“American catastrophe,” the Ukrainian newspaper headlined its main article on September 26. Pravda. Volodymyr Zelensky returned from the United States last Friday with unflattering signs for an increasingly unlikely Ukrainian ability to push back Russia on the battlefield. The Republicans made it clear that the priority is for kyiv to make concessions to close the conflict with Russia; President Joe Biden announced a new military aid package valued at 7.2 billion euros, but denied that his long-range missiles could be used on Russian soil. The American press has warned that the “plan for victory” with which Zelensky traveled did not convince the White House. And at the United Nations General Assembly, which was held last week in New York, the wind also blew less in favor of the defense interests of the European country.
“Peace is closer than we can believe,” Zelensky said on September 23 in a television interview. ABCin the preludes to his American journey. The Ukrainian president is in a hurry and has demanded that his allies agree on their “plan for victory” before the end of this year. This military plan should give Ukraine one last push in the war to reach hypothetical peace negotiations with Russia with greater force. The messages from Ukraine’s partners that have taken place this September indicate that this negotiation should take place as soon as possible.
The Russian advance on the Donetsk front has been constant since this summer without the Ukrainian Armed Forces being able to reverse the situation. The invading army has this week taken control of the city of Vugledar, besieging the municipality of Toretsk and, most importantly, Pokrovsk. Added to this is the escalation of war between Israel and Iran, a situation of maximum tension that is diverting attention from the West to the Middle East.
But the clock for Ukraine above all is set by the elections in the United States and the inauguration in January of the next president. As the new NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutte, said in his first public conference on October 1, “Ukraine probably would not exist today without the support of the United States.” Donald Trump humiliated Zelensky at every election rally he participated in while the Ukrainian leader was in the United States. He called him “the best commercial of all time, who takes 100 billion every time he comes to our country,” he said. who is campaigning for Vice President and Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, and reiterated that when he is president, aid to Ukraine will end. In their meeting, Trump said that he had a “very good relationship” with both him and the Russian Vladimir Putin and that his goal is for the two to reach an agreement.
This coincided with the sit-down given to Zelensky by the leader of the Republican majority in Congress, Mike Johnson, for an alleged collaboration of the Ukrainian leader in the Democratic campaign, and with a drop in interest among representatives of the US legislative branch throughout What Zelensky had to tell them, as he explained The New York Times.
Oleg Saakian, Ukrainian political scientist and founder of the National Platform for Sustainability and Cohesion, summarized on September 30 at a conference in kyiv the three factors that had harmed Zelensky’s trip to the United States: the electoral campaign; the war between Israel, Hamas and Hezbollah, which captured the attention of the UN, and the disruptive figure of Trump.
Saakian affirmed that the “plan for victory” that Zelensky presented in Washington, and of which few details are known, is above all a political strategy, a coup d’état. Members of the Biden Administration have explained to The Wall Street Journal already Financial Times that the document has left them “indifferent.” The British newspaper explained this Tuesday that, in parallel meetings with the UN assembly, possible concessions to end the war were constantly on the table in Ukrainian diplomatic meetings.
The words of the German Foreign Minister, Annalena Baerbock, on September 25 at the UN, to urge an end to the conflict, were especially relevant. “We need an end to this war,” Baerbock said, because Russia must be prevented from destroying all of Ukraine. For the German minister, the peace that must be achieved “is a peace that means guaranteeing that Ukraine is a free and independent country. It means security guarantees.”
Zelensky’s plan for victory includes demanding Ukraine’s entry into NATO within months. Finnish President Alexander Stubb stated on September 27 at the Helsinki Security Forum that it was unfeasible for Ukraine to join the Atlantic Alliance in such a short time. Stubb assumed its entry into NATO was certain, but after it was accepted as a member of the European Union.
Rutte’s visit to kyiv
Rutte, who this Thursday visited kyiv for the first time as Secretary General of NATO, stressed that the future of Ukraine in the Atlantic Alliance “is closer than ever” and that the defense of this country “is also the defense of the members of NATO.” Rutte did not go into details about when Ukraine could join NATO, or what alternatives there are to it.
The Ukrainian Government has reiterated this summer that the country will be ready to access the EU at the end of 2025. This calendar caused a clash this September between Zelensky and the Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorksi, who alerted the Ukrainian president that his expectations They are unlikely to materialize. The Ukrainian Foreign Ministry also responded angrily this September to Sirkorski when he proposed that a solution for the Crimean peninsula, illegally annexed by Russia, is to convert it into a UN protectorate and in 20 years organize a referendum to decide which country it belongs to. part.
Czech President Petr Pavel also received a protest from the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry by calling for September 23 in The New York Times that Ukraine must be “realistic”: “The most likely outcome of the war will be that part of Ukraine remains under Russian occupation, at least temporarily.”
The Ukrainian Government once again issued a statement of protest because the spokesperson for the Swiss Foreign Ministry, Nicolas Bideau, announced that his country supported the peace proposal led by China and Brazil. This initiative has been ruled out by Zelensky because he considers that it plays into the hands of Russian interests. Bideau even said he regretted the warlike messages that both Ukrainians and Russians expressed at the UN General Assembly. The spokesperson’s statements have especially hurt in kyiv, because Switzerland organized and supported the summit of the so-called peace formula that Zelensky leads last June.
Mijailo Samus, director of the Ukrainian think tank New Geopolitics, explains to this newspaper that he has perceived a change in Ukraine’s allies, among whom there is more talk of “a pragmatic solution to the war.” Despite this, officially the alliance’s position remains that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have to continue fighting. The key, according to Samus, is for Biden to give his authorization to use long-range missiles against military targets in Russia. “This would put the operations of the Russian army on the ropes and give room for negotiations.”
Samus adds that it is essential that before the time comes to sit down with the Russians, the invader’s hegemony in Crimea must be weakened, destroying access to the peninsula: “Guaranteeing Ukraine’s exit to the Black Sea is an existential issue.”
For Ukraine to push back Russia, it would need to multiply all the military aid received so far several times. Zelensky can hold on to the hope that Harris represents. Saakian confirmed that the Democrat’s speech is even clearer in defending Ukrainian interests than Biden’s. The US vice president was forceful in an appearance with Zelensky on September 27: “There are some in my country who would force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, who would demand that Ukraine be neutral and that it renounce its security relations with other nations. These proposals are the same as Putin’s. They are not proposals for peace, but for surrender. “They are unacceptable and dangerous.”