The campaign continues. In the final stretch, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will once again tour the decisive states, where the election will be decided. However, for 42 million Americans, the die has already been cast. They have cast their ballot, either in person or by mail, through the different early voting mechanisms contemplated by the States. The figure is lower than that of 2020, a record year in early voting due to the pandemic. The known data show a great mobilization of voters registered as Republicans, especially in the decisive states. To what extent does that anticipate any trend for the final result? Nobody knows. While in 2020, Donald Trump and the Republicans demonized voting by mail and asked their voters to go to the polls on official election day; This time, however, they are encouraging early voting.
In the United States, each State organizes voting in its own way, within minimum limits established by federal legislation. The deadlines and requirements for voting by mail and early voting in person are different. So are the rules for voter registration, identification, the shape of the ballots and the counting system. There are States where it is easy to register and vote and others where the elections are poorly organized and endless queues form. Furthermore, the information provided by States on who is exercising their right to vote in advance is not homogeneous either. Some break down information about whether voters are registered as Republicans, Democrats or Independents, while others do not. Likewise, there are those that provide data on age, sex and race; although the majority do not spread this information. Therefore, photography is always diffuse.
With the most recent data, 42 million citizens have already voted early, according to data compiled by the Election Lab at the University of Florida. That is the equivalent of 27% of the 155 million Americans who went to the polls in 2020, but it is clearly below those who had already voted four years ago when there were the same days left for the elections as now.
Thus, there are 21.1 million citizens who have voted in person, at the electoral centers set up for this purpose. In addition, another 21.3 million votes have been received by mail, a method requested, at the moment, by more than 65 million people. The numbers for these early voting elections are the second highest in history. In 2020, with the pandemic, all early voting records were shattered. The States provided formulas to avoid the risk of contagion – many have been maintained – and around 70% of the votes were in advance or by mail.
Michael Conroy (AP)
In the general count, voters registered as Democrats are ahead, with 8.4 million ballots, 40% of those identified. The advantage over the Republicans, however, has narrowed greatly compared to 2020. There are already 7.6 million ballots from their registered voters, 36% of the total. In addition, another 4.8 million independent citizens (24%) (who are not registered in any party or are registered in minority parties) have voted. That a voter is registered for a party does not necessarily mean that he or she will vote for it. Furthermore, there is no data on more than 20 million voters, since they have exercised their right in States that do not break down their affiliation.
Although early voting has fallen significantly throughout the country, in the seven decisive states it is close to or above the figures from four years ago. And that’s where Republicans are especially mobilizing, compared to 2020. Back then, Trump was spreading conspiracy theories that mail-in voting was rigged and asking to go to the polls on Election Day; However, this year it celebrates and encourages early voting (although not always).
“We are breaking records with votes. Early voting is record. Trump people are coming out, they are voting like crazy. And, normally, we have our vote at the end,” the former president said on Friday at a rally in Traverse City (Michigan). “It will be the greatest political victory in the history of our country,” he added.
Of the seven decisive states, there are three in which the authorities do not facilitate the political affiliation of voters: Georgia, where records of attendance at the polls have been broken, Michigan and Wisconsin. Of the other four, unlike 2020, Republicans are ahead in North Carolina, Arizona and Nevada. In Pennsylvania, the advantage is Democratic, but significantly smaller than in 2020.
In North Carolina, another State where records are being broken despite the logistical difficulties associated with recovery tasks due to the impact of the hurricane Helene, Republicans have cast 940,000 ballots (34.3%), compared to 910,000 for Democrats (33.2%) and 891,000 for independents. Trump won North Carolina in 2020 by 1.3 points, even though Democrats at this point had a lead of about 15 points in early voting.
In Arizona, that trend is accentuated. The count shows 542,000 ballots from Republican voters (42%), compared to 454,000 from Democrats (35%) and 297,000 independents (23%), which contrasts with the 10 points difference that the Democrats had at this point in 2020. Joe Biden won Arizona by 10,457 votes in 2020.
Something similar is happening in Nevada, where the Republicans have erased the advantage of more than 10 points that the Democrats had and now have a difference in favor of five points. Thus, 244,000 of its members (40%) have cast their vote, compared to 213,000 Democrats (35%) and 155,000 independents (25%). Finally, Biden won that state by 2.4 points in 2020.
The Democrats are still clearly ahead in Pennsylvania, where there is no early voting in person, but everything is done by mail – the formula most demonized in the past by Republicans, although they now promote it. Of the ballots received in the most important of the decisive states, 762,000 (59.4%) correspond to voters registered as Democrats, while another 390,000 are from Republicans (30.4%) and 130,000 (10.2%), from independent.
That may seem like a success for the Democrats, but in 2020, with the same margin for voting day, the difference was about 70%-20% in their favor and Biden ended up winning Pennsylvania by just one point when counting all the ballots. The scrutiny may be somewhat less agonizing this year than in 2020, when ballots arrived by mail were admitted up to three days after the election date. This time, the limit is 8:00 p.m. on November 5.
The Republican rise in early voting, Trump’s improvement in the polls and also in the betting houses and even the evolution of Treasury bonds and the dollar in the financial markets seem to tip the balance a little on the former president’s side. However, the distortions introduced by covid four years ago and those derived from the 180-degree turn of the Republican leaders regarding early voting force the figures to be taken with great caution. Counting, including votes received in advance, does not begin until election day. It will be then, or in the following days, when the winner is known.
