Listening to Olaf Scholz at the traditional press conference before the summer break, it might seem that the German chancellor is turning a deaf ear to what people think of him. Either he doesn’t read the polls, or he doesn’t care at all. A majority of Germans are unhappy with his management, but that doesn’t seem to influence the political future he imagines for himself: he wants to try to become chancellor again. After almost three years in office, Scholz’s rating has fallen to a low, something that has translated into a poor result for the SPD in the European elections last June. A clue to change course? He thinks not.
The chancellor is convinced that citizens will appreciate his achievements in a turbulent legislative period of constant tension between the three coalition partners (social democrats, greens and liberals) and will end up giving him their trust again. That is why he boasted of having raised the minimum wage to 12 euros an hour, of guaranteeing pensions and of resisting attempts to cut citizens’ income.
On Wednesday, during his last meeting with journalists before retiring for a few weeks – with the exception of the opening of the Olympic Games in Paris on Friday – Scholz confirmed that he will once again be the SPD candidate in the next federal elections, which will be held on 28 September 2025. The chancellor wanted to say goodbye displaying overflowing optimism. He does not seem to have any doubts that he will win the bet: he believes that it is a matter of time, that rejection will soon turn into approval.
The SPD has not yet confirmed him as a candidate, but recent statements by heavyweights such as co-chair Saskia Esken and Defence Minister Boris Pistorius seem to indicate that he has the party behind him. The question is how he could turn around the polls just over a year before the date of the polls. One last week by Forsa showed that barely one in four Germans (23%) are satisfied with Scholz’s work. A state of opinion that is also reflected in the facts. The SPD obtained in the European elections the worst result in its more than a century of history.
“The SPD is no longer a mass party,” says political scientist Wolfgang Schröder, director emeritus of the Berlin Centre for Social Science Research (WZB). “It has been in third place in the German party system for almost two years, with just 15-20% of voter support.” The result of the European Parliament elections left the SPD, with 13.9% of votes, behind the conservatives, who now have around 30% of voter intentions, and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), which has around 18%.
How much Olaf Scholz himself contributed to this decline in popularity in his role as chancellor is debatable, but the question that opened the summer press conference was significant: “Many in the SPD and many citizens are wondering whether you are the right candidate. Is it possible that you want to follow Mr. Biden’s example or are you going to present yourself with the same confidence, so to speak, that Mr. Biden displayed weeks ago?” The first question was on the forehead. Scholz smiled, thanked the “very kind and friendly” question and answered with the unwavering optimism that he would maintain throughout the almost two hours of the conversation: “The SPD is a very united party. We are all determined to enter the next election campaign for the Bundestag together and to win it. I will stand for chancellor again.”
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The leadership question seems to be settled at the top of the SPD, but the membership is far from clear. Only a third of party members believe that Scholz should stand again, according to a recent Forsa poll for the RND. The same number (33%) would be in favour of the defence minister, the cabinet member most highly regarded by Germans, taking the step. Eight percent would like to see co-chairman Lars Klingbeil as a candidate, while the rest opted for other candidates or gave no answer at all. There is also a growing sense of discouragement among the rank and file. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they do not believe that the SPD will again be the party with the most votes, as it was in the 2021 election.
“This should be the best time for political leadership. We are living in a time of extraordinary concentration of major political challenges: from the climate and migration crises to the war in Ukraine and Gaza. But we are seeing weak political leaders, such as those in the United Kingdom in the last 10 years, Macron in France, the chancellor of Austria or Biden in the United States. Scholz is one of them,” Schröder said in conversation with Morning Express.
The chancellor is also penalised by having to govern in a constantly contentious three-party coalition, not to mention his personality: “He has no charisma and does not know how to explain his decisions to the citizens,” says the political scientist. A recent survey shows that the majority (55%) of Germans think that Angela Merkel would have done better than him if she had faced the same crises.
Things would have to change a lot in a year for Scholz to be able to re-establish the three-party system that enabled him to form a government in 2021. His Green partners also collapsed in the European elections and the liberals have long been on the tightrope of the 5% minimum to enter the Bundestag. The only realistic prospect of forming part of a government alliance would be a grand coalition with the conservative CDU and its Bavarian partner CSU. “And it would enter as a junior partner, with half the support of the Christian Democrats,” recalls Schröder.
Journalists constantly reminded Scholz of what the polls say about him and his government – his leading figures, such as the Green Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, and the Liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner, are also at their lowest approval ratings. “By the time the elections are held, we will have turned the polls upside down,” insisted the chancellor, who ended up going into a pollster’s speech: “Poor poll results are an incentive to want to improve them.”
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