The post-Cold War world order is crumbling by leaps and bounds and, in the midst of that collapse, the unpunished abuse of force and power thrives, wreaking havoc. “We see this era of impunity everywhere – in the Middle East, in the heart of Europe, in the Horn of Africa, and elsewhere. The level of impunity in the world is politically indefensible and morally intolerable,” UN Secretary General António Guterres cried helplessly this week in his speech at the plenary session of the United Nations General Assembly.
The era of impunity – a concept popularized by former British Foreign Minister David Miliband – is manifested in the most brutal way with the use of military force that causes immense suffering to civilians in violation of international law, the Charter of the United Nations. United Nations, of the decisions of international courts. There are the examples mentioned by Guterres, and there it is, exposed in all its crudeness in the great week of plenary session in the General Assembly, the absolute impotence of the UN.
But the era of impunity also manifests itself in many other aspects. In the abuse of positions of strength in trade, with practices of protectionism and subsidies while a paralyzed WTO (World Trade Organization) cannot act as arbitrator. In tax avoidance by large companies or plutocrats in the midst of a tax system full of havens and holes that the international community has not yet fixed. In a financial system that plunges poor countries into unsustainable debts. In the national oppression of citizen liberties while the world suffers a deterioration in democratic quality. In the terrifying empowerment of gigantic technology companies that are barely able to rein in, because there is no coordinated global action. In the trampling of the right to asylum.
This set of abusive situations underlines the differential character of our time with respect to previous ones. There have always been brutal and unjust wars, and the UN was never effective. But our time is witnessing a collapse of order that makes it easier for abuses to flourish. The previous orders were neither fair, nor admirable, nor perfectly effective. But, in different ways, they illuminated some mechanisms of containment and progress that are now crumbling.
“It’s just that we are emerging from a period of exceptionalism in world history,” says Jeremy Cliffe, editorial director and senior fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. “For most of the modern history of the world, there has been competition between powers, a lack of coordination or institutional governance, failures in cooperation. But, in some way, our current view is conditioned by two recent exceptional periods that shape our expectations about the global order. The first, of course, is the Cold War, where there was a certain stability due to the bloc system. Yes, there was the threat of nuclear annihilation, but at the same time a certain level of order. And then, of course, the immediate post-Cold War era, with the progress of the unipolar phase [por la hegemonía estadounidense] and multilateralist [por el avance de ciertas instituciones internacionales]. So we are conditioned to expect a degree of stability or progress, or one or the other, and now we have neither. We are experiencing a reversal with the exception of recent periods of human history, in which humanity is multipolar, affected by crises that exceed its management capacity, and lacks institutional structures and rights,” says the expert.
Guterres also referred to this in his speech at the UN General Assembly. “For all its dangers, the Cold War had rules. There were direct lines, red lines, guardrails. It seems that today we don’t have them. We also do not have a unipolar world. We are moving towards a multipolar one, but we are not there yet. We are in a purgatory of polarity. And in this purgatory, more and more countries are filling the spaces of political division, doing whatever they want without being held accountable,” said the Secretary General.
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So, during that period, there was a dense network of arms control treaties that offered certain levels of transparency and predictability; but today almost all of them have collapsed. Afterwards, there was an expansion of international trade and the development of the WTO; Today it is paralyzed by a dispute over its permanent arbitration court, whose renewal the United States is blocking. Along the way, China has been showering strategic national industries with enormous subsidies that have evidently altered the global playing field.
Miliband and the study centers Eurasia Group and Chicago Council on Global Affairs are trying to systematize reflection on the concept of impunity with the publication of an annual atlas that tries to x-ray the situation. To do this, they have defined five key areas: conflicts and violence, human rights abuse, economic exploitation, environmental degradation, governance without accountability. The study detects a worsening situation in the period from 2018 to 2023 compared to that between 2012 and 2017. Specifically, 2023 obtained the same overall rating as 2022, but the study only contemplated until the month of September, and therefore It does not reflect either the crisis in the Middle East – which began in October – nor the horrific aftermath of the conflict in Sudan. There are fears that the next report will show a decline.
Wars
The wars in Ukraine and the Middle East are obviously great symbols of this era of impunity in a crumbling order.
The first unleashed a resounding condemnation in the UN General Assembly – backed by 141 countries – but without any practical consequences. International justice has issued an arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin, who, however, was able to visit Mongolia without problems at the beginning of the month, a member country of the International Criminal Court, which ignored its obligation to arrest him.
Israel’s reaction to the Hamas terrorist attack has also spurred resounding condemnations in the UN General Assembly without any real consequences. Neither have the ruling of the United Nations International Court that required precautionary measures from Israel nor its advisory opinion, which considers the occupation of Palestinian territories an abuse that must stop immediately and for which it must pay compensation.
Meanwhile, the number of refugees and internally displaced persons has reached historic highs, with 117 million counted by the UN.
But there is more and, without going into the suffering due to violence, the suffering of misery can be observed. Guterres noted that, of the 75 poorest countries in the world, a third are worse today than five years ago. Extreme inequality is a form of abuse.
In the midst of this decomposition of the world order that seems to return to a state of instability typical of other times, there is, however, an important differential factor that acts to a certain extent as collagen: the great economic interconnection, never as intense in history as now. .
“We live in a time with marked interdependencies, and these can slow down certain processes,” says Ilke Toygür, director of the Center for Global Policy at the School of Politics, Economics and Global Affairs of the Instituto de Empresa. However, the expert warns that this does not represent any guarantee, recalling how the interconnection with Russia has not prevented its aggression against Ukraine. “This situation is not going to save us from disruptions in the future.” Cliffe agrees: “There is certainly unprecedented economic interdependence. “This is a significant political tool that can be used, but it is not a guarantee against conflict.”
This reality of clashes of powers, of abuses of force, of order that is breaking down is moving the world away from the dream of multilateralism, of a global system based on representative institutions and shared norms through which to channel international relations. The outlook is certainly not hopeful, but that does not mean that there are no areas of possible progress.
“I see three areas in which it is possible to advance: the fight against climate change with adequate financing for fragile countries; “Ensure fair digitalization and debt relief for countries in which the pressure is unsustainable, so that they can use these resources to improve the living conditions of their citizens,” says Toygür.
