they want to recover their lands, but the cities are largely destroyed,” added the American president-elect, who assured that the reconstruction of the invaded country will take “110 years.”
European leaders want to convince Trump to maintain the support that the US Administration has provided to kyiv. To do this, they believe that they can play the card that a victory for Russia or an advantageous agreement for Vladimir Putin will also give strength to China and Iran. The Republican populist is a businessman, so they also know that they must show him that Europe has increased financial and military aid (in three years of war the EU has mobilized 124 billion euros). And it will continue to do so – it will also be the EU that will pay most of the reconstruction bill. In fact, several countries are intensely analyzing how they can increase shipments of ammunition, missiles and air defense systems, an issue that leaders will discuss with Zelensky this Wednesday and Thursday.
“This is, essentially, about defending the sovereignty and democracy of Ukraine,” said the German chancellor upon his arrival this Wednesday at a meeting of EU leaders with their counterparts from the Balkans. “Everyone is talking about how we can stop the killing and end this war. So we need clear principles that we can all adhere to. The most important thing is: there should be no decision, no solution above the heads of Ukrainians,” he added. “Whatever happens in the United States, my position is very clear. “I don’t want Russia or Putin to be in charge in Europe,” said the Danish Frederiksen. “Regardless of what the Americans want or don’t want, we Europeans must make the necessary decisions ourselves. Because the necessary decision for me is that Russia must not win this war,” he insisted.
The motto that the EU will support Ukraine “as long as it takes” remains. Now, the leaders also emphasize that “Russia must not impose itself,” according to the draft conclusions of this Thursday’s summit to which Morning Express has had access. The story is being prepared. In the German Chancellery and other centers of power, the idea that is flying over is that Russia has already lost the war because it has not managed to devour Ukraine, nor overthrow its Government, that kyiv has prevailed, that it is a sovereign country. The Kremlin has given no concrete signs that it wants to sit down to negotiate, but it will sell any move—and any agreement—as a victory.
Ukraine, the EU talks about a “just peace”, as Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has stressed. But to achieve it, it is necessary to lay foundations that guarantee the future of the country. Zelensky wants NATO to give him a membership invitation that seems increasingly distant, but would provide kyiv with a security guarantee (the most effective) that Russia—a country that has already proven unreliable in complying its commitments—is not going to invade again soon. Others, who completely rule out that membership, propose that it be the United States that offers these security guarantees.
The idea of freezing the conflict for a certain period of years, with a guarded demarcation line and with a group of countries that offer that umbrella of coverage to Ukraine, has been discussed in capitals and diplomatic circles. The French president, Emmanuel Macron – who meets with Zelensky but will not be at the meeting organized by Rutte or during the summit on Thursday because he is traveling to the island of Mayotte, devastated by a cyclone – has come to put the idea of sending troops to the invaded country, although this time as a peace force. But the idea has not caught on. “To send a peace force there must first be peace,” said the High Representative for Foreign Policy, Kaja Kallas. The nuclear reason is that a deployment without security guarantees from the United States is highly unlikely. Although the preferred formula is to turn Ukraine into a kind of sea urchin, make it extremely difficult to digest so that the Kremlin has no appetite to launch an offensive again.
But beyond the day after, in this future negotiation the European Union – if it does not want to be left behind – must put on the table a plan, an offer for Ukraine, which will in turn be the letter that Zelensky will have to present to its citizens when we begin to talk seriously about the dialogue tables. This is the card of accession to the EU: kyiv has been deprived of part of its territory (perhaps only frozen in Russian hands for a certain number of years) but it already sees a European future, even if it is gradual.
