At the recently concluded Paris Olympics, Afghan Manizha Talash staged an unusual act of protest. In her routine, she breakdancing,This representative of the refugee team wore a cape on which one could read: “Free Afghan women.” Talash was disqualified, but her gesture went around the world because of the personal story that prompted her protest: the young woman escaped from Afghanistan in 2021, after the Taliban took control of the country following the withdrawal of US troops. This Thursday marks three years since the capture of Kabul, the capital. Since then, the fundamentalists who govern the country have cemented their power without any real political or military opposition. They are open to dialogue with the aim of gaining legitimacy from an international community that promotes rapprochement, in order to avoid an escalation of war.
Since the Taliban returned to power, Afghan women have been living under brutal repression: they cannot move freely and are prohibited from accessing many jobs (they cannot be judges, MPs, journalists, etc.). They cannot play sports, visit parks or go to the hairdresser. Girls, meanwhile, cannot study beyond primary school. The UN warned last year that women in Afghanistan are suffering from a situation that could be described as “apartheid “gender”.
The experts consulted agree that an attempt to overthrow the fundamentalists would be enormously difficult, an operation that Western foreign ministries are not considering at the moment, especially in an international situation as volatile as the current one, with the wars in Ukraine and Gaza underway. On the contrary, some countries have shown themselves to be “more open” to negotiating with the Afghan leaders, given the possibility that they may remain in power.
“Normalisation of relations with the Taliban does not mean that there is recognition by the Government [solo Nicaragua y China han entablado relaciones diplomáticas con el Emirato Islámico]”But it does show that states have realized that there is no choice but to talk to them, as there is no alternative that can take control,” Javid Ahmad, an expert at the think tank Atlantic Council.
The expert explains that, unlike armed groups such as the Houthis in Yemen, the Taliban are willing to engage in dialogue and allow foreign NGOs to operate, which is why several countries have maintained contact with the authorities. de facto. In September 2021, the EU had already stated that it would have to “engage with the new Afghan government”, which did not mean recognising it, but rather having an “operational commitment”, in the words of the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell. Similarly, the US has maintained a constant flow of money to the country these three years: more than 2 billion dollars (about 1.8 billion euros) in humanitarian aid, funds that largely sustain the Afghan economy.
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Avoid a new conflict
Another argument countries use for not intervening directly is that they want to avoid a conflict like the one that raged on for 20 years — which began in 2001 with the US invasion and ended in 2021 with its withdrawal, agreed upon by Republican Donald Trump and chaotically executed by Democrat Joe Biden. “The US and its allies were ready to leave in 2021. They were fatigued, as no one expected the conflict to drag on for so long. They definitely don’t want to go back,” Marvin Weinbaum, director of Afghanistan studies at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said in a video call.
The alternative is also not convincing: supporting armed resistance movements, which are neither united nor strong enough, could lead to civil war. “Nobody is interested in this scenario,” says Weinbaum, who defends the importance of keeping communication channels open with the Taliban.
For many human rights organisations, this approach is ineffective and could lead to a whitewashing of the regime. “The international community has failed Afghan society. Not only has it failed to hold the Taliban accountable for their crimes, but it has also failed to develop a strategic direction to prevent further damage,” Amnesty International said in a statement. Recently, Afghan women’s groups criticised the UN for allowing the militia to participate in a summit on the future of Afghanistan. Not a single Afghan woman spoke at that meeting.
So where is the middle ground? For Vrinda Narain, a board member of the Women Living Under Muslim Laws organisation, there is none. “The pragmatism of the West and the restoration of economic ties is a slap in the face for Afghan women,” she says in a video call.
Anti-terrorist fight
This cooperation is not limited to economics or humanitarian aid. It also touches on an essential issue: the fight against terrorism. Neighbours such as Iran, Pakistan and Russia, as well as the US and the EU, welcome the Taliban taking on the Central Asian branch of the Islamic State, known as ISIS-K, which has a significant presence in Afghanistan.
“This group has gained more attention and its operations abroad have become more prominent, but until the threat reaches the West, intervention by these states is unlikely,” Ahmad said. ISIS-K claimed responsibility for the Moscow concert hall bombing in March and the attack in the Iranian city of Kerman in January, which left more than 80 dead. “The terrorists are acting as the Taliban did in their time: they seek to undermine the sense of security and loosen the control of the central government,” he added.
The experts consulted paint several scenarios for the future of Afghanistan: on the one hand, it is possible that the less extremist factions of the Taliban will achieve a change in the power leadership, justified by the need of the Islamic regime to adapt in order to survive, and especially if it seeks international legitimacy. On the other hand, the Taliban can continue to govern as they have for the past three years without having to sacrifice their religious beliefs, at the expense of women’s rights.
The other way – as happened in the Arab Spring – is for Afghan society to lose patience after years of repression, but above all because of a declining economic situation. According to the World Bank, poverty stalks half of the more than 40 million Afghans. “If an uprising occurs, it will not be because of harassment of women, but because of unemployment. Poverty and the inability to feed your family is seen as something worse than threats from the Taliban or ISIS. If the regime cannot provide for your family, society will do everything possible to remove them from power,” says Ahmad. This popular reaction, although still contained, would have the protagonism of women, Narain affirms: “The democratic movement is led by Afghan women. They are not afraid and at some point they will take to the streets despite the personal cost. They are fighting and our task is to listen to them.”
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