Another unexpected twist in the US presidential campaign with the most shocks in recent history. Political scientists often refer to the “October surprise” as an unexpected event or revelation that arises when there is little time left for the elections and can change the course of the campaign. This year, however, there have been surprises in June, July, August and September, many of them for the history books. The latest, the shooting at Donald Trump’s golf club in Florida this Sunday, which the authorities are investigating as an attempted murder and which has once again shaken up an electoral campaign in which the polls point to a technical tie between the Republican and the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris. The Republicans, who mostly reacted with a message of unity after the first assassination attempt, have now rushed to blame the Democrats.
On June 27, the campaign saw the most consequential presidential debate in American political history. It revealed that President Joe Biden was too old to run for re-election. While the Democrat was refusing to throw in the towel, the attack in Butler, Pennsylvania, took place, in which a gunman shot Trump from a rooftop while he was giving a rally. A bullet hit him in the ear, but could have killed him. Trump reacted with his fist raised as a trickle of blood ran down his face. That iconic image increased his lead in the polls.
The week after the attack, the Republican convention ratified a triumphant Trump, deified by his supporters, as the candidate in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, while Biden realized that he was not in a position to compete. This caused another historic turn in the campaign. The president renounced re-election and handed over the baton to Kamala Harris, who quickly garnered the support of the entire party. In August, the Democratic convention crowned her as the presidential candidate, the first nominee since 1968 who has not gone through the primary system.
The enthusiasm generated by the changeover allowed Harris to take the lead in the popular vote polls, but the election will depend on tens or hundreds of thousands of votes in a handful of decisive states and there the swords are high. The previous milestone of the campaign, the debate that faced both candidates last Tuesday in Philadelphia, seems to have moved the needle relatively little in terms of voting intention, even though all serious polls gave the Democrat the undisputed winner.
As Trump stewed in his frustration — declaring himself the winner of the debate while blaming the moderators for losing it, including somewhat hilarious insinuations that they had given Harris the questions first — he took a break from campaigning in Florida, where he usually resides. On Sunday morning, he had tweeted on Truth, his social network, “I HATE TAYLOR SWIFT” (in capital letters), which after the debate announced his support for Harris. He then went to play golf, his favorite sport, at his club. That was when the incident occurred.
Secret Service agents tasked with protecting the former president spotted a suspicious person hiding in bushes with a rifle while Trump was golfing. The officers opened fire. The suspect, later identified by authorities as Ryan Wesley Routh, 58, a man with a criminal record and obsession with Ukraine, got into his vehicle and drove away but was stopped at a roadblock. Agents found a semi-automatic rifle with a telescopic sight in bushes around the compound.
Knowing what’s happening outside means understanding what’s going to happen inside, so don’t miss anything.
KEEP READING
Although Trump thanked the authorities for their “absolutely exceptional” work, the new attempt to assassinate Trump raises questions about the work of the Secret Service. The attack was prevented and the failures were not as obvious as in Butler, but the fact that a person with a rifle with a telescopic sight could have been close to Trump calls into question once again the effectiveness of the protection.
Uncertain consequences
The political consequences of this second assassination attempt are highly uncertain. The first attack favoured the former president in the polls and prediction markets, which have barely budged this time. Compared with the shooting of Butler in July, in which a bullet slightly wounded him in the ear and the secret service had to evacuate him from the stage of the rally while the signal was being broadcast live, this second incident has lacked that drama.
Trump emerged from the first attack perceived as a hero. This time there were no images of the former president, who was playing golf. It is also unclear how much danger he was in. Being the victim of an attempted attack usually increases citizens’ empathy and solidarity towards the target of the attack. On the other hand, Trump has embraced and defended some episodes of political violence (such as the assault on the Capitol) and has been a divisive and polarizing figure in American politics.
On Monday, as he left the White House for an event in Philadelphia, Biden called on Congress to approve more resources for security. “One thing I want to make clear is that the United States Department of State is a very important part of the United States.” [Secreto] “He needs more help. And I think Congress should respond to his need,” he said, adding: “Thank God the president is fine,” referring to Trump.
Vice President Kamala Harris on Sunday condemned political violence and said she was “deeply disturbed” by the attempted assassination of her rival at the polls in the November 5 election. “As we gather the facts, I will be clear: I condemn political violence. We must all do our part to ensure this incident does not lead to further violence,” Harris said in a statement. “As President Biden has said, our Administration will ensure the Secret Service has all the resources, capabilities, and protective measures necessary to carry out its critical mission,” she added. Harris tweeted that she was glad Trump was okay.
The Republican response has been aggressive. “You are so full of shit. You are not glad he is safe, it is your rhetoric that caused this, AGAIN!!!!!” tweeted Dan Scavino Jr., a senior adviser to Trump’s campaign. There have been many other voices in the Republican Party blaming Democrats for the attempted attack. “The radical left has continued to label Republicans and Americans who simply want a safe and prosperous country as ‘threats to democracy.’ This irresponsible rhetoric is hurting people,” tweeted Anna Paulina Luna, a congresswoman from Florida.
“This rhetoric against President Trump, this narrative that he’s going to be the next dictator, that he’s the next Hitler coming, has to stop. Enough is enough,” Florida Rep. Mike Waltz told Fox News on Sunday. “And when you have this narrative coming from the left, from the media, from elected officials, even, that Trump has to be stopped by any means necessary, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that these people are radicalized and take actions like this,” he added. Meanwhile, the richest man in the world, the tycoon Elon Musk, a Trump ally who spreads hoaxes incessantly, has wondered on his social network why no one is trying to assassinate Biden or Harris. He later deleted the message.
