The Scottish independentists of the SNP (Scottish National Party, in its acronym in English) have clung to the Ignatian maxim, “in times of desolation, do not move”, and have decided to bet on a continuity candidate to weather the storm in the who have been immersed for more than a year. John Swinney (Edinburgh, 60 years old), the longest-serving finance minister since Scotland became self-governing, will be the new chief minister, replacing Humza Yousaf, who resigned last week. At noon this Monday the deadline to submit candidacies for possible primaries in the SNP ended. In the last seven days, one by one, the potential candidates had announced their resignation from office. By being left alone, Swinney has guaranteed himself the election without needing to open a process that would have further agitated the already troubled waters of the SNP.
The new leader of the SNP does not give up the dream of an independent Scotland, but in his first speech he sought the complicity of a broader electorate: “My priorities will be the economy, employment and the cost of living,” he said. “Public health, education, social services or the fight against climate change,” he added.
After the necessary formalities – Yousaf tendering his resignation to King Charles III, and the Home Rule Parliament inducting his successor – Scotland will have a new chief minister. Swinney, who held the position of deputy chief minister in Nicola Sturgeon’s Executive, has until May 2026, when new regional elections must be held in Scotland, to redirect the situation.
But there is a more immediate threat: the UK general election, scheduled for next autumn. If the polls are confirmed, the Labor Party could regain a large part of the deputies that it obtained for decades in a territory with a strong leftist tradition. This would break the hegemony that the SNP has maintained for a decade, and would further aggravate the party’s internal crisis.
Since Nicola Sturgeon fell just short of an absolute majority in May 2021, the party has only gone downhill. The historic independence leader, who took over from Alex Salmond and even improved the prestige and popularity of her party, forged a coalition government with the Greens with the purpose of setting independence as a priority. Sturgeon made two fatal errors. Firstly, both she and her husband, Peter Murrell, ended up involved in a murky scandal surrounding the SNP’s finances, for which they were even arrested for a few hours. Secondly, the Gender Self-Determination Law promoted by her Executive collided with a much more conservative electorate and bases than the chief minister had calculated.
His successor, Yousaf – also considered a continuity candidate at the time – wanted to turn towards the center through two controversial and dangerous measures, when it came to supporting the coalition that kept him in office. The then chief minister renounced the commitment agreed with the Greens to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 75% by 2030, and replicated the decision of Rishi Sunak’s central government to prohibit treatment with puberty blockers for those under 18 years. He rounded off his turn with the expulsion from the Government of the two Green ministers, and the announcement that he planned to govern as a minority.
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The humiliated partners announced their intention to support the two motions of censure presented in the Autonomous Parliament by the Conservatives and the Labor Party. Unable to recruit enough deputies to overcome that challenge, Yousaf resigned from office. His only possibility of continuing to lead the Government would have been to accept the leonine conditions of ALBA, the party founded by the historic independence leader Alex Salmond, which demanded a new unilateral push, in defiance of the London Government, for the cause of secession. . The majority of SNP voters or members are not in favor of reviving radicalism that, according to all surveys, citizens do not want.
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