The new Syria tries to obtain another political victory, even if partial, a month and a half after a rapid rebel operation liquidated more than five decades of dictatorship of the El Asad family: the lifting of international sanctions. This Monday, the foreign ministers of the European Union study a gradual relief of the punitive measures approved against the regime after the violence unleashed after the protests of March 2011 and the subsequent armed conflict. A debate that is lived with some hope in Damascus.
As the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas has already advanced, the repeal of these obstacles, which have caused enormous ravages on the Syrian economy – undergoing prices, shortage, energy asphyxiation and increased poverty – will be directly linked to Steps that the new administration of the Arab country takes, led de facto For the veteran fighter Ahmed al Shara, towards a “tangible” political transition. This is: with guarantees of security and respect for fundamental rights.
This premise, which shares the United States, the great sanctioner of Syria, keeps a certain complexity, after more than 13 years of war and after only seven weeks from the rebel conquest of Damascus. “USA and the EU consider that the sanctions are instruments that they can use to press Syrian provisional authorities to advance towards a more inclusive and transparent political system,” says Steven Heydemann, expert from Washington’s Brookings Institution. “The problem,” he continues, “is that, unless the new authorities can demonstrate to Syrians that they are in a better situation, the probability that the transition will succeed will be greatly reduced.”
An economy in ruins
Until the outbreak of the civil war, the Syrian economy was more than homological to that of many neighboring countries. With just under $ 3,000 (about 2,858 euros) of rent per inhabitant, it was practically along with Egypt or Jordan. Nothing remains of that after the long contest and the batches of international sanctions, which have reduced GDP by 84%, according to the World Bank.
While these restrictions expressly excluded basic products such as food or medicines, including energy and financial sectors, their effect has extended to the entire society and all areas of their economy. “I don’t think they affected the members of the previous regime, but more to the daily reality of the people,” says the superior of Aleppo’s Marist brothers, Georges knows. All the donations they receive have to go to a bank account of neighbor Lebanon and then transport it in cash through the border. The same has happened to them with medical equipment.
“Even if essential medicines and products are technically excluded from sanctions, bank restrictions make their import much more difficult. Companies [del extranjero] They fear being subject to secondary sanctions or having problems with payments, which leads to shortage and surcharge in certain basic products, ”explains Baraa Khurfaan, analyst at the Tahrir Institute. Vital sectors, such as construction or energy, he says, have problems due to the lack of investments and barriers to the importation of machinery and spare parts. “And all this delays the recovery, reconstruction and creation of jobs.”
Although not everything can be attributed to the punitive measures of the US and its allies – the physical destruction itself caused by the war has left very deep scars and six million refugees -, the sanctions are a key factor of economic decomposition. 70% of the Syrian population depends today on humanitarian aid and 90% is under the threshold of poverty, according to UN figures. The cost of life has tripled in just three years.
Downward prices
It is true, he says, that in recent weeks, with the progressive opening of the country and the sending of fuel from the Gulf and Turkey countries, food prices – mostly, re -exported from the neighboring country – have been cheaper . Not so those of other products and utensils. “Everything that is food is available in abundance. And many products that were previously prohibited by the regime, such as foreign cookies or soft drinks, now you can find them. Prices have dropped into the areas that [antes] They were controlled by the regime, ”says Yaser, a young man from Aleppo. On the other hand, in the areas under rebel control – which until the final fall of El Asad were much better supplied than the rest of Syria – prices have risen, according to a neighborhood of Azaz who works for a humanitarian organization.
There is also a middle class that tries to make their way and operate as it would do it to the other side of the border. Ahmed Kanjo, a 34 -year -old Syrian, a native of Aleppo and recently returned to his native country after several years residing in Turkey, says by message: “Bank transactions are prohibited, which means that I cannot receive or send transfers or buy No service that requires electronic payment, even if it is an educational platform. ” “To this we must add the prohibition of fuel purchases and the sanctions that prevent reconstruction,” he adds. “This process implies starting to use thousands of workers, which will significantly drive the economy.”
Together with the decision made Brussels – the Kallas team plans a lifting of the obstacles by “stages”, as reported by the Reuters agency -, it remains to be known what Donald Trump will do with the sanctions imposed by the US, the power that with More Brío activated his machinery against two fundamental sectors for the Syria of El Asad: the energetic and the financial. The restrictions on oil marketing have sunk production, which since the beginning of the war has gone from more than 300,000 barrels to just 40,000. And international transfers, remittances of emigrants included, remain a chimera.
Both groups of sanctions are called to be the first to fall. Although today modest in volume, the return of the Syrian crude to the international market would mean an injection of resources that Damascus needs more than ever. In the case of the financial sector, the lifting of the clippers would make it easier for emigrants to send money to family and friends, and allow the private sector to do business again in Syria. Interest is not missing: there are dozens of Turkish companies and other countries in the region – many of them construction – who want to do business again there. “The end of the sanctions so that banks and companies have the confidence they will need to participate in recovery,” says Heydemann.
The energy
“Those who have lived under [el régimen de] The Asad is the authentic heroes, ”says Syrian economist Samir Aita, president of the Circle of Arab Economists by email. Although the impact of the sanctions has been widespread, laminating the income of the population, Aita puts the energy focus. “They have limited access to electricity, which [en algunas zonas] It is still restricted one hour from every 12. And something similar occurs with gasoline, which arrives by smuggling through Turkey or Lebanon, but at international prices that many cannot face, ”he describes.
The shortage of energy, paradoxical in a country that, due to fundamental, should be a net exporter of crude, has had a domino effect on other sectors: agricultural and industries such as pharmacist, in other relatively competitive times and focused on export.
Washington applied the first economic sanctions on Syria in the seventies. A punishment that rose from level to the early 2000s. It was not, however, until 2011 when the great climbing – lock included in most operations of its central bank. Aita believes that the American sanctions system on Syria is “the most complex” that has ever been launched. Its elimination, therefore, will also be difficult: many of them are laws and, therefore, need the approval of American congress and Senate.
At the beginning of January, the Biden administration approved an exemption – provisional and very partial – about some of these punishment measures, especially in the energy sector. “It is a positive step,” says Heydemann, from Brookings Institution, “but maintains sanctions to investments and loans. These measures are still difficult to deal with a devastating economic crisis and rebuild essential infrastructure, such as energy. ”
