Ukraine will be “priority number one, number two and number three” at the NATO summit in Washington, according to a senior European official who requested anonymity. The war-torn country will be the focus of discussions at the meeting taking place this week in Washington, which marks the 75th anniversary of the Alliance on Tuesday. Specifically, the allies will spend most of its two days of plenary sessions agreeing on the details of their support for Kiev in the war against Russia. Member countries will also discuss the rise of China and the fulfillment of its defense objectives, at a meeting in which all eyes are on the host, President Joe Biden: the American is under pressure to demonstrate to his allies, and to his own voters, that he is fit to continue leading his government.
The summit comes at a crucial time for the invaded country. The Russian offensive has stabilized after the resumption of US military aid to kyiv since April, but the pressure continues, helped by what the US and its allies consider to be key assistance from China, North Korea and Iran to Moscow’s military industry. A barrage of missiles on Monday hit, among other targets, a children’s hospital in kyiv and left more than 40 dead. Russia, the allies believe, believes it can win the war simply by waiting for the allies to tire and withdraw their aid to Ukraine. Faced with this, according to European sources, the allied countries want to demonstrate a long-term commitment to the invaded country, in a show of “unity” and “determination.”
To coordinate this aid, NATO will announce a new command in Germany, coordinated by a three-star general, according to White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan at a defense industry forum on Tuesday.
There will not be, as there was not at the previous summit in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, a formal offer to Ukraine to join the Alliance: the members do not want to be put in the position of having to respond to an invocation of Article 5, the joint commitment to respond to external aggression against one of its members. But, as a senior official in the Biden administration said, the idea is to ensure that kyiv is ready to join “from the first moment” once the partners reach a consensus on its membership.
In an intervention in the think tank Speaking to the Atlantic Council on Monday, Michael Carpenter, the head of Europe for the White House National Security Council, outlined what the structure of this “bridge” to entry would look like: a network of bilateral security agreements, promises of economic and military support, and the establishment of a new NATO office in kyiv, headed by a civilian command.
“We want Ukraine to have the capacity, the availability, to be able to start working together with the rest of the Alliance from minute one, as soon as they receive the invitation,” Carpenter said.
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Among other things, the United States plans to announce new steps for Ukraine’s defense, including possibly the transfer of F-16 fighters; members are also expected to commit to sending more Patriot batteries for the invaded country’s air defense.
Last week, outgoing NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg stressed that allies have invested around $43 billion (€40 billion) annually in assistance to Ukraine since the start of the war in February 2022. The members’ aim is to maintain this level of support next year as well.
One thing that remains undecided until the last moment is whether, in its final statement, the Alliance will declare Ukraine’s path to NATO membership “irreversible.” Hours before the start of the meeting, this key word, which kyiv is demanding, remained in brackets (indicating a lack of consensus) in the draft, according to European sources.
But beyond Ukraine, the summit will also be marked by Biden’s performance in his first international meeting since his catastrophic electoral debate with Trump two weeks ago. Since then, the president has been subject to intense scrutiny of his every move, every word he speaks, looking for signs that clarify whether or not he is fit to lead his country, now and in a second term.
His conduct over the three days of intense meetings, which will culminate in a lengthy press conference, will be key to calming concerns and silencing (or rekindling) calls for his resignation as the Democratic presidential candidate. A misstep could trigger renewed calls among Democratic ranks for an alternative candidate. And it could trigger anxiety among allies who are concerned about the prospect of an election victory for Donald Trump, who has been critical of the organization in the past and has even threatened not to defend countries that do not meet the defense spending target of 2% of GDP.
The US president has a busy schedule ahead of him, although the White House denies that he intends to display the Democrat’s vigour. Biden is scheduled to give a speech on Tuesday at the ceremony to commemorate the 75th anniversary of the Alliance at the Mellon Auditorium, in the heart of Washington. On Wednesday, he will participate in the working sessions and hold a bilateral meeting with the new British Prime Minister, the Labour Party member Keir Starmer, in his international debut as leader of his country after winning the elections on July 4. That evening, the head of state will receive representatives of the participating countries at the White House for an official dinner.
On Thursday, Biden will complete his participation in the plenaries before chairing a meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, attending a meeting with the countries that have signed bilateral defense agreements with kyiv and holding talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in a bilateral session. The final touch will be the press conference, which the White House has promised will be longer than its usual ones when it appears with foreign leaders, in which it only grants two questions to American media and another two to media from the country whose leader is receiving the meeting.
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