The European Union has shown that it is absolutely viable without the United Kingdom; but it seems very difficult for it to function with a deteriorated Paris-Berlin axis – the true political and economic driving force of the Union. France and Germany—Emmanuel Macron and Olaf Scholz—, the two greats of the community club, have suffered an immense blow from the extreme right in the European elections. The rise of ultra forces, which have already established themselves in Italy, threaten to paralyze the heart of the EU. The axle had recently suffered distortions, but it was pulling the block. Now, the threat from the right of the right, which has a different vision of the European project, which plunges the future of Macron and Scholz’s government coalition into uncertainty, not only leaves the community engine seriously affected, but could dynamite it. All this occurs at a time when Europe needs radical change to not be left behind.
“It is a hard blow for Europe that the turn to the right has been felt especially within the Franco-German engine,” acknowledges Sudha David-Wilp, director of the Berlin office of the German Marshall Fund think tank. “France and Germany have traditionally been considered the driving force of the EU, and it is certainly significant that Eurosceptics have achieved a strong presence in both countries,” concludes the expert. A shift to the right, combined with the weakness of Berlin and Paris, will make it difficult for the EU to achieve objectives such as spending more on R&D, for EU enlargement and investing in joint defense projects and the green transition. It will also herald a desire for a Fortress Europe when it comes to migration and a weakening of support for Ukraine, especially on reconstruction.
The current European integration would not have been such without the joint drive of Berlin and Paris. Now, the weakness of its two economic and demographic giants will be transferred to the community machinery. Marine Le Pen’s far-right has swept Macron’s party in France. Alternative for Germany (AfD) has positioned itself as the second force in Germany—despite its scandals—in elections in which Scholz obtained its worst historical result.
The Franco-German engine—which in Paris they call couple: couple or marriage—has worked well these years, especially during the pandemic and rescue plans. It began to squeak over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, over its diverse stances on military support and energy, and over its differing views on China; but it has never stopped. Scholz and Macron are not on excellent terms, but they treat each other. And they share a similar vision of Europe that is not that of Le Pen or that of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) ultras.
Beyond parliamentary arithmetic, which guarantees that moderates gain a majority that allows them to resist, 9-J has broken many taboos on the extreme right, despite the history of Europe. The shakeup that the Berlin-Paris axis is now experiencing will also be felt throughout the Union in a scenario of global uncertainty, due to Russia’s war against Ukraine, Israel’s war in Gaza, China’s push and the protectionism of the United States. . And in a Europe that observes with enormous concern the possibility of the return of the populist Donald Trump to the White House.
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The European Parliament is gaining powers and prominence, but the fundamental mechanism of the EU rests between the European Commission and the Council, that is, the Member States meeting together. If these two institutions are aligned, the Union works much more easily, recalls economist Carlos Martínez Mongay, former senior official of the European Commission, who has been in various positions that give him a privileged view of the European institutional framework.
Mongay warns of the risk of Macron’s mistake in calling early elections. If Le Pen’s ultra party were to triumph in those elections, the French president could be neutralized. And it would open the door for there to be ultra ministers in the negotiations of the EU Council, one of the two legislative bodies of the EU. “Extreme right-wing ministers from a country like France would enter Ecofin, the Eurogroup, the Council of Foreign Affairs, and join those from Italy,” warns Martínez Mongay.
Rebecca Christie, of the Bruegel Institute, also sees France as the most “dangerous” link if Le Pen emerges as the winner of the legislative elections at the end of the month. This would be noticeable in immigration policy and industry. On the first issue, she would join the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni; In the second, Christie expects more pressure “to distribute more aid to French companies.” “It would make things very difficult,” she admits.
A victory for Le Pen’s party, with a neutralized Macron, would trigger a major crisis in the EU. The situation in Germany may be serious, it would be bad for Europe, for NATO and for the policy on Ukraine, but it is temporary, Christie points out. In Berlin there is a clear European alternative with the Christian Democrat opposition of the CDU. On the other hand, the French situation leads us to think about a deeper political problem, with a party system swept away by a vocationally pro-European politician, who, in turn, has contributed to enormously weakening the parties that have done the most to build the institutional edifice. in the EU.
However, in Brussels there is no shortage of those who point out that some of the challenges that the Union has to face in the coming years raise a lot of consensus, so it would be difficult to change that path. For example, the need for Europe to return to the path of competitiveness. “Everyone knows that more money is needed,” say community sources, who also admit that the most likely route is private money with the impetus of the capital market.
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