Scholz’s coalition is precariously resisting pressure to advance elections

The French and Germans experienced the election night of June 9 and the disaster of their ruling parties after the European elections in a very different way. In Paris, Emmanuel Macron disconcerted even those closest to him by surprise dissolving the National Assembly and calling elections. In Berlin, Olaf Scholz almost tiptoed past the Social Democrats’ electoral headquarters and retired to shelter from the downpour in private. The SPD obtained its worst result in more than a century (13.9%), a humiliating third place behind the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has left the chancellor’s leadership shaken and, according to some analysts, sunk.

His coalition with Greens and Liberals added just 31% of the votes with a record participation (64.8%) and left a question floating in the air: will Scholz’s Government last until autumn 2025? After two weeks without movements that seem to indicate a withdrawal from the chancellor, the patient is not out of danger. Quite the opposite. To the spectacular defeat in the European Championships there is now added a challenge with the potential to put an end to the tripartite: the negotiation of next year’s budget.

Scholz and his partners face the arduous task of cutting 40 billion euros from federal spending to cover the 2025 budget deficit. They have proposed reaching an agreement before the beginning of July, before the Bundestag lowers the blinds for the holidays. Of summer. And, as happened last year, the positions could not be further apart. The SPD and the Greens are strongly opposed to cuts in social spending and are in favor of relaxing strict spending rules. The FDP liberals want to comply with them at all costs.

With conservative opposition leaders calling for early elections, the Scholz Government is betting its survival on the card of internal harmony. “The coalition has been very weakened and that will intensify the conflicts within it. The real competition is not between the Government and the opposition, but within the coalition,” says political scientist Wolfgang Merkel, director emeritus of the Berlin Social Sciences Research Center (WZB). In budget negotiations, “the parties will emphasize the particular interests of their own electorate and this will create additional conflicts,” he predicts.

Two and a half years after taking office, Scholz’s conflictive government is at its most delicate moment, with more than two-thirds of Germans dissatisfied with his management. The social democrat presides over the most unpopular Executive in recent decades and he is the worst-rated chancellor, with a personal approval rating that does not reach 30%. “Until now I had considered early elections in Germany quite unlikely,” says political scientist Ursula Münch, director of the Tutzing Academy for Political Education. “They would pose a very high risk for the three Government partners, since all three would incur large losses. But fear is growing that letting things remain the same poses an even greater risk.” This feeling may be momentary, in response to the mood left by the European elections, she concedes, and like Merkel, she believes that “everything will depend on how the budget negotiation develops.”

The European elections have installed a poorly concealed unrest in the Chancellery and in the ministries of Scholz’s partners. Until now, The Greens maintained their hard core of voters, but in the European elections they have sunk (11.9% compared to 20.5% in 2019) like the Social Democrats. This not only causes agitation among the leaders of the parties, but also in the parliamentary groups, explains Münch. “Many deputies are concerned about their return to the Bundestag due to the change in the electoral law and the stipulation of a maximum limit of 630 seats,” he notes. The general secretary of the SPD, Kevin Kühnert, has indicated that he no longer rules out early elections and the party is preparing for that eventuality, “which shows the extent to which the European elections have made everyone nervous,” says the political scientist.

Most analysts rule out an early election in Germany. First of all, because as Thorsten Faas, a political scientist at the Free University of Berlin, emphasizes, none of the three parties has any interest in holding new elections: “Maybe I’m wrong, but I really don’t see any justification.” The Germans’ taste for stability also plays a role. The failure of Scholz and his associates is not enough reason to call citizens back to the polls when there is just over a year left before the scheduled appointment. “The party that breaks the coalition would be especially penalized in the elections,” says Merkel.

Dissolving the Bundestag and therefore calling new elections is much more difficult in Germany than in France. It would be possible through the so-called vote of confidence, which requires the initiative of the chancellor. Only once, in 2005, have there been early elections in Germany. They were forced by Gerhard Schröder through a vote of confidence. He agreed with the Greens to lose it so that the German president, then Horst Köhler, could dissolve Parliament. His intention was to emerge stronger from the elections, but he lost to Angela Merkel and the Social Democrats did not have a chancellor again until 2021, with Scholz’s victory.

The law provides another way to form a new federal government outside of the established deadlines. This is what is known as a constructive vote of no confidence. It provides for the dismissal of the previous chancellor through the election of a new one, without new elections and, therefore, maintaining the balance of forces of the parliamentary groups. But the conservative opposition would not gain much from this solution either. “It cannot be assumed that the CDU/CSU is interested in this. After all, it is likely that they will get many more seats after new elections,” says Münch.

Even if the conservatives wanted to try, they would not be able to achieve a majority that would elect their leader, Friedrich Merz, as an alternative chancellor. He has 195 seats out of a total of 733. “Let us remember that the CDU excludes the Alternative for Germany from the political game, as all democratic parties continue to do,” says political scientist Merkel. Her conclusion is that there are “many” factors that point to the permanence of an “unwanted” coalition until autumn 2025.

Scholz himself has responded in his laconic style to whether new elections are being considered: “No.” He insisted on it again in the summer interview that public television ARD broadcast this Sunday and in which he questioned whether his Government has a future. “We are going to advance together, also by the way in the next general elections, to win them,” he answered with a smile.

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