The advance of the legislative elections sows disorder in French politics

The advance of the legislative elections has turned French politics upside down. The decision, which President Emmanuel Macron announced by surprise on Sunday after suffering a humiliating defeat in the European championships, is dynamiting the right, confronting the left with its contradictions, and opens a huge question about the future of Macronism. After the elections on June 30 and July 7, nothing will be the same in France.

These days we are seeing scenes that no one would have ever imagined. Two examples. A president, Macron, bringing forward elections and thus risking his own party being left out of the Government and the rivals he promised to weaken throughout his term taking power. Restlessness among his people, and the feeling that the leader is pushing them into the abyss, or to be left without a seat.

More scenes, typical of vaudeville. The head of a historic party, which has produced presidents of the Republic such as Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, quartered in his office and in rebellion. His lieutenants have dismissed him for wanting to make a pact with the extreme right. Eric Ciotti, president (or no longer) of Los Republicanos (LR), looks out the window and assures journalists from there: “I’m working.”

There are three ideological blocks in France: a left dominated by the eurosceptics and sovereignists of Jean-Luc Mélenchon; Macron’s broad center, and an ultranationalist right, that of Marine Le Pen’s National Regroupment (RN). The parliamentary dissolution and the short deadlines to present candidacies force the three blocks to do programmatic and alliance work in less than a week that usually requires months, if not years.

If Macron’s objective was to press the accelerator and complete the remodeling of the political landscape that began in 2017 by jibarizing the socialists and the moderate right, success is partial. The right comes out very shaken this week; The left is holding its own for now.

The only party that truly feels strong is Le Pen’s RN, triumphant on Sunday and which polls place in first position in the legislative elections. It is the only party that attracts personalities from the others. Ciotti is one. Another is Marion Maréchal, Le Pen’s niece. She headed the European list of Reconquista, the party of the ultra talk show host Éric Zemmour. Now Maréchal has declared that he supports the RN in the legislative elections, along with four other MEPs elected from Reconquista. “It is the world record of betrayal,” Zemmour was outraged.

Everything changes, and fast. Today there are, for example, two parties with the name of Los Republicanos (LR), the traditional right-wing formation twinned with the Spanish PP. One is the one that Ciotti says he still presides over. The other LR is that of the barons, the senators and the deputies (except Ciotti and another parliamentarian), and these republicans They voted unanimously on Tuesday, in the political bureau, to expel the leader, who has filed a complaint in court. The two LRs, the ciottista and the others fight over the story. Where? On social networks. The X account (former Twitter) was in the hands of the anti-Ciotti for a few hours; that of Facebook, of the pro-Ciotti.

The left, whose main parties attended the European elections separately, is also experiencing its moment of truth. Its ambition is, at a minimum, to be the first opposition force to a hypothetical far-right government. After reaching an agreement in principle to present single candidacies and share the majority of constituencies (299 for Mélenchon’s France Insoumise, 175 for the Socialist Party, 92 for the ecologists, 90 for the communists), its leaders negotiated on Thursday against the clock. the remaining candidacies and a common program.

Is not easy. The socialists led by Raphaël Glucksmann had a better result in the European elections than Mélenchon’s list. And many are reluctant to join the coalition unless the Melenchonistas commit to increasing military aid to Ukraine or support the European construction project. The radical sector’s positions on Israel and Hamas also pose problems for moderates.

End of cycle

And the (still) presidential majority? There is an air of the end of the cycle. This majority is made up of the three parties that support Macron: his own, Renaissance, the centrist MoDem and the moderate conservative Horizons. Although they make up the first group in the National Assembly, they do not reach the absolute majority, and this is where part of the problems that led the president to end the legislature come from.

Since Sunday night, when Macron addressed the French to call the polls, the most she seems paralyzed. Long faces, like those seen in the official black and white photos of Macron announcing to his ministers on Sunday that he was bringing forward the elections. Deputies who are beginning to distance themselves from Macron and think that he is no longer an asset, but a burden. Confusion even in the highest ranks of the State. “There was another way,” lamented the president of the National Assembly, the Macronist Yaël Braun-Pivet.

There is, therefore, a presidential majority, but it could disappear after the second round, on June 7. And once this has happened, and with a weakened president and in cohabitation with an opposition prime minister, what will remain of Macronism?

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