This is the web version of ‘Rumbo a la Casa Blanca’, Morning Express’ weekly newsletter on the US elections. If you want to subscribe for free, you can do so atthis link.
Hello, readers.
When looking back at the electoral history of the United States, it is common to refer to the “October surprise.” An unexpected event that breaks out just a few weeks, or days, before the November election and can change the voting landscape from one day to the next: remember, for example, the reopening of James Comey’s FBI investigation into Hillary Clinton’s emails in 2016, when Trump ended up winning despite the polls being against him. Or the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2008, which ended up putting Barack Obama in the White House.
This year, if there is a surprise in October, it will have to be monumental. Because since June we have been going from one surprise to another, and I am going because it is my turn. To the point that the abnormal is already becoming the norm. Whether it is a debate as historic as it is disastrous for Joe Biden, an attack against Trump, Biden’s resignation from the Democratic candidacy in favor of Kamala Harris, another debate that turns the tables… and this Sunday, a new alleged assassination attempt against the Republican candidate.
As of this writing, there are still far more unknowns than certainties surrounding this incident. How was it possible that no one detected until almost the last moment that the suspect, Ryan Wesley Routh, was stationed in the hedge of Trump’s golf club, when he had apparently been hiding there for hours? Did this Ukraine-obsessed construction worker know that the former president would be playing golf at that very moment? Did he really want to attack the candidate he voted for in 2016? What was his motivation?
And, of course, the million-dollar question: will the incident have any impact on Americans’ voting intentions? At the moment, it seems that in any case it could further solidify the polarization between the two halves of the United States: the Republican territory that sees Trump as a hero and martyr and the Democratic side, which is not willing to see the former president sitting in the Oval Office again. The incident is likely to reaffirm both sides’ opinions, and mobilize them to go out and vote – just when the deadlines for casting ballots in advance are beginning to open in the various states. Last week, Alabama began accepting mail-in ballots; this Monday, it was Pennsylvania’s turn.
Let’s remember that early voting is essential for both parties: every ballot that arrives is a bird in the hand without having to wait until November 5. In particular, the Democrats have based much of their strategy on encouraging their supporters to cast their vote as soon as possible. The Republicans, who already saw in 2020 how this system benefited their rivals, are also trying to jump on that bandwagon. But they have a much more uphill battle: Trump has spent years accusing this voting method of encouraging electoral fraud without evidence. He still criticizes it from time to time. And for his followers, whatever the former president says is gospel.
But let’s change the subject a bit. We mentioned Pennsylvania earlier. This post-industrial swing state, with an older-than-average population and a majority white population, is very likely to be the one that ends up handing the key to the White House to one candidate or another. Of the seven key states, it is the largest and most populous, and therefore the one that has the greatest reward in the form of electoral votes: 19. And as any swing territory, the polls are very close. Only six-tenths of a percentage point separate Harris from her Republican rival, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling aggregate.
I’ve been touring it for almost a week, from East to West and from South to North. Much like any of the main candidates in this campaign, who visit it almost every week. My conclusions? Either of them can win. Here’s an example: in Newtown, a swing town within a swing county within Pennsylvania, I interviewed six people on the same block of the main street: three will vote for Kamala Harris; the other three, for Donald Trump. It couldn’t be closer.
It doesn’t matter where they are. Almost every voter I spoke to, whether in progressive Pittsburgh, rural Butler, Latino Allentown or stately Philadelphia, confessed that they had one priority above all others: the economy and an inflation that has been eating away at their monthly paychecks. Add to that the skyrocketing housing prices, and you have a perfect breeding ground for discontent and a desire for change. Which candidate best represents that desire for change is up to the consumer.
A side note: the Latino community now numbers more than a million people and more than 600,000 voters in Pennsylvania, out of a total of 19 million inhabitants. It is true that the majority of those I spoke to declared themselves in favor of the Democrats, in line with the historical alignment of this community in favor of the blue party. But there are some nuances to be noted: it remains to be seen what the participation of the youngest will be, who are generally quite disenchanted with both parties. I have also perceived that the Republicans are making progress among this community, especially among men, in line with what is happening in other groups of voters. Attention, Democrats.
More news on the US elections
Aside from the endless surprises of this campaign and the electoral landscapes of Pennsylvania, we have put out several other articles and news in the last week since the debate. Here they are so you don’t miss anything:
- What do the polls say? Harris and Trump are (almost) tied in terms of winning chances. In four of the key states — Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania — predicting the winner is a bit like flipping a coin.
- The key fight between Harris and Trump for the Puerto Rican vote in the diaspora: from Anuel AA to Miguel Cardona. Both candidates have recently redoubled their efforts to appeal to the growing Puerto Rican electorate, especially in the key state of Pennsylvania, where 80% of the Latino vote is Puerto Rican.
- Trump’s number two persists in the hoax that accuses immigrants of eating pets.“If I have to create stories to focus the American media on the suffering of the American people, I will do it,” JD Vance said in an interview.
- Column | How Trump transformed the ‘grand old party’ to take it to the far rightby Joaquin Estefania.
- Opinion | Donald Trump on the dollar, in his own wordsby Paul Krugman.
